How can I forecast from my data

[mattinsurrey]

Hi,

I'm on a mission. I (like some others I imagine) was given a weather station. Being in IT, it was not long before I bought a WS2300 weather station with a serial port. I have written a program that gets data every 5 minutes and has been doing this for well over a year now. It is at this point that I want to embellish my WEB site to forecast.

I have trolled the internet to understand forecasting but I need a definitive guide. For example; I read that a rapid rise in pressure indicates unsettled weather. What is a rapid rise? over how long a period? The kind of items I would like to forecast are listed here > http://www.lockes.co.uk/forecast.htm , but I need to know how to do it.

If anyone has any information, or can point me in the right direction it would be very much appreciated.

[Stratos Ferric]

Hi,

I'm on a mission. I (like some others I imagine) was given a weather station. Being in IT, it was not long before I bought a WS2300 weather station with a serial port. I have written a program that gets data every 5 minutes and has been doing this for well over a year now. It is at this point that I want to embellish my WEB site to forecast.

I have trolled the internet to understand forecasting but I need a definitive guide. For example; I read that a rapid rise in pressure indicates unsettled weather. What is a rapid rise? over how long a period? The kind of items I would like to forecast are listed here > http://www.lockes.co.uk/forecast.htm , but I need to know how to do it.

If anyone has any information, or can point me in the right direction it would be very much appreciated.

It's a good question, but, alas, not that straightforward. One of the reasons why forecasting has improved over the years is simply because there are more data available now, larterally and vertically, in the biosphere. Forecasting from a single point in space is frought with difficulty. You could do a lot worse than see the standard labels on an aneroid baromtere and compare the stated 'norm' with the actual weather to see the problem.

As a rule falling pressure will mean the weather will worsen, and winds strengthen. Climbing pressure means an improvement. Comparing upper and surface winds also provides insight; the surface usually follows the upper, giving an indication of future direction of wind, and some inference of source (cold / warm).

Knowledge of cloud types is also very helpful for near time forecasting.

[Terminal Moraine]

You could do a lot worse than buy a copy of 'The Observers Book of the Weather'.

It contains loads of basic information which you will then need to combine with your own observations as to how various weather patterns and synoptic situations impact your own locality.

Local knowledge is almost as essential as knowing the basic meteorology.

[johnholmes]

both SF and TM have given a good basic idea.

The Handbook of Weather is excellent to start with.

Try our NW Guides section also that should help.

Don't be arfaid to ask questions.

[Budgie]

I know you're looking to build it yourself but there is already a program out there that will do this taking data from other sources (customised to your location), as well as your own and modeling it all into a forecast for your local area.

Have a look at WXsim: http://www.wxsim.com/

[Stratos Ferric]

You could do a lot worse than buy a copy of 'The Observers Book of the Weather'.

It contains loads of basic information which you will then need to combine with your own observations as to how various weather patterns and synoptic situations impact your own locality.

Local knowledge is almost as essential as knowing the basic meteorology.

Do you know, I do believe that that was where my fascination first got a foothold. Somewhere in a box at home I must still have the OB of the Weather. Do they still publish OGs? I hope so; a most marvellous bit of Britain at its greatest I think.

[Terminal Moraine]

Do you know, I do believe that that was where my fascination first got a foothold. Somewhere in a box at home I must still have the OB of the Weather. Do they still publish OGs? I hope so; a most marvellous bit of Britain at its greatest I think.

I agree entirely. I'm fairly sure the OGs are still published, I seem to remember seeing a copy of the weather book in a shop a few years ago; the content had altered somewhat as might be expected.

I got my first copy somewhere around 1962 and read it until the print fell off. Although I already had an interest in the weather before then, and had even kept a non instrumental weather record for a while, it was the section on meteorological instruments in the Observers book which really set me on the path to setting up a 'proper' station.

As you say, Britain at its best, along with the I-Spy books.