The disappearing Winters

[Weather-history]

.

All this is during the solar minimum and with a La Nina. God help us when we're getting to the solar maximum and with an El Nino. There won't be any resemblence of a winter at all. Almost there already.

2000-01 was a solar maxima and La Nina and it was much wintrier than any of the three preceding winters.

1946-47 was El Nino and close to solar maxima and look at that winter.

Other factors play there part as can be seen from those examples.

Edited February 10, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

I am not sure the snow window is shorter though - recent history shows snow events in November and March and even April as recently as 2006 - smaller certainly, shorter? I'd say not - the potential shrinking, but not the timescale in which the potential occurs. Other than that, agree entirely, I think it may well be the case that the Beast cannot bite, we find ourselves outside the cage and unable to clamber back in.

I think it actually is shorter, but the shorter timescale is less noticable because it has shortened erratically, and without dramatic step-changes, like the frequency of Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar snowfall and snow cover did in the late 1980s.

Until the mid-20th century, widespread snow in October wasn't that unusual, and there were several documented examples in the 1800s of October snowfalls accumulating over a large part of southern Britain, and in the first half of the 20th century over northern Britain. The latter 20th century Octobers have been remarkably snow free in comparison- okay, we had a spate of Octobers with wintry spells between 1992 and 2003, but accumulations of snow were very localised on low ground. That's the main difference with shortening of the season- I suspect that Octobers 1992-2003 featured the equivalent of the cold snaps that brought accumulations in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Similarly, November. The frequency of November snowfall hasn't declined significantly since the 1980s, but lying snow has been more localised from recent November cold snaps than in some of those of the 1980s and 1990s. Again, the decline is emphasised more by declined intensity.

More marked shrinking has occurred in spring, mainly emphasised through May. We haven't had a May with widespread snowfall at low levels since 1997. In the 1980s and 1990s, we had 1981, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1995 and 1997, and to a lesser extent 1996, with fairly widespread snowfalls especially in the north. The situation with regards April is less clear, with the 2000s not being significantly less snowy than the 1990s, or say the 1940s or 1950s.

[Snowly does it]

I think it actually is shorter, but the shorter timescale is less noticable because it has shortened erratically, and without dramatic step-changes, like the frequency of Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar snowfall and snow cover did in the late 1980s.

Until the mid-20th century, widespread snow in October wasn't that unusual, and there were several documented examples in the 1800s of October snowfalls accumulating over a large part of southern Britain, and in the first half of the 20th century over northern Britain. The latter 20th century Octobers have been remarkably snow free in comparison- okay, we had a spate of Octobers with wintry spells between 1992 and 2003, but accumulations of snow were very localised on low ground. That's the main difference with shortening of the season- I suspect that Octobers 1992-2003 featured the equivalent of the cold snaps that brought accumulations in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Similarly, November. The frequency of November snowfall hasn't declined significantly since the 1980s, but lying snow has been more localised from recent November cold snaps than in some of those of the 1980s and 1990s. Again, the decline is emphasised more by declined intensity.

More marked shrinking has occurred in spring, mainly emphasised through May. We haven't had a May with widespread snowfall at low levels since 1997. In the 1980s and 1990s, we had 1981, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1995 and 1997, and to a lesser extent 1996, with fairly widespread snowfalls especially in the north. The situation with regards April is less clear, with the 2000s not being significantly less snowy than the 1990s, or say the 1940s or 1950s.

November bears the point though - regardless of how localised, the potential is still there. May I would not include as I was talking generally and lowland snow in May was and will always be, a very rare exception. October similarly, and has declined since long before the current step-change.

Amount = lower, potential = still there, just rarer.

I still say the window is no shorter, its just less intense as you say.

[Peter Henderson]

It's more common to get snow in these parts in March/April rather than Dec/Jan/Feb these days. I still don't think the cold winter is gone for good though. I think it's just a matter of the weather patterns/set ups. I've seen summer charts that, had they been repeated in Dec/Jan would have led to bitterly cold weather with lots of snow (last summer was a good example).

It seems to me that winters nowadays are dominated by a persistant high pressure over Spain /France leading to mild South Westerlies. I still think this set-up could change again though, and the trend could be back to colder winters. I remember distinctly in the early/mid sebenties there was a spell of very mild winters (73/74 and 74/75 are two that really stick out) but eventually this trend changed with some exceptionally cold ones following (78/79 and 81/82 are just 2 examples). Over the last 10-12 years we have had a few snow events/colder than usual winter periods. In 95/96 we had snow on Christmas day (1995) here. 98/99 had a pretty cold Jan/Feb, if I remember correctly. 2000/2001 and 2001/2002 both had quite heavy snowfalls just after Christmas with 2000/2001 having another persitant cold/snowy spell from the end of Feb. well into March.

Still, I did hear the BBC saying recently that the "average tempts " are going to be revised in a few years time so it will be interesting to see if anything has changed.

Edited February 10, 2008 by Peter Henderson

[Thundery wintry showers]

Still, I did hear the BBC saying recently that the "average tempts " are going to be revised in a few years time so it will be interesting to see if anything has changed.

I wonder what averages they're going to be using- 1971-2000 or 1981-2010?

[Peter Henderson]

I wonder what averages they're going to be using- 1971-2000 or 1981-2010?

Can't remember exactly but it is going to be different to the current criteria. This was in response to a viewers question asking them how they defined "normal temperatures" (or the average) and how they arrived at those figures.

Apperently these "revised" average temperatures are going to come into force in a few years time so it'll be interesting to see if they change.

[sundog]

It seems to me that we get some kind of cold/coldish winter every 5 years since the mid 80s. The winter of 85-86 was of course a cold one, The winter of 90-91 was the next cold one,then followed by the winter 95-96. The winter of 2000-01 was a fairly cool one,then the next one the winter of 05-06 was coolish. the winters 86-87 and 96-97 would be considered average (or may coolish by recent standards) but it seems generally we get some kind of a cool winter every 5 years since the mid 80s. So going by that the next cool winter should be the winter of 2010-11.

[damianslaw]

It seems to me that we get some kind of cold/coldish winter every 5 years since the mid 80s. The winter of 85-86 was of course a cold one, The winter of 90-91 was the next cold one,then followed by the winter 95-96. The winter of 2000-01 was a fairly cool one,then the next one the winter of 05-06 was coolish. the winters 86-87 and 96-97 would be considered average (or may coolish by recent standards) but it seems generally we get some kind of a cool winter every 5 years since the mid 80s. So going by that the next cool winter should be the winter of 2010-11.

Interesting observation that , another one is that we have seen since the mid 80s triplicates of very mild winters i.e. 1987/88, 1988/89 and 89/90 also 1997/98, 98/99 and 99/00 and quite possibly another triplicate on the way 06/07, 07/08 and 08/09? Lets hope not as i don't want to have to wait another 2 years for decent wintry weather.

But in reality the weather doesn't really work on such basis.

[sundog]

Interesting observation that , another one is that we have seen since the mid 80s triplicates of very mild winters i.e. 1987/88, 1988/89 and 89/90 also 1997/98, 98/99 and 99/00 and quite possibly another triplicate on the way 06/07, 07/08 and 08/09? Lets hope not as i don't want to have to wait another 2 years for decent wintry weather.

But in reality the weather doesn't really work on such basis.

yes thats true, the weather doesnt really work on such basis. Hopefully next year we will get some kind of winter,but i seriously doubt it.

[Stratos Ferric]

November bears the point though - regardless of how localised, the potential is still there. May I would not include as I was talking generally and lowland snow in May was and will always be, a very rare exception. October similarly, and has declined since long before the current step-change.

Amount = lower, potential = still there, just rarer.

I still say the window is no shorter, its just less intense as you say.

Mathematically, it would be harder for an outcome to be rarer at the margins without the average window shortening. In any case the growing season has lengthened, a point reported by several different sources over recent years. If the warm season is longer then the cold season - and so the window for snow - must be shorter. Yes, we can still get wintry instances in the margins of winter, but they are very rare indeed now, and seldom of any substance.

[cheeky_monkey]

It seems to me that we get some kind of cold/coldish winter every 5 years since the mid 80s. The winter of 85-86 was of course a cold one, The winter of 90-91 was the next cold one,then followed by the winter 95-96. The winter of 2000-01 was a fairly cool one,then the next one the winter of 05-06 was coolish. the winters 86-87 and 96-97 would be considered average (or may coolish by recent standards) but it seems generally we get some kind of a cool winter every 5 years since the mid 80s. So going by that the next cool winter should be the winter of 2010-11.

dosnt quite work...96-97 was much colder than both 2000-01 and 2005-06..strange how we now gone from severe winters to cold winter..and now to cool winters?

[Katya-Belgium-Genk]

Well. Here in Belgium it was also a very disappointing winter. In december we had a few colder days with a kind of small inversion winter. After two days we had a smog alarm :s. The coldest minimum temperature that I recorded during that period was minus 9.5 degrees Celcius. Afterwards we had a Southwest circulation for more then a month with lots of rain and windy days. In february it changed a bit. I've had sixteen nights of nightfrost, light to moderate. The lowest temperature in february was - 8.1°C. I didn't saw a single snowflake. Some people saw a sort of 'industrial snow' in december. That's it until now and personally I don't think we have to expect a late surprise.

PS: If there are some errors in my text... I do my very best to write in fluent English, but hey, I'm only a Belgian .

Edited February 26, 2008 by Katya-Belgium-Genk

[The PIT]

PS: If there are some errors in my text... I do my very best to write in fluent English, but hey, I'm only a Belgian .

It's better than my English mate.

[summer blizzard]

In reference to whether or not winter is dissapering, i would say that while is is 'dissapearing', it has definitely not dissapeared and nor will it for a long while. To prove my point we only have to go back to winter 2006 for a below average winter season, and infact January (the mildest month of the winter), was only 0.1C above average, and we have seen snow events, some quite severe.

Instead of making the case for a disspearing winter, i would ask what has happened to Autumn, the last time i recall a decent Autumn gale was October 2004, Autumns 2005 and 2006 were ridiculasly mild, and and last Autumn was one of the driest on record!!

[johnholmes]

Well. Here in Belgium it was also a very disappointing winter. In december we had a few colder days with a kind of small inversion winter. After two days we had a smog alarm :s. The coldest minimum temperature that I recorded during that period was minus 9.5 degrees Celcius. Afterwards we had a Southwest circulation for more then a month with lots of rain and windy days. In february it changed a bit. I've had sixteen nights of nightfrost, light to moderate. The lowest temperature in february was - 8.1°C. I didn't saw a single snowflake. Some people saw a sort of 'industrial snow' in december. That's it until now and personally I don't think we have to expect a late surprise.

PS: If there are some errors in my text... I do my very best to write in fluent English, but hey, I'm only a Belgian :lol: .

hi Katya

I suspect like most belgians, and your post seems to suggest so, that your written and spoken English as quite first class, and probably better than some of us on here with our own language.

also a big welcome to our weather site, I hope you enjoy all its many parts, chat, actual weather, computer outputs and forecasts.

Edited July 23, 2008 by johnholmes

[osmposm]

Better late than never, John: Katya's post was...um...five months ago!!

[Weather-history]

Here's a thread I posted recently. Not sure dial-up interent users will be able to upload it all.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=48443

[Eugene]

lol.... of course you call Dec, Jan and Feb winter still just like you call June, July, August summer still even when it hasn't been that great of a summer, long days summer. short days winter simple really and has nothing to do with how much heat or cold/snow you get, silly thread IMO.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

lol.... of course you call Dec, Jan and Feb winter still just like you call June, July, August summer still even when it hasn't been that great of a summer, long days summer. short days winter simple really and has nothing to do with how much heat or cold/snow you get, silly thread IMO.

Are you typing in Flemish? Don't quite get your point

BFTP

[LadyPakal]

Bascially, the seasons are defined by the time of year, so summer is summer and winter is winter, no matter what the weather.

Edited July 25, 2008 by LadyPakal

[Thundery wintry showers]

It depends on how pedantic the definitions are really, I think by "disappearing winters" this thread's intended meaning is "disappearing snow and frost".

[LadyPakal]

True, but that's not what the thread title says.

I was just interpreting for BFTP.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Well I wouldn't worry too much, over the next few years I'd be willing to bet winter will be making a comeback!

[Albireo380]

Well I wouldn't worry too much, over the next few years I'd be willing to bet winter will be making a comeback!

On one level, SC, I hope you are right. My part of Scotland has had mild, wet, cloudy weather over the last couple of years. As I am a keen amateur astronomer, a nice cold (and thus clear skies) Winetr would be excellent. Despite the increasing cost of fuel.

Tom

[osmposm]

......over the next few years I'd be willing to bet winter will be making a comeback!

I'm tempted to take your bet, SC. I'll be a winner either way - if we have proper cold once more I'll be so happy I won't mind losing the money; if we don't, my sadness will at least be offset by my winnings!

Or what about £100 to the charity of your choice (and vice versa) we don't have a month with a CET av below 2.0 in the next five years? February 1991 was the last. I'd even say 10 years, but who knows if we'll both be active on here that far ahead!

Ossie

Edited July 27, 2008 by osmposm