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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone 17S

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Tropical Cyclone 17S has formed, located 625 nautical miles northwest of Learmonth, NW Australia. The cyclone will move east-southeastward throughout the forecast period in response to an equatorial steering ridge to the north of the system. This will take 17S gradually closer to the northwest coast of Australia in the coming days so it may need to be watched. 17S is forecast to strengthen slowly, in a marginal environment of warm sea temps but moderate shear. It looks quite healthy on satellite imagery this morning, with deep convection over the centre and some banding noted to the southwest.

Satellite image on 17S (this cyclone is to the right, southeast of Hondo near the centre):

xxirmet5bbm.jpg

Taken from CIMSS

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17S hasn't strengthened at all since this time yesterday as it is battling a hostile environment with high shear affecting the cyclone. The shear is expected to ease a little over the next couple days but it will always hinder 17S throughout the forecst period and only slow strengthening is the way forward for this one as shear is not expected to totally relax. On the cyclone's side though is some hot waters it's aproaching, I suspect that will help 17S strengthen a little in the face of the shear. Wunderground's page shows the hot seas pretty well.

io_sst.gif

You can see waters approach or even exceed 32C around Australia which is well above what is needed to support a tropical cyclone and could help 17S if it gets this far. (btw, this map is slightly inaccurate, it shows land off the NW coast of Australia- there is so such land there so 17S would not be hindered by land interaction as this map suggests it might).

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17S is dissapating due to persistence of strong shear over the system. The low level centre is almost entirely exposed with the waning convection being heavily sheared to the southwest quadrant. Unless shear eases, it's game over for 17S. Intensity has been reduced to 35kts by JTWC at 3am though I suspect it's lower than that now.

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thanks for the update. shame it didn't get a name

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thanks for the update. shame it didn't get a name

Yeah, it was a very weak storm which formed in sheared conditions and as the shear got stronger it just couldn't cope. There is a chance it may re-develop somewhere down the line when it reaches the coastal waters of Northwestern Australia- the waters are hot in the area. That's if the low-level centre survives of course.

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The remants of 17S seem to be merging with INVEST 98S off the coast of Northwest Australia, where a cyclone could form in the next couple days. BOM and JTWC are both watching the area as the low looks pretty good at the moment with pronounced turning noted within the monsoonal trough. Conditions are generally favourable fore development too. Obviously if this cyclone were to develop it would not be re-designated as 17S as it has merged with a more dominant low.

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