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Cat 5

2008 Atlantic Hurricane Competition - Discussion thread

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Please post any thoughts / comments on the competition in here.

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As discussed via PM I think this is a really good idea and hope it gets some response. I'll wait a little while before posting a prediction though.

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Thanks for your comments SS.

I know what you mean about the predictions - as with most things the nearer the time you make the predictions the more accurate you could (should!) be...

However, I am so sceptical about the forecasting in this area I would be willing to offer my predictions for the 2012 season now :lol:

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Thanks for your comments SS.

I know what you mean about the predictions - as with most things the nearer the time you make the predictions the more accurate you could (should!) be...

However, I am so sceptical about the forecasting in this area I would be willing to offer my predictions for the 2012 season now :lol:

That's a good point, emphasis on the should, lol. Hurricane seasons are notoriously hard to predict, my prediction will probably be a pure guess but then I expect that'l be just as good as the professional predictions out there :lol:

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Well my year I'm mainly basing this season off is 1999. There are real similarities with regards to the strength of te la nina and I've noticed some hemispheric scale things hich are similar as well. The problem with basing all on factrs such as that is things can change between now and the start of the hurricane season bu there you go. Another similar seasn may be 1950 which was very active as well with a siilar style la nina...

Both seasons had a high number of majors compared to hurricanes, in other words numerous systems tat became hurricanes went on to become majors whic fits idea of lower shear over the basin in general that you see with la nina.

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I took the well thought out approach, looking at past history, the current trends and searching for any clues that may point me one way or the other.

Then I threw all that aside and just made a pure guess. ;)

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same as above, whens the closing date for entries btw?

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forget that missed the closing date in other thread

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Oh by the way I think I will put the average number of huricanes and major hurricanes down here as well since 1995, the start of the active period:

1995-2007 hurricane average---8

1995-2007 majo hurricane average- 3.7

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only 4 people taking part so far :huh: hopefully we will get more people taking part soon.

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AO

1992

1991

1990

1984

No duo-monthly anologues

QBO

1980

MEI

2000

1999

1989

1971

1957

1955

1951

1950

ot making a prediction until March, however these are the anologues i am working with at the moment.

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only 4 people taking part so far :( hopefully we will get more people taking part soon.

Hi Cookie,

I am not too concerned about the lack of numbers. As with most predictions it is usual to leave the entry as late as possible to take advantage of any clues in the offering.

I only set this up so early to ensure maximum exposure... not having anyone say they did not see the competition in time :o !

While Im here - can we have some general notes of interest even if you do not plan on entering your predictions until next month!

Cheers

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I expect this to become a very active season in the North Atlantic. The main reason for this is my prediction of above normal temperatures across central and eastern N America through the summer months, and a return to deep-layer easterly flow in the subtropical belt. Even though SST anomalies do not currently look massively favourable, these will respond and become conducive for development. I am also factoring in the recent trend to naming marginal events so although I think this will be the equivalent of a past 17-storm season, there will be 19 or 20 named storms, 11 or 12 becoming hurricanes, and 5 or 6 reaching cat-3 or higher. And I think it will be a season for major landfalling hurricanes in the Gulf and southeast U.S. unlike the past two seasons. Didn't realize there was a compy so I will wander over there now and say totally different things just to confuse people (not really). :D

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Certainly sounds like your forecasting a very active season which will keep the hurricane lot happy on this board!

As for the SST's, you'll generally find in strong la nna winters they aren't that impressive but they do tend to warm a little as the la nina usually decays into the summer, it may not happen quite as much as normally because it seems to be peaking quite late but I think it should occur.

I don't think there will be a huge number of tropical cyclones but it does seem easier to get subtropical/weak tropical depressions nowdays then before, however seasons that follow strong la nina in the active cycle of the atlantic tends to have a high ratio of hurricanes to tropical storms higher then you would normally expect, the main ones probaby 1950 and 1999 though 2000 may count as well, all three had above normal ACE (accumulated cyclone energy-the best measure of how active a season actually is...2005 is at the top surprise!) so whilst I'm not certain about numbersI fully expect that the 08 season will have above normal ACE.

I also strongly suspect that the 2nd half of the season (say after the 15t of August) will be wheen the season will really rev up into top gear, la nina seasons tend to be late starters but very active when they get going.

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Hi Cookie,

I am not too concerned about the lack of numbers. As with most predictions it is usual to leave the entry as late as possible to take advantage of any clues in the offering.

I only set this up so early to ensure maximum exposure... not having anyone say they did not see the competition in time :D !

While Im here - can we have some general notes of interest even if you do not plan on entering your predictions until next month!

Cheers

yeah I hope so,

I expect this to become a very active season in the North Atlantic. The main reason for this is my prediction of above normal temperatures across central and eastern N America through the summer months, and a return to deep-layer easterly flow in the subtropical belt. Even though SST anomalies do not currently look massively favourable, these will respond and become conducive for development. I am also factoring in the recent trend to naming marginal events so although I think this will be the equivalent of a past 17-storm season, there will be 19 or 20 named storms, 11 or 12 becoming hurricanes, and 5 or 6 reaching cat-3 or higher. And I think it will be a season for major landfalling hurricanes in the Gulf and southeast U.S. unlike the past two seasons. Didn't realize there was a compy so I will wander over there now and say totally different things just to confuse people (not really). :D

brilliant post as ever mate and the last line a classic!

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Anologues aside, i do actually think that the 2008 hurricane season does look to have good potential at this point with the potential for both a La Nina event,and a westerly QBO.

What a La Nina does in reference to the hurricane season is encourage a stronger Bermuda-Azores High which typically leads to easterly trades, and when associated with an easterly QBO such as last year, we see fast moving but high developing storms however the difference this year is that we are looking at a westerly QBO developing with is associated with lower pressure (upper lows = shear), but also a La Nina, which will likely mean a very slack pattern in the Tropical Atlantic, but with lower than average pressure and the Azores-Bermuda High dispaced northward.

In conclusion, what we appear to have if such conditions occur is weak stearing currents and an active ITCZ (plenty of waves coming out of Africa), it does'nt take a genious to relaise that while recurviture is favoured with the Bermuda-Azores High displaced north, if any waves are slow moving around the Carribean, we do have the potnential for BOMBING.

Kold, would apprecate your thoughts on this...

PS: I should add that for the summer prospects in the UK, this is not good, La Nina encourages higher pressure in the Atlatic, which coupled with a signal for high pressure at mid-lattiudes, would seem to indicate higher pressure to the west, which of course could mean a southerly tracking Jet Stream.

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Its really hard to tell how the Atlantic will set out this far in advance to be honest I don't want to call that side of things for another few months yet.

In theory a lot will depend on exactly where the upper high will plac eitself. In 2006 the core was very far north BUT it was angled in such a way that meant it wasn't really till mid August that systems coming off Africa had a real shot at developing because the Azores-Scandinavian high combo meant plety of dry air was pushed into th atlantic in the first half of the season. It wasn't till mid-late August that this decayed completly and that when the hurricanes got going in the E/C Atlantic...however by that time el nino was developing.

However in 2007 we had almost the total opposite, with a strng -ve NAO throughout mst of the prme season that meant a pretty much constant upper low in the central Atlantic. So whlst dry wasn't nearl much of a problem instead any system that got above 15N got sheared apart, even hurricane Karen only got a small window to strenthen. It was only the systems that could stay to the south of these upper lows that really had a shot at developing, which both Dean and Felix showed quite evidently.

I know its not really answering your thoughts SB but I think its a little early to knowhow the NAO is going to set-up though if you've got any ideas I'll be curious.

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Its really hard to tell how the Atlantic will set out this far in advance to be honest I don't want to call that side of things for another few months yet.

In theory a lot will depend on exactly where the upper high will plac eitself. In 2006 the core was very far north BUT it was angled in such a way that meant it wasn't really till mid August that systems coming off Africa had a real shot at developing because the Azores-Scandinavian high combo meant plety of dry air was pushed into th atlantic in the first half of the season. It wasn't till mid-late August that this decayed completly and that when the hurricanes got going in the E/C Atlantic...however by that time el nino was developing.

However in 2007 we had almost the total opposite, with a strng -ve NAO throughout mst of the prme season that meant a pretty much constant upper low in the central Atlantic. So whlst dry wasn't nearl much of a problem instead any system that got above 15N got sheared apart, even hurricane Karen only got a small window to strenthen. It was only the systems that could stay to the south of these upper lows that really had a shot at developing, which both Dean and Felix showed quite evidently.

I know its not really answering your thoughts SB but I think its a little early to knowhow the NAO is going to set-up though if you've got any ideas I'll be curious.

Well at this early stage i would have to say a negative NAO is in the offing, a La Nina (anologues indicate weak territory), coupled with a signal for a Sub-Tropical High dispalaced northward should encourage height rises around Iceland.

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I am also factoring in the recent trend to naming marginal events

This is a very interesting point. Is it just a personal observation or has it been confirmed? What is everyone elses opinions on this.

I have just checked the records from last season and note that the only borderling case is Hurricane Karen which reached max wind speed of 75mph - which means that it qualifies for Cat1 status - just (if it were 74mph then it would be a TS).

There were no examples of TS with max speeds of more than 60mph so were not even close to being upgraded.

If it is a black and white case of max wind speed defining if it is a Cat1 or not then surley there is no lea-way in 'naming marginal events' - it either is 75mph or not? Or perhaps different readings etc

Excuse me wont you - I am just typing as I am thinking!

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Excuse me wont you - I am just typing as I am thinking!

should I be worried?

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When it comes to systems being upgraded I often see some system close to land being upgraded that wouldn't be upgraded in the open atlantic. Theres probably two reasons for this, 1: systems closer to land pobably have the NC erring on the side of caution and 2: Being closer to land there are probably higher amounts of recon going into the system and therefore a greater chance of finding the winds high enough to upgrade the system to TD/TS/Hurricane.

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Just to explain what I meant back there, it's two different things at play, first of all, we are now aware of more marginal systems that might have gone undetected earlier in the period of record, certainly before the 1960s, so some of the high-frequency years like 1887, 1933 or 1936 might have come in even higher under modern conditions of observation. The other trend is more of a subjective thing where systems that might have remained TD or un-named nowadays get a name even if they put in a two-day stint as marginal TS in some mid-ocean location. That may reflect a change in awareness too. There were a few in the big season of 2005 that seemed to fall into that category.

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Yes very true Roge, indeed some say that the 1933 hurricane season was probably very similar in numbers to the 2005 season simply because quite a few of the NE Atlantic systems such as Epislon, etc probably wouldn't have counted in the past or even known about and indeed the records show no tropical system was discovered in the NE Atlantic, I think it could well be the case that the 1933 was very close to the 2005 season in terms of number of systems based on that idea.

Just out of interest Roger could the system you use to forecast storms in the atlantic also be applied to tropical systems?

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Any more takers for this? You don't have to explain your predictions it can be just a guess if you like! Deadline end of March. :)

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Any more takers for this? You don't have to explain your predictions it can be just a guess if you like! Deadline end of March. :)

A lower then average season like last year

Reason ?, to poor cold water on global warming model predictions

I believe the trend with global warming is more activity year on year ? (I appreciate there can be the odd blip)

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