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noggin

Recent and ongoing cold and snow records

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So as not to clog up other threads, I thought of starting another, just to keep some records "on board".

As I am very slow, it will be one link at a time! There will probably be time for a quick nap between each one.

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Are there any actually stastical factual pieces of information for China's recent coldspell? All I've heard is hype so far: "Many parts of China have experienced the coldest weather in 50/100 years".

Also:

"The United States and Singapore pledged emergency aid of $150,000 and $500,000 respectively, Xinhua said, as several other countries sent condolence messages."

What? Is there even any point in that? In a country of around 1.3, with many of the most populated regions experiencing the cold snap, will a pathetic $150,000 (even less in stirling) even make a tiny bit of a difference? I guess it was just a gesture in a way though.

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...rds+%C2%BB#recs

Regarding recent records for cold. Here's a snapshot for the US for January 2007. 654 previous records felled. No further comment; I've withdrawn from exchanges as it only ends in a row,merely responding to Yeti's request for proof of cold records being set!

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Just tidied up this thread to remove the o/t posting. I do think it is probably best elsewhere though, as although I can see the link, I think weather reports are bested kept elsewhere and referenced within this thread if required. I'll move it to the enviro analysis area so the link can be kept :doh:

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...rds+%C2%BB#recs

Regarding recent records for cold. Here's a snapshot for the US for January 2007. 654 previous records felled. No further comment; I've withdrawn from exchanges as it only ends in a row,merely responding to Yeti's request for proof of cold records being set!

Hang on, when I look at December 2007, there are something like 70 maximum records set and not a single minimum. Cherry picking still proves nothing. Why are you looking at January 2007?

If you want a robust assessment go RIGHT through the last few years and produce a plot of maximum vs minimum records. If all you do is look for cold records - as Noggin seems to be doing - all that you prove is that cold records are still being set, and why wouldn't they be in cold continental interiors or E coast regimes in particular? It's not the basis for a robust hypothesis, and all it demoinstrates is that some on here really don't understand how to structure an objective test.

If I wanted to find out the range of creatures in rockpools on a beach, I would simply go looking in an area and plot everything I find. One or two on here might start with "let's look for crabs". An hour or so later they would come back and holler about how many crabs they had found, as if crabs were all that existed.

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Or like standing on a motorway bridge trying to prove that green cars are the most popular - by only counting green cars and ignoring all the other colours.

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Hang on, when I look at December 2007, there are something like 70 maximum records set and not a single minimum. Cherry picking still proves nothing. Why are you looking at January 2007?

Sorry Stratos,I wasn't cherry picking,honest! Jan 2007 was plucked entirely at random and only after posting did it occur to me that an equal number of warm records might have gone too. I accept your point,but 70 maximum records for Dec' 2007 hardly compares to 654 minimums,does it now? Especially in these times of 'global warming'.

Then there's this:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html

Again,this statistic in isolation may not mean much. However,whilst we argue about the truly miniscule (by comparison ) temp rises over long periods,a presumably natural-in-cause drop of 0.3C is ignored. Why? Wouldn't be if it was 0.3C the other way. The fact that it is the 49th coolest Jan' out of the last 114 is telling,and that 2007 is 'only' the tenth warmest year during these times of increasing CO2 outputs shows clearly that the climate does not play by the rules which 'we' have dreamed up. I haven't time to look again,but well over a 100 records have fallen to cold in Jan' 2008 over and above Jan' 2007. So many reports of cold (that's cold,not just snow ),from around the world and not just the US,make a pretty poor case for ongoing global warming,and an even worse one for AGW considering that the amounts of CO2 emitted just continue to rise. I never fail to be amazed how you turn the stats around to make them look like they say the polar opposite of what they well,say! Are you a politician, perchance?

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Guest mycroft

QUOTE S.F.

"Hang on, when I look at December 2007, there are something like 70 maximum records set and not a single minimum. Cherry picking still proves nothing. Why are you looking at January 2007?

If you want a robust assessment go RIGHT through the last few years and produce a plot of maximum vs minimum records. If all you do is look for cold records - as Noggin seems to be doing - all that you prove is that cold records are still being set, and why wouldn't they be in cold continental interiors or E coast regimes in particular? It's not the basis for a robust hypothesis, and all it demoinstrates is that some on here really don't understand how to structure an objective test.

If I wanted to find out the range of creatures in rockpools on a beach, I would simply go looking in an area and plot everything I find. One or two on here might start with "let's look for crabs". An hour or so later they would come back and holler about how many crabs they had found, as if crabs were all that existed."

But should these records be falling at all, after all we are being told that we are in a warming world and that winters should become warmer/milder.Surely the structure of the objective test would be if the world is warming in a way we are

being told then extreme cold should be becoming less and less.something that is clearly not happing in certain plaecs around the northern hemisphere in winter.

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QUOTE S.F.

"Hang on, when I look at December 2007, there are something like 70 maximum records set and not a single minimum. Cherry picking still proves nothing. Why are you looking at January 2007?

If you want a robust assessment go RIGHT through the last few years and produce a plot of maximum vs minimum records. If all you do is look for cold records - as Noggin seems to be doing - all that you prove is that cold records are still being set, and why wouldn't they be in cold continental interiors or E coast regimes in particular? It's not the basis for a robust hypothesis, and all it demoinstrates is that some on here really don't understand how to structure an objective test.

If I wanted to find out the range of creatures in rockpools on a beach, I would simply go looking in an area and plot everything I find. One or two on here might start with "let's look for crabs". An hour or so later they would come back and holler about how many crabs they had found, as if crabs were all that existed."

But should these records be falling at all, after all we are being told that we are in a warming world and that winters should become warmer/milder.Surely the structure of the objective test would be if the world is warming in a way we are

being told then extreme cold should be becoming less and less.something that is clearly not happing in certain plaecs around the northern hemisphere in winter.

Not just north hemisphere, puru chile brazil new zealand india have had record low temp over the last year etc .Just goes to prove no proof of global warming taking place ,infact the opposite could be occuring.

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If we're warming, it means that we are likely to see fewer cold records being set than warm records, not that we cease to get cold records at all. Especially since the globe has only warmed by about 0.6C in the last 30 years or so, while some continental interiors can vary 20-30C either side of the long-term average because of individual occurrences of certain anomalous synoptic patterns.

If it's extreme snow events you're looking at, even if we saw an increase in severe snow events across the world, it wouldn't prove that the world wasn't getting warmer. Areas that are normally cold-side of marginal could see changes in synoptics, associated with higher SSTs etc, resulting in a stronger northerly tracking jet, heavier precipitation, higher temperatures, and thus somewhat more snow. Indeed, this is precisely what's causing the recent advance of the Norwegian glaciers. Meanwhile, areas such as Britain, which are traditionally marginal for snow, end up with less snow because the increased warmth takes the temperature towards the warm side of marginal.

To analogise with another ongoing thread, it's like having a program to increase exercise and eat less, finding that there are still examples of obese people about, and thus concluding that increasing exercise and eating less is ineffective.

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If we're warming, it means that we are likely to see fewer cold records being set than warm records, not that we cease to get cold records at all. Especially since the globe has only warmed by about 0.6C in the last 30 years or so, while some continental interiors can vary 20-30C either side of the long-term average because of individual occurrences of certain anomalous synoptic patterns.

If it's extreme snow events you're looking at, even if we saw an increase in severe snow events across the world, it wouldn't prove that the world wasn't getting warmer. Areas that are normally cold-side of marginal could see changes in synoptics, associated with higher SSTs etc, resulting in a stronger northerly tracking jet, heavier precipitation, higher temperatures, and thus somewhat more snow. Indeed, this is precisely what's causing the recent advance of the Norwegian glaciers. Meanwhile, areas such as Britain, which are traditionally marginal for snow, end up with less snow because the increased warmth takes the temperature towards the warm side of marginal.

To analogise with another ongoing thread, it's like having a program to increase exercise and eat less, finding that there are still examples of obese people about, and thus concluding that increasing exercise and eating less is ineffective.

Fair point but all the forecaste on gw over the last 20years have not taken place(tempretures should have risen by 5c) there does not seem solid proof one way or another just plenty of scaremongering.

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tempretures should have risen by 5c

really!

not from any reliable source I think!

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This has been a very cold winter across northern Canada. Recently saw -53 C at Mayo, Yukon, close to their all-time record low (this is a long-duration site) and even more unusual, -50 C at Hall Beach in northeast Canada, at sea level and not in any sort of frost hollow location, wind chill at that point was -69 C. I realize these are anecdotal but I'm pretty sure the January means came in well below average and the February means are starting out that way as well. I will post some of that when I can round it up.

Today (10 Feb) bitterly cold in the Great Lakes and northern plains states, temps in parts of Minnesota have failed to rise above -25 C all day.

One other piece of the puzzle, snowfalls generally twice to three times normal this winter in the mountains of BC, Washington and northern Oregon. Temperatures averaged about 1-2 C below normal here in January, without the usual long stretches of mild rainy weather. Instead it has been snowing quite frequently here this winter, some of the higher suburban areas of Vancouver have seen 50 cms on the ground at times, which the residents say is very unusual over the past ten years at least.

My impression of the Chinese cold wave is that it was more unusual in the south-central regions than elsewhere, and that it is now fading out although not entirely back to normal. Because the first part of January was mild, the monthly anomalies won't seem that spectacular, but there certainly was a two or three week period of extreme cold and frequent snow or freezing rain by the local standards, which you could compare to central France at low elevations.

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Sorry Stratos,I wasn't cherry picking,honest! Jan 2007 was plucked entirely at random and only after posting did it occur to me that an equal number of warm records might have gone too. I accept your point,but 70 maximum records for Dec' 2007 hardly compares to 654 minimums,does it now? Especially in these times of 'global warming'.

...

Indeed not, but the correct analytical approach would be to count ALL the records of either polarity right back across the record that's available, and then plot the net. If we divide the task up it won't take that long.

I'm all in favour of objective analysis like this, that starts either without hypothesis, or with neutral assessment of one tail or the other. What never shows these threads up in a good light is poor analysis, whether mischievious, or naive.

...Again,this statistic in isolation may not mean much. However,whilst we argue about the truly miniscule (by comparison ) temp rises over long periods,a presumably natural-in-cause drop of 0.3C is ignored. Why? Wouldn't be if it was 0.3C the other way. The fact that it is the 49th coolest Jan' out of the last 114 is telling,and that 2007 is 'only' the tenth warmest year during these times of increasing CO2 outputs shows clearly that the climate does not play by the rules which 'we' have dreamed up. I haven't time to look again,but well over a 100 records have fallen to cold in Jan' 2008 over and above Jan' 2007. So many reports of cold (that's cold,not just snow ),from around the world and not just the US,make a pretty poor case for ongoing global warming,and an even worse one for AGW considering that the amounts of CO2 emitted just continue to rise. I never fail to be amazed how you turn the stats around to make them look like they say the polar opposite of what they well,say! Are you a politician, perchance?

But LG, it's only "telling" if one takes the stance, as I argued elsewhere over the weekend - and many times previously - that GW means that each and every day must be warmer, relatively, than the one that went before. That's got to be a nonsense. I keep saying, natural variability in temperature over short periods has a far greater range than the rate of background change in climate. The very slow rate of change really does only tip the balance in favour of warm events occurring very slightly (although as C-B has pointed out, over a long period cold records become less likely - for stations with a long record - because the cumulative gain becomes considerable): even in the UK we still average 2-3 cold months per annum.

I shall keep on saying it. Global warming does not mean cold events cannot occur, nor even that over some fairly sustained periods cold may seem to predominate. But go back and compare with thirty years previously and you see, time and time again, how far we have come, and continue to go.

...But should these records be falling at all, after all we are being told that we are in a warming world and that winters should become warmer/milder.Surely the structure of the objective test would be if the world is warming in a way we are

being told then extreme cold should be becoming less and less.something that is clearly not happing in certain plaecs around the northern hemisphere in winter.

Not just north hemisphere, puru chile brazil new zealand india have had record low temp over the last year etc .Just goes to prove no proof of global warming taking place ,infact the opposite could be occuring.

Lordy Lordy. Keith, you argue against my point re cherry picking by 1-doing more cherry picking; and 2-failing to check for warm records also.

This is like Little Britain: "I want that one", "but there isn't any", "but I want that one"...

The world is massive. In any given year there will still be records set of both types, and that will continue to be the case for may years - a point exacerbated by the fact that stations come and go. It's easier to surpass, say, a twenty year record than a 200 year one.

Will you explain to me why cold records should not still fall in a warming world. it's like saying it shouldn't rain in summer, and there shouldn't be warm days in winter. There is ALWAYS variability around the mean: sometimes there is exceptional variability around the mean. That's how records come to be: always has been, always will be.

Fair point but all the forecaste on gw over the last 20years have not taken place(tempretures should have risen by 5c) there does not seem solid proof one way or another just plenty of scaremongering.

Keith, where did it say temperatures should have risen by now, by 5 degrees?

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http://dailymusings.spaces.live.com/blog/c...!5227.entry

"Arctic cold coast to coast in USA"

It has been difficult to know which links to post for the USA, as there are so many. It generally seems to be state-by-state and therefore would require many links. This one, however, is about as general as I could find, for that "part" of the USA.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=4082472

"Unusual snows in Mexico".

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Apparently this winter has seen the largest extent of nothern hemisphere snow cover since 1966, as shown at: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/...est-since-1966/

So, while this insignificant island we live on is enjoying mild weather the rest of the northern hemisphere is business as usual. Which goes to show, just because our averages are 'up' it has little impact on the rest of the world.

I read somewhere else that the NOAA had said Jan was colder than the average (by 0.3F) in the US.

All swings and roundabouts really.

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jan colder by 0.3f in usa..hardly earth shattering? thts about 0.2c at most...so pretty much normal then!

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