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noggin

Recent and ongoing cold and snow records

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I think this winter globally is acting the way you would expect if natural variation were a slightly bigger factor than AGW. My estimate before now had been that two-thirds to three-quarters of the warming observed recently was natural and the rest anthropogenic (yes I do have that word on a macro key).

Now I think maybe 60-40 natural to AGW, and if natural tries to go colder, the results could be quite unstable. It's the kind of thought exercise that could short-circuit a tiny mind such as my own. But on first try, I came up with this idea -- increases in snowfall somewhat ameliorated by continuing phase change episodes in marginal areas and residual SST anomalies although this applying mainly to the Atlantic as the Pacific has the cooling of La Nina going on. Snowfall anomalies also undergoing rapid redistribution around urban areas. This latter idea was borne out by my own travels around the Vancouver region today. It has been quite sunny and spring-like for three days and there is little sign of snow in the urban areas. If you get back into the forested areas on the north shore, however, even near sea level there is a patchy 10-15 cm snow cover left over from much deeper snow that fell two weeks ago. And it feels much colder near that snow than in some comparable setting in the city. So this winter seems to be a kind of blend between historic severe winters in western Canada and the recent tame global warming type winters.

This may continue to be the situation for a few years if we are entering a cooler phase, but areas like the Great Lakes where winter can continue to become robust, do have a chance to swing over to very cold and snowy regimes that can persist despite the 0.5-1.0 C temp increase being introduced by human activity. As I said elsewhere, turning -41 to -40 is hardly what the public would find catastrophic.

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Hi R.J.S.!

I'd agree with your view of possibly extreme responses if the planets 'natural' systems line up for a period of 'cool down'. If humanity continues B.A.U. with it's polluting ways then the unrelenting warm up must surely continue further negating the future effects of any such conjunctions. We should all take note of the impacts (if any) of the current 'alignments' compared to there historical impacts to gauge how far we have compromised our planets ability to 'self right'.

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...As I said elsewhere, turning -41 to -40 is hardly what the public would find catastrophic.

Indeed not, and this point has been raised in the past re why the US drags its heels of GW - plus the economic interest that always rears its head most obviously in the US.

Here in the UK the effect of 2C in the marginal zone between snow / rain and frost / not is MUCH more immediately apparent, not least in the wailing and gnashing threads lamenting the lack of wintry weather.

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Worst snow since 1968

http://icelandreview.com/icelandreview/dai...w_0_a_id=301866

Also, late Winter storms batter Canada and America. Links to follow at usual snail's pace. Plus a cold (relatively speaking!) Summer in Sydney. Australia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news/04032008news.shtml

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news/06032008news.shtml

Still bad in China, too.....

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/...ent_7698015.htm

I am endeavouring to show how this Winter is continuing to be so exceptional.

(and Summer in Sydney, if I can find the bloomin' article again!)

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We're getting desperate now. That article does not (correctly) make a case for Sydney having it's coolest summer in fifty years. The mean max was the coolest in eleven, but the absolute maximum was the lowest for fifty years. It's one definition of unusual cool, but certainly not the accepted yardstick. It may be that the summer average is cool, but since we're not yet through the meteorological summer it would be impossible to call that one yet.

Post records, by all means, but lets try to make sure that we're not guilty of looking for things that we hope for but which aren't there, rather than looking at the data and drawing hypotheses.

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It may be that the summer average is cool, but since we're not yet through the meteorological summer it would be impossible to call that one yet.

SF the article was dated 4/3 and is thus after the end of the SH meteorlogical summer on 29/2.

kind regards

ACB

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Post records, by all means, but lets try to make sure that we're not guilty of looking for things that we hope for but which aren't there, rather than looking at the data and drawing hypotheses.

Couldnt agree more SF, however, I have a gripe (not with yourself) from the last couple of summers. The number of times I saw "Another record has gone. Today, the xth of June will reach 38.7oC showing just how bad global warming is" type of posts.

Daily records for me are too tedious, at either end of the scale.

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when does that figure come out ??

I don't know, I'm afraid, but when I find something which I can understand, I will post a link!

In the meantime, here is an interesting chart thingy showing that the CET for Feb 2008 ranks 280 out of 350 Februarys. 1 being the coldest and 350 being the warmest, IYKWIM.

My take on this is that even though we did not get the very snowy Winter that much of the NH did, neither were we basking in record-breaking heat. At least that's how it looks to me!

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

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Global temperature has levelled off since 1998 ; global sea ice area back to 1979 levels; increasing reports of cold records going; increasing snow cover in the N Hemisphere. No brainer really.

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Global temperature has levelled off since 1998 ; global sea ice area back to 1979 levels; increasing reports of cold records going; increasing snow cover in the N Hemisphere. No brainer really.

Right! A couple of months with global temps close to average and a handful of cold weather records count much more than years and years of above average temperatures and shedfulls of record warmth records. Obvious really, no brainer init...

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Right! A couple of months with global temps close to average and a handful of cold weather records count much more than years and years of above average temperatures and shedfulls of record warmth records. Obvious really, no brainer init...

It's not what warmists have anticipated though Dev is it. Come on we should still be warming and lets not go down the non linear track...that is getting used more and more to deflect the fact that ice, snow and cold events are growing despite CO2 being ever higher.

BFTP

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This winter is turning into more than just a minor "return to average" across large parts of eastern Canada. Seasonal snowfall records are now being threatened in parts of Ontario and Quebec after two more heavy snowfalls in the past week. Roofs are collapsing in Ottawa and Montreal as a result of heavy snow accumulations containing added weight from recent freezing rain mixed in. Long-term (near 100 years) snowfall seasonal records range from already broken at some locations, to 30-50 cms away from being broken in others, and this would be easily achievable in the current pattern.

None of this is lake effect, by the way, the records are being broken outside the snow belt areas from synoptic scale type events.

There is widespread banter about lynching Wiarton Willie, the Canadian groundhog supremo whose cloudy afternoon stroll on February 2nd was reported as an indication that the winter would end early.

The usual blather about the groundhog's prognostication has been rather sadly undermined by the apparent refusal of this winter to end. No doubt the media will troop back to Wiarton next February 2nd for more of the same.

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This winter is turning into more than just a minor "return to average" across large parts of eastern Canada. Seasonal snowfall records are now being threatened in parts of Ontario and Quebec after two more heavy snowfalls in the past week. Roofs are collapsing in Ottawa and Montreal as a result of heavy snow accumulations containing added weight from recent freezing rain mixed in. Long-term (near 100 years) snowfall seasonal records range from already broken at some locations, to 30-50 cms away from being broken in others, and this would be easily achievable in the current pattern.

None of this is lake effect, by the way, the records are being broken outside the snow belt areas from synoptic scale type events.

There is widespread banter about lynching Wiarton Willie, the Canadian groundhog supremo whose cloudy afternoon stroll on February 2nd was reported as an indication that the winter would end early.

The usual blather about the groundhog's prognostication has been rather sadly undermined by the apparent refusal of this winter to end. No doubt the media will troop back to Wiarton next February 2nd for more of the same.

And, meanwhile, Scandinavia is off message...

It's not what warmists have anticipated though Dev is it. Come on we should still be warming and lets not go down the non linear track...that is getting used more and more to deflect the fact that ice, snow and cold events are growing despite CO2 being ever higher.

BFTP

Well, I don't expect La Nina to have no effect on global temps - why do you? El Nino clearly warms things a bit, why not the reverse? The anthro component of climate change is fairly large but it can't dominate fairly large short term cooling effects like LN. But, by all mean pull me up if warming doesn't resume once LN fizzles. That will be a test, but a test for a few years in the future.

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I see these events more as evidence of a shift in the overall structure of the northern hemisphere climate, feeling that the la Nina phenomenon is only a part of the picture. I've stated elsewhere that continued warming over Europe and a more volatile climate over N America with more frequent significant cold outbreaks from eastern Asia to Greenland are all consistent with a shift which favours ridging over Europe. I don't think this has anything to do with human activity, this is just by coincidence the pattern that we are polluting from below, and that has its own effects but it doesn't drive the circulation, the circulation is just forced to deal with our contributions. Clearly at this stage, these contributions have not banished real winter to the sidelines in North America as many had predicted in the early stages of the global warming (now climate change) controversy.

I think the critics have a reasonable point here, the climate change theory was quick to adopt recent milder winters as evidence, so why should critics not adopt colder winters as counter-evidence? The problem for the climate change side in all of this is that science works generally on the basis of disproof of theory rather than proof of theory, since disproof is logically easier to establish. I would want to be fair-minded, if there is not another winter like this one for 20 or 30 years then fair game to the climate change theory, if we have one every three to seven years, not so good -- it's all about the frequency of weather events, not whether they happen at all. I just think that we are in a situation here with an absence of final proof and considerable room for debate.

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And, meanwhile, Scandinavia is off message...

Well, I don't expect La Nina to have no effect on global temps - why do you? El Nino clearly warms things a bit, why not the reverse? The anthro component of climate change is fairly large but it can't dominate fairly large short term cooling effects like LN. But, by all mean pull me up if warming doesn't resume once LN fizzles. That will be a test, but a test for a few years in the future.

Ah Dev

I am a big believer in ENSO and its climatological effects, and also that there is an approx 36 year solar controlled cycle whereby either ENSO state dominates. We have entered the La Nina phase as of Feb 2007...funnily enough when the El Nino abruptly ended! I accept GW has occurred but not as a result of AGW [although even in my firm stance I accept there is alittle man mix in there..just a little :) ]. I anticipate a cooling phase over the next 20 -30 years....but not necessarily the UK :)

BFTP

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And, meanwhile, Scandinavia is off message...

Just a quickie to point out that I have already mentioned the warm Scandinavian Winter, I can't remember which thread though. :unknw:

Just wanted to show that I am not biased towards cold.......... ;)

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Just wanted to show that I am not biased towards cold..........

I,like many others lament the temporary disappearance of winter in the UK as we used to know it. And as the globowarmers are so fond of reminding us,the recent,global shattering of many cold records does not 'prove' the onset of sustained cooling any more than our recent mild winters 'prove' warming. For the record,this 'denier' would,if anything,prefer a warmer world as opposed to a colder one as would anyone in their right mind. However,and as I have consistently maintained on here since my debut on 29th July last year,AGW is utter fantasy and in a very few years the truth of that will be borne out for all to see. The End.

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I,like many others lament the temporary disappearance of winter in the UK as we used to know it. And as the globowarmers are so fond of reminding us,the recent,global shattering of many cold records does not 'prove' the onset of sustained cooling any more than our recent mild winters 'prove' warming. For the record,this 'denier' would,if anything,prefer a warmer world as opposed to a colder one as would anyone in their right mind. However,and as I have consistently maintained on here since my debut on 29th July last year,AGW is utter fantasy and in a very few years the truth of that will be borne out for all to see. The End.

Do we now say climate change rather then Global warming ?? :lol:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtm...26/eaice126.xml

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtm...aclimate104.xml

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Because the trendies cant prove global warming is taken place,they need to find a new trendy word to relaunch there scaremongering tacticts.(the latest ippc report on global warming sponsored by the goverment written by ten unqualified scientists)

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