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noggin

Recent and ongoing cold and snow records

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How do you explain last year being the 2nd warmest ever then, according to NASA and NOAA? And 2005 being the warmest ever, according to NASA? Unless you saying that we can make long term predictions of our climate from a few regionally notable cold/snow events.

Hmm,at least one other 'authority' (Climate Research Unit)disagrees. Which goes to show what us mere mortals are up against! Best bet probably to just have a good look around and come to one's own conclusions?

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I suppose the question is why, in a warming world, would anyone suppose that we might NOT still see record minima?

The world is warming, these events should be occurring less frequently.. I don't get this. Why in a warmer world would cold be breaking records as frequently as warm is?

Genuine question BTW..

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The world is warming, these events should be occurring less frequently.. I don't get this. Why in a warmer world would cold be breaking records as frequently as warm is?

Genuine question BTW..

Yes, averaged over a long period you are right pp. However, too linear an argument. If what you're saying is that there should be no period (let's say upto a couple of years or so) in which the setting of cold records exceeds the setting of warm periods then I suspect we're making a fundamental mistake. By extension of the same logic you arrive at an argument that says each year must, relatively, be warmer than the one before; and so each month, and each week, and then each day.

I keep pointing out that even when the climate was broadly flat the inter-annual variation was often 0.5C and more. Let's say setting records requires temperatures to be around 5C below running mean (this figure will vary according to the length of period covered, being highest for shorter periods) for a given month's record to fall. If the climate has warmed by, say, 1C, then all we're looking for at present is a run of 6C below par to touch previous extremes. This is all quite plausible. Climate, though warming, has not yet warmed so markedly that cold records cannot be set for short intervals.

However, note well my last point. The warm records that have been set in recent times relate to years, seasons and months. The cold records being set are occurring, thus far at least, for weeks and days at best.

At present what we have is just the normal variation in background noise. I'm not aware of many temperature records being broken, but I'm not following every link in this thread. Snow alone, however impressive, is indicative of nothing other than a mixture of water vapour and air at or around freezing, or colder. If the pattern of cold records continues, and even then, only if it exceeds in volume and extent the setting of warm records, then, and only then, might there be a case to answer.

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However, note well my last point. The warm records that have been set in recent times relate to years, seasons and months. The cold records being set are occurring, thus far at least, for weeks and days at best.

No.. I disagree.. The States have had records fall pretty much year on year/seasons/months.. levels have hesitated but yet they continue.. Asia/China are also seeing the same sort of occurrences..

BTW.. I don't see why other personal references are needed SF.. I asked my own question..

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The world is warming, these events should be occurring less frequently.. I don't get this. Why in a warmer world would cold be breaking records as frequently as warm is?

Genuine question BTW..

Are they?

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From 2005.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8...;show_article=1

And this from 2001

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s557.htm

Perhaps this years record cold isn't a blip? What I'm finding interesting here is we are seeing record Summer max temps and record Winter min temps occurring over recent years in various parts of the world. If the world was warming to an extent outside of natural cycles, then why do we still observe record minima? Global averages certainly show a gradual rise but why the two record extremes?

Its a 'blip' if it cant be explained by predictive models :angry:

Found this article interesting

http://www.john-daly.com/stations/badwater.htm

Time will tell re what is happen with the weather

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news/18022008news.shtml

Greece. Admittedly it's not the most detailed of reports, but lowest temperatures for 100 years were forecast and I understand that the forecast turned out right.

I am trying to link to the Hellenic MetO but 'tis painfully slow. I'll give it a few more goes.

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No.. I disagree.. The States have had records fall pretty much year on year/seasons/months.. levels have hesitated but yet they continue.. Asia/China are also seeing the same sort of occurrences..

BTW.. I don't see why other personal references are needed SF.. I asked my own question..

I'm not convinced that the States are seeing records fall consistently pp. Remember, the US is tantamount to a continent in its own right - it would be astonishing indeed if there weren't records set somewhere. The challenge remains, are the same places consistently cooling, and is the overall effect net negative. I very much doubt it, and certianly over recent years when the overall trend has been up. It's a mathematical impossibility for the net effects of warm v cool to be at odds with the overall trend.

I think you're also being fast and loose with China. I may be wrong but my recall is that last winter in China was warm.

I guess as a mod you can be both judge and jury on comments the rest of us make. In other walks of life you'd be excluded from conversation for precisely that reason - rather like neutral umpires. Not that you do act with bias, but keeping mods out of the discussion, and focussed instead on moderating, helps reduce the perception that they might be biased on their own account.

No.. I disagree.. The States have had records fall pretty much year on year/seasons/months.. levels have hesitated but yet they continue.. Asia/China are also seeing the same sort of occurrences..

BTW.. I don't see why other personal references are needed SF.. I asked my own question..

By the way, you still haven't explained why in a warming world the setting of cold records should not be expected. Nor has anyone else holding the same view. There's obviously some compelling logic that I'm missing, though I'm ever willing to be enlightened.

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Guest mycroft

Quote fromS.F.

By the way, you still haven't explained why in a warming world the setting of cold records should not be expected. Nor has anyone else holding the same view. There's obviously some compelling logic that I'm missing, though I'm ever willing to be enlightened.

How about the fact that every jack and his uncle involved with AGW/GW from day one has told us mere mortals that is what would happen :lol: .Cold and snowfall would diminish,seems funny how all of a sudden that the experts have started to come out with "that some places will warm while others will get colder".The programme on BBC4 last night being a prime

example of the new tilt, covering their I have a problem some might say :good:

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Quote fromS.F.

By the way, you still haven't explained why in a warming world the setting of cold records should not be expected. Nor has anyone else holding the same view. There's obviously some compelling logic that I'm missing, though I'm ever willing to be enlightened.

How about the fact that every jack and his uncle involved with AGW/GW from day one has told us mere mortals that is what would happen :lol: .Cold and snowfall would diminish,seems funny how all of a sudden that the experts have started to come out with "that some places will warm while others will get colder".The programme on BBC4 last night being a prime

example of the new tilt, covering their I have a problem some might say :good:

The experts have always said that areas of the world will see different patterns (some being a cooling) in an AGW world. Its the press that continue to state that in a warmed world everywhere will be warmer.

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Haven't time to go through this thread and remove the o/t stuff now, but this is the analysis area, the thread was intended to be for people to post their evidence of cold records being broken and any analysis of that evidence into. It is not for the debate of whether that evidence is of use, so from here on in please stay on topic.

If people want to continue with the debate of the use of cold records, perhaps a thread can be started in the main enviro area to debate this, as well as this, if people want to show evidence of warming via records etc, please feel free to start another analysis thread..

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Guest mycroft
Haven't time to go through this thread and remove the o/t stuff now, but this is the analysis area, the thread was intended to be for people to post their evidence of cold records being broken and any analysis of that evidence into. It is not for the debate of whether that evidence is of use, so from here on in please stay on topic.

If people want to continue with the debate of the use of cold records, perhaps a thread can be started in the main enviro area to debate this, as well as this, if people want to show evidence of warming via records etc, please feel free to start another analysis thread..

Sorry to go O/T. but surely this thread is not only going to consist of links to external web pages showing how one particular region has had a cold winter

What is the point of posting links and not debating, whats the point of posting evidence in the first place, useful or not

the topic of the thread is "Recent and ongoing cold and snow records"

Forum =a public facility to meet for open discussion. This is a forum is it not, :huh:

I find this sort of censor very stifling of this thread/forum, why stop discussion :D

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Sorry to go O/T. but surely this thread is not only going to consist of links to external web pages showing how one particular region has had a cold winter

What is the point of posting links and not debating, whats the point of posting evidence in the first place, useful or not

the topic of the thread is "Recent and ongoing cold and snow records"

Forum =a public facility to meet for open discussion. This is a forum is it not, :huh:

I find this sort of censor very stifling of this thread/forum, why stop discussion :D

Well, to be fair to Paul, first up the site is his - if it's anybody's, so we are playing on his lawn, albeit that the lawn rather requires us all to metaphorically left trouser leg on it if it's going to continue growing (forgive the vernacular).

Second up, whilst I agree that issues should be up for debate, this thread is supposed to be about cold records. I agree that simply posting numbers hardly adds up to critical analysis, and I have been trying to understand why some posters assume that we can't get cold records in a warming world, however if people want a thread for the record I certainly see no harm. There are plenty of people out there following lower league football teams that are never going to win anything; some weeks they win, some they lose, but at the end of the day people like going along to watch. Maybe that's what threads like this are for.

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Guest mycroft
Well, to be fair to Paul, first up the site is his - if it's anybody's, so we are playing on his lawn, albeit that the lawn rather requires us all to metaphorically left trouser leg on it if it's going to continue growing (forgive the vernacular).

Second up, whilst I agree that issues should be up for debate, this thread is supposed to be about cold records. I agree that simply posting numbers hardly adds up to critical analysis, and I have been trying to understand why some posters assume that we can't get cold records in a warming world, however if people want a thread for the record I certainly see no harm. There are plenty of people out there following lower league football teams that are never going to win anything; some weeks they win, some they lose, but at the end of the day people like going along to watch. Maybe that's what threads like this are for.

All very true old chap 2-0 to you i think :D

But i would have to say it negates the concept and idea of the forum ie; Netweather itself would'nt you agree

After all no discussion,= no members,= no forum,= no Netweather. :huh:

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All that is being asked is that the discussion takes place in the appropriate forum, and I notice that a thread for that purpose has been started already, no censorship, no stifling of debate, just a simple request to use the right channels to continue this and any other topic you wish to cover!

You'll find the thread which continues on from where this was headed here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=45807

Just to clarify once more - this thread is purely for the posting of records and the analysis of what that may be showing, discussion on the reliability of such evidence is available elsewhere.

Paul

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Guest mycroft

If those figures are correct 2.4'C drop in 12 months ..... the mind boggles where has all that heat gone :)

do you think the Beeb will fly its news presenters around the world to look for it.LOL

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If those figures are correct 2.4'C drop in 12 months ..... the mind boggles where has all that heat gone :)

do you think the Beeb will fly its news presenters around the world to look for it.LOL

isnt that just comparing jan2007 and jan2008 as individual months and not over 12months?

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Guest mycroft

yes my mistake.Though the site says the average global temp seems to have cooled by 0.6'C in 12 months

And this:

This drop in temperature is certainly very unusual. The fall of 0.595 degrees since Jan 2007 is the largest January-to-January drop in HAD CRU3 since 1875, and the biggest drop for any 12-month interval since -0.681 degrees in February 1974.

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yes my mistake.Though the site says the average global temp seems to have cooled by 0.6'C in 12 months

And this:

This drop in temperature is certainly very unusual. The fall of 0.595 degrees since Jan 2007 is the largest January-to-January drop in HAD CRU3 since 1875, and the biggest drop for any 12-month interval since -0.681 degrees in February 1974.

I'll put a nice little wager on that this year depsite that rapid warming ever rising AGW CO2 is increasing due to man, this year will not be the warmest on record.....in fact not even second...

BFTP

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And this:

This drop in temperature is certainly very unusual. The fall of 0.595 degrees since Jan 2007 is the largest January-to-January drop in HAD CRU3 since 1875, and the biggest drop for any 12-month interval since -0.681 degrees in February 1974.

1974.....wasn't that when the predictions of the new ice-age became headline news? Some of us will remember particularly the Horizon programme.......

This year will be interesting, I'm sure!

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Guest mycroft

Seems that the Antarctic is not immune from cold records.this is from the diaries of one of the scientists stationed at Halley base

By the way, this year it was the coldest April since the beginning of meteorological records (so for more than 50 years) at Halley

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