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noggin

Recent and ongoing cold and snow records

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Global shift....patent that Roger! :good: This has been a pretty impressive NH winter for most but not us in the UK...yep AGW is guilty as charged! :nonono: What has impressed me is the 'widespread' arctic outpouring in a probably 65-70% positive AO winter which normally would 'bottle up' the cold within the arctic. The record minima reports are of importance because of the sheer number, the wide area and off the back of an 'iceless' [you know what I mean] arctic. No matter about any claims of cherry picking this should not be the case if AGW was rampant and likely to be irreversible as what we saw in the SH during their winter was also widespread record, prolonged cold. For me I suppose mother nature is saying "I can override the effects of 0.01% increase of GHG of the atmosphere whenever I feel like it" :) As re a trend or one off.....time will tell but we enter the tenth year now since the 'hot one' and we are stable...more time please.

BFTP

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Guest mycroft

Good programme on the BBC this morning.From our own Correspondent in Tajikistan, coldest winter in 50 years

undefined

yet another part of the world enduring a very cold winter,mentions Afghanistan hsaving a very cold winter too

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It seems that in Europe, a regional pattern change has been accepted as a global change that is not really occurring and in fact the real story here may be that the world's climate patterns are shifting around, not all towards the warmer end of the spectrum.

You get my vote, Roger, for the climate "shift" theory. I have been quietly thinking along those lines for sometime, that the climate may well be "moving" around the Earth, like a sphere within a sphere, IYKWIM.

As the weeks/months go by, an eye shall be kept on the southern hemisphere's winter.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-02/...ent_7598488.htm

Longest cold spell in Hong Kong since 1968.

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single figures in Hong Kong for that length of time is almost equivalent to another 62-63 winter here.

as the article says only once before in well over 100 years.

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You get my vote, Roger, for the climate "shift" theory. I have been quietly thinking along those lines for sometime, that the climate may well be "moving" around the Earth, like a sphere within a sphere, IYKWIM.

Me too. Anyone else noticed how the UK 'even larger teapot' is seen by many (on here and elsewhere ) as being symptomatic of 'global warming'? But even though our neck of the woods,including North West Europe is but a very small area,the recent extreme,sustained and in many cases record breaking cold episodes from around the world are being dismissed as nothing of note and can't be seen as the beginning of the derailment of GW,man-made in part or otherwise? And if we'd had a winter of 1947 or '63 proportions that too would no doubt have signified nothing either, in light of the planet having allegedly warmed by a gargantuan 0.5C over a hundred or so years. Honestly,you couldn't make it up. Whichever way you look at it,the falling of records sometimes of over a hundred years standing should not be happening in a warming world,whichever way you want to distribute thermal energy. Hmm,1934 being the warmest year in US recorded history but no GW then. Funny how there is now in these times of cold records falling like ninepins.

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I hope you won't mind if people post links to warm records come the summer, claiming they are proof of warming.

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Hmm,1934 being the warmest year in US recorded history but no GW then. Funny how there is now in these times of cold records falling like ninepins.

Ahh,not quite: 1934 was joint record warmest along with 1998. I have had to correct Atlantic Flamethrower previously regarding this particular piece of denialist dishonesty.

regards

ACB

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Me too. Anyone else noticed how the UK 'modern winter' is seen by many (on here and elsewhere ) as being symptomatic of 'global warming'? But even though our neck of the woods,including North West Europe is but a very small area,the recent extreme,sustained and in many cases record breaking cold episodes from around the world are being dismissed as nothing of note and can't be seen as the beginning of the derailment of GW,man-made in part or otherwise? And if we'd had a winter of 1947 or '63 proportions that too would no doubt have signified nothing either, in light of the planet having allegedly warmed by a gargantuan 0.5C over a hundred or so years. Honestly,you couldn't make it up. Whichever way you look at it,the falling of records sometimes of over a hundred years standing should not be happening in a warming world,whichever way you want to distribute thermal energy. Hmm,1934 being the warmest year in US recorded history but no GW then. Funny how there is now in these times of cold records falling like ninepins.

Which cold records are you referring to as falling like ninepins lg?

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...Whichever way you look at it,the falling of records sometimes of over a hundred years standing should not be happening in a warming world,whichever way you want to distribute thermal energy. Hmm,1934 being the warmest year in US recorded history but no GW then. Funny how there is now in these times of cold records falling like ninepins.

Why not? You're going to have to explain the maths to me on that LG, particulary as - and you state this very clearly yourself - the level of GW at present is fairly slight comapred with the natural variability in climate. Warming to date makes cold records merely less likely, not impossible.

Some of the observations made on here betray a level of mathematical and statistical awareness that would, to be frank, embarass even a decent secondary level student.

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That's a rather strange statistic about 1934 being a former peak of warming, no matter whether it tied with 1998 or whatever, because that year actually had a very cold winter in parts of eastern N America, February 1934 was the coldest on record at many locations and Lake Ontario froze more extensively than in any other known (modern) instance. I guess the warmth was built up more in central regions than in the east, because only May and July were really above normal at Toronto, many of the other months were near normal if not below as with February. Granted this was one of the more severe dust bowl summers but unlike 1936 the severe heat did not move as far north and northeast.

Does this winter really mean all that much in the grand scheme of things as we face the possibility of this accelerated warming? I think it suggests a slight reason for optimism that natural variability might struggle to overcome whatever impact we are having on global temperatures, which as I've said I believe to be a fraction of the total, still one-third of the total is something significant and we would be better off without that happening. I don't believe we can cut into that one-third by more than one-quarter (and I will get SF to confirm this with his heavy duty statistical mind, but one-quarter of one-third is one-twelfth of the total, so if the total were 1.2 C degrees of warming, we could perhaps shave 0.1 off that).

Anyway, I think the more interesting part of this topic is what happens when this winter transitions into spring in these various regions -- will these negative anomalies have any lingering effect or will we be seeing mostly warmer than normal spring and summer weather in these regions too? In any case, I tend to associate most of this recent cold weather with the widespread cold water regime in the North Pacific, which has been about 3 degrees colder than in recent winters from here to Japan, basically.

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Me too. Anyone else noticed how the UK 'even larger teapot' is seen by many (on here and elsewhere ) as being symptomatic of 'global warming'?

That is THE problem on this site. Many do think that warm UK means warm/AGW globe...and it is rather tiresome.

BFTP

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...

Anyway, I think the more interesting part of this topic is what happens when this winter transitions into spring in these various regions -- will these negative anomalies have any lingering effect or will we be seeing mostly warmer than normal spring and summer weather in these regions too? In any case, I tend to associate most of this recent cold weather with the widespread cold water regime in the North Pacific, which has been about 3 degrees colder than in recent winters from here to Japan, basically.

That is the most important part of your post Roger. As per all these discussions of momentary phenomena, their true significance is only ever revealed a good period of time downstream. A single data point is simply that. Without context it is hard to say whether it is an outlier or the start of trend. At present, on the basis of what has gone before (mildness overall), it's more likely to be an outlier, but we will need to wait and see.

Not quite sure what numerical point you want testing, not least because I suspect much of the reported cold is localised and short-term, not sustained: the genuinely cold years in the past had extensive cold, over long periods, and to significant absolute values. What we have this winter is localised cold, over short periods, and in some places to unusually low levels. It is a necessary condition for a lowering of the global annual mean, but it is not on its own sufficient. As you state higher up the 1934 value came in a year with some cold weather. Annual extremes, particularly globally, reflect the long term norm over a large area; they do not reflect the momentary conditions is a locale.

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you will need a run of below avearge global annual temps to be of any use..one season of relative cold in certain areas of the world mean nothing..especailly when they are offset by warmth eslewhere..i.e north west europe..oh and dont foget the warmest winter ever recored in the uk is 1833-34..when our winters were colder so cold can happen when warmer and vice versa ..so nothing unusual.

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you will need a run of below avearge global annual temps to be of any use..one season of relative cold in certain areas of the world mean nothing..especailly when they are offset by warmth eslewhere..i.e north west europe..oh and dont foget the warmest winter ever recored in the uk is 1833-34..when our winters were colder so cold can happen when warmer and vice versa ..so nothing unusual.

I think 1833-1834 came in at 6.5, 1868-1869 was warmer at 6.8 :blush:

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Which cold records are you referring to as falling like ninepins lg?

Tut. The very ones you commented on in response to the link I provided in post #6 of this thread is as good a place as any to start. Of course,the falling of numerous cold records are proof enough of warming,in much the same way as rising gun and knife crime prove a fall in violent crime,as I'm sure SF will go on to explain.

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That is THE problem on this site. Many do think that warm UK means warm/AGW globe...and it is rather tiresome.

But that is the exact same logic people here are using. A cold period in China is now somehow evidence that the Earth is cooling. At least with the UK people are talking about long term climate trends, which is the only way to determine climate long term. If the next 10 years are cooler than the last 10 years in China, then I will be very interested with regards to possible cooling. Don't you all agree that's the only way to determine long term climate?

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But that is the exact same logic people here are using. A cold period in China is now somehow evidence that the Earth is cooling.

Nobody said that, Magpie. This thread contains links to reports of extreme cold/snow over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. The point of it was to record stuff that might help us to see if there was a bucking of the old trend or maybe even a starting of a cooling trend.

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Nobody said that, Magpie. This thread contains links to reports of extreme cold/snow over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. The point of it was to record stuff that might help us to see if there was a bucking of the old trend or maybe even a starting of a cooling trend.

Noggin, will you please explain how looking for cold records and snow proves the case?

Tut. The very ones you commented on in response to the link I provided in post #6 of this thread is as good a place as any to start. Of course,the falling of numerous cold records are proof enough of warming,in much the same way as rising gun and knife crime prove a fall in violent crime,as I'm sure SF will go on to explain.

Perhaps you too can explain how falling cold records proves we are cooling LG.

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From 2005.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8...;show_article=1

And this from 2001

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s557.htm

Perhaps this years record cold isn't a blip? What I'm finding interesting here is we are seeing record Summer max temps and record Winter min temps occurring over recent years in various parts of the world. If the world was warming to an extent outside of natural cycles, then why do we still observe record minima? Global averages certainly show a gradual rise but why the two record extremes?

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Tut. The very ones you commented on in response to the link I provided in post #6 of this thread is as good a place as any to start.

:lol: It's hard to keep up sometimes lg :) (Well that's what OON told me at the motorway services once).

From 2005.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8...;show_article=1

Perhaps this years record cold isn't a blip? What I'm finding interesting here is we are seeing record Summer max temps and record Winter min temps occurring over recent years in various parts of the world. If the world was warming to an extent outside of natural cycles, then why do we still observe record minima? Global averages certainly show a gradual rise but why the two record extremes?

It's just a shame the records only go one way in NW Europe eh PP?! :angry: Typical.

My take on what scientists have said about the undeniably warming world in which we are living, is that extremes of all types of weather are to become more and more common - whether that be rain, drought, heat, cold, wind, or snow. But as you hint PP, the mean of this extra curricula activity is that temps are rising...

The comparison I would use is performance on the railways. Every year for 5 years now this has been getting better and better so much so we're now seeing punctuality in the 90+% area. But still there are massive and well-publicised cock-ups, like the Pendolino crash last Feb, last year's Portsmouth saga and more recently the Rugby/Liverpool St/Glasgow fiascos over xmas - possibly the worst engineering overruns for decades. I'm aslo sure many members here can tell us of their horrific one-off incidents where the service on the railways badly let them down... Yet the moving measure of performance continues to rise.

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perhaps, as has already been suggested somewhere on the forum, as we lie on the western edge(along with western Europe) of a maritime climate within the disturbed temperate regime then winters/summers in this area will not show quite the same large variance about the mean increase that more inland areas are showing. This to include areas like the Balkans/Greece where the overall effect of the land mass both east and west is far greater than anything in the western fringes of Europe?

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perhaps, as has already been suggested somewhere on the forum, as we lie on the western edge(along with western Europe) of a maritime climate within the disturbed temperate regime then winters/summers in this area will not show quite the same large variance about the mean increase that more inland areas are showing. This to include areas like the Balkans/Greece where the overall effect of the land mass both east and west is far greater than anything in the western fringes of Europe?

My take is that given slow changes in the macro-circulation, there will always be winners and losers when it comes to short-term flux, though the net overall is trended upwards. Going back twenty or so years winter HP would more often be to our N or NE. This puts a cold flow across N Europe, often with slack LP at the E end of the Med. Snow in the Balkans is anything but unusual (see the ski resorts oin ROmania and Bulgaira for example - these are newish areas NOT because it's only just started snowing, but because the economy and infrastructure have been developed only recently), and the area has often, in winter, been an occasional battleground.

In recent winters with the continental HP arguably rather more S and slightly W, the cold air is pushed further S into E Europe, whilst at the W and N margins the change is much more fundamental at the surface.

All these thungs can be explained, if only people bother to step back and see the patterns in the context of the macro-circulation.

From 2005.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8...;show_article=1

And this from 2001

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s557.htm

Perhaps this years record cold isn't a blip? What I'm finding interesting here is we are seeing record Summer max temps and record Winter min temps occurring over recent years in various parts of the world. If the world was warming to an extent outside of natural cycles, then why do we still observe record minima? Global averages certainly show a gradual rise but why the two record extremes?

I suppose the question is why, in a warming world, would anyone suppose that we might NOT still see record minima?

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Perhaps you too can explain how falling cold records proves we are cooling LG.

It doesn't necessarily prove anything SF,but certainly makes the case for ongoing,or even stabilised warming very hard to swallow.

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It doesn't necessarily prove anything SF,but certainly makes the case for ongoing,or even stabilised warming very hard to swallow.

How do you explain last year being the 2nd warmest ever then, according to NASA and NOAA? And 2005 being the warmest ever, according to NASA? Unless you saying that we can make long term predictions of our climate from a few regionally notable cold/snow events.

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