Tropical Cyclone Ivan

[Somerset Squall]

Ivan has continued intensifying today and is now at 75kts. Further strengthening is predicted due to high sea temps and excellent outflow. JTWC has Ivan at 95kts by 24hrs which would make it the strongest it's been so far but as conditions are favourable (particularly the outflow) then it could get stronger than that. It's continued west or southwest track will bring Ivan close to Madagascar in a few days time so Ivan certainly still needs to be watched.

[Cookie]

thanks for great updates mate

[NL]

Latest images of Ivan around an hour or so ago.

There seems to be a few pixels missing, just happens to be in the forming eye..!!

[Cookie]

thanks for the great images mate

Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone IVAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

[kold weather]

Not got much time to update with this system so I'll be breif. Strong convection over the center presently with cold cloud tops, inflow channel looks ok but the outflow chanel doesn't look that well established to me. Still it is a developing system. Track still looks like its going to head towards Madagascar and it could be strong.

[Somerset Squall]

Really good images there NL, thanks for posting. I see you're getting alerts now Cookie- thanks for posting them mate.

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like Madagascar could be in real trouble from Ivan. Ivan has strengthened to 80kts and his outer rainbands are already brushing Northeastern Madagascar itself. Ivan has grown to be a pretty large system so rainfall totals (and of course damaging winds) are going to be very high unless Ivan unexpectedly changes track.

[NL]

Sat image from 0800z shows Ivan gathering strength, whats the chances of that disturbance to th SE of Ivan

developing into a cat storm?

[Somerset Squall]

Sat image from 0800z shows Ivan gathering strength, whats the chances of that disturbance to th SE of Ivan

developing into a cat storm?

I'm not sure, it hasn't been flagged up by any of the forecasting agencies yet but interesting to note (as far as I am aware) the disturbance I think you are talking about is actually the remnants of Hondo. It's been nothing but a naked swirl of clouds over the last few days but convection has increased slightly but waters are probably a little too cool for re-development I would guess.

Edited February 15, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[kold weather]

Ivan is developing into quite a impressive system, real signs of a banding eye starting to develop with an eyewall wrapping around the center now on both sides. I'm feeling happy with 100kts call indeed that may end up being a touch low in the end.

Certainly could be a big threat Madagascar, this area often sees large rainfalls from landfalling cyclones so thats a risk as will obviously the high winds, I just hope it doesn't strike soewhere thats well built up.

Edited February 15, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

I just hope it doesn't strike somewhere thats well built up.

Me too. Unfortuantely, Meteofrance is going for a direct landfall in the city of Tamatave (the countries largest port, more about it here) although obviously things can change. Due to Ivan's size I think real problems are inevitable, I just hope that death and damage is kept to a minimum, and wish the best of luck to the population.

Edited February 15, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[NL]

Looks like no part of Madagascar will escape..

[Coast]

Latest bulletin from the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center is that Ivan is forecast to strike Madagascar at about 06:00 GMT on 17th February. Thier information suggests that the point of landfall will be near 16.8 S, 50.7 E. Ivan is expected to bring one minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 166 km/h (103 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center Ivan warning site

[kold weather]

Indeed SS that could cause some bad damage, the only upside is the island is used to landfalling TC. Ivan's fairly large as well so its going to affect a large part of the northern half of the island.

The systems outflow is already spreadin moisture over the NE side of the island which is already sparking off some convective storms on the tip of the island. This time tomorrow the outer bands will no doubt be spreading over the eastern side of the island. By that time I fully expect Ivan to have windspeeds between 105-115kts which could well prove to be very dangerous for some people, thankfully there is a lot of notice with this system and has behaved how it was expected to, so far!

Should be noted hat Dvarok estimates now upto 5.5, which is suggestive that this system is pretty rapidly strengthening right now, not that surprising given the developing eyewall and eye presently gathering organisation, gives more creadence to the idea that this system will be stronger then the offical forecasts call for, the higher end of my estimate looks more probable!

Edited February 15, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have upped Ivan's winds to 95kts and predict continued strengthening until landfall in Madagascar in 24 hours time.

[Cookie]

Tropical Cyclone IVAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Edited February 15, 2008 by cookie

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 16 Feb, 2008 6:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone IVAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alert Cookie.

Ivan has continued rapidly intensifying and is now at the top end of Kold's estimate- 115kts (cat 4 on SS scale) gusting to 140kts and has a further 12 hours to intensify more. After 12 hours, Ivan will make landfall in Madagascar, but it still uncertain exactly where but Cookie's alert gives you an idea of the places expected to be affected. As said before, Ivan is an extremley dangerous cyclone, especially now it's a cat 4, and Madagascar is in real danger of flooding and and severe wind damage. Ivan, as well as been strong, is very large so the whole of Madgascar is likely to be affected in one way or another with the worst conditions through central parts.

Edited February 16, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

it appears to be getting worse!

Very Intense TC IVAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Analalava (14.7 S, 47.8 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

it appears to be getting worse!

Thanks for the alert Cookie, they're very useful to see just what areas will be worst affected. It is indeed looking worse, Metefrance have the system down to 930mb now and Ivan is still around 6 hours from landfall I would imagine so a slight deepening is possible before direct landfall later tonight. Ivan certainly looks very impressive on satellite imagery.

[NL]

Certainly does look impressive on sat image SS..

oops wrong one..

Heres the up to date one...

Edited February 16, 2008 by NL

[Somerset Squall]

Great images NL, comparing the two shows just how Ivan has grown and intensified over the last couple days.

[kold weather]

Yeah Ivan has really become a very powerful system indeed now a 115kts cyclone (1 min sustained) with a deep central pressure of 930. Eyewall is extremely well organised though that will start to change as the system moves closer to land and gets disrupted. Outflow and inflow is very good and the eye is warm and stable with some cold convection present in the eyewall. All I can say is the island better be ready or an intense system making landfall, I wouldn't like to face this system as its a beast. High rainfall totals will result and obviously some very high winds, in that N.Eyewall winds could easily be gusting upto 120-125kts which is very severe!

Edited February 16, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Ivan has made landfall and is weakening over the rugged terrain of Madagascar. Sustained winds are still at 100kts so still a very dangerous storm. A west-southwest track will continue across Madagascar and JTWC highlights the possibility of regeneration over the Mozambique Channel, though at the moment a more southerly turn may keep the circualtion too close to the west coast of Madagascar. Still, it may mean Ivan isn't done yet.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7249109.stm

Doesn't tell us much but I'm guessing they are on about Fame in the last paragraph which was only a cat 1, let's hope the death toll isn't higher with Ivan.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 17 Feb, 2008 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone IVAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)

probability for TS is 95% currently

Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)

probability for TS is 95% currently

Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)

probability for TS is 55% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)

probability for TS is 35% within 12 hour