Warming trend reversing?

[0000]

My advice is that you jump in an oven, turn the heat up and try to argue that because you've only been monitoring temperature for a few hours your not therefore warming up

Or a new freezer that has just been turned on and argue it wont get colder because it's warm now do you mean?

[Devonian]

Or a new freezer that has just been turned on and argue it wont get colder because it's warm now do you mean?

Well of course.

And indeed if the glaciers were advancing, UK snow more common, UK winters icy, and average temperatures falling here and globally, that people here would be arguing nothing was happening???

[Roo]

Why?

Well did you ever hear of an average phone number?

Telephone numbers aren't a MEASURE of anything. Temperature is.

Very silly comparison.

[0000]

Well of course.

And indeed if the glaciers were advancing, UK snow more common, UK winters icy, and average temperatures falling here and globally, that people here would be arguing nothing was happening???

Or indeed if the waters around Shetland Coasties part of the world were getting colder.Heaven forbid we would dismiss it for not being in keeping with fashion huh?

Well did you ever hear of an average phone number?

Telephone numbers aren't a MEASURE of anything. Temperature is.

Very silly comparison.

If you had to pay my phone bill you wouldn't be saying that!

Edited January 28, 2008 by hannegan

[Roo]

Or indeed if the waters around Shetland Coasties part of the world were getting colder.Heaven forbid we would dismiss it for not being in keeping with fashion huh?

But it's not about LOCAL events: they will always show variability, of course they will.

[0000]

But it's not about LOCAL events: they will always show variability, of course they will.

I think people will find in a huge world whatever evidence suits them.I could add Iran/Iraqi heavy snow...some would say not unexpected or mention the Winter battering America has taken...seasonal norm?Others could find hundreds more examples for and against warming(undeniable fact in my mind that Earth was)but we are certainly not in the doomsday posistion bandied around as little as 5 years ago.Climate cycles should not be dismissed out of hand and the possibility that the warming theory is wrong may gather pace.

People try to have their cake and eat it.If there's drought or a flood media etc say warmings to blame,if there's a snow event or an abnormaly cold event in the world it's dismissed out of hand as a natural occurance.

[Roger J Smith]

Personally, I doubt that the recent mild to warm regime in Europe is ending, it may have peaked as of April 2007, time will tell, but any large-scale shifts would begin to show up earlier in North America and Greenland than Europe, I believe, and there are some signs that this may be the case. It is probably too early into this process to say for sure, and even so, it would probably be five to ten years before any trend to cooler weather would be well established in Europe. So this Fair Isle observation might be classified as evidence of a flattening out of the recent warming trend. I expect 2008 to be generally warmer than 2007, at least from May onwards.

[VillagePlank]

My advice is that you jump in an oven, turn the heat up and try to argue that because you've only been monitoring temperature for a few hours your not therefore warming up

... or stick your head in the oven, your feet in the freezer and argue that your because your mean temperature says your alive it must be the case. Even though your head would be boiling

[Bobby]

It's all gone beyond sillyness now and into an unknown off the scale realm.

Edited January 28, 2008 by Magpie

[VillagePlank]

Well did you ever hear of an average phone number?

You don't do you? Why is that? Such a thing surely exists ...

Or a new freezer that has just been turned on and argue it wont get colder because it's warm now do you mean?

... or even better put a pan of hot boiling water into said freezer, claim that 'hey the system is getting warmer' before discovering that it'd been unplugged and that it had all along been a case of less output (nil) from the power source

Edited January 28, 2008 by VillagePlank

[0000]

You don't do you? Why is that? Such a thing surely exists ...

... or even better put a pan of hot boiling water into said freezer, claim that 'hey the system is getting warmer' before discovering that it'd been unplugged and that it had all along been a case of less output (nil) from the power source

Next on cookery corner.........................

[Thundery wintry showers]

Someone in CRU mentioned to me, 'regression to the mean'. Very good observational point, which should also yield some pretty strong conclusions about the warming, i.e. unlikely to be reversing.

[VillagePlank]

Someone in CRU mentioned to me, 'regression to the mean'. Very good observational point, which should also yield some pretty strong conclusions about the warming, i.e. unlikely to be reversing.

Now you've gone and blown it. Being serious and all that ...

[laserguy]

Now you've gone and blown it. Being serious and all that ...

Time for normal service to be resumed. The usual suspects will be along with meaningless stats and arguments of "if,but,well" etc. Give it up! Sure we're warming,that alleged 1C rise over what,30 years is really out of control.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.ph...wfall-increase/

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/01/2...ther/index.html

Before anyone states the b****ing obvious,sure there's nothing untoward about China snow. But look at the severity (worst for 50 years ) and the fact that this sort of thing is rapidly becoming commonplace all over the world and in places you wouldn't expect(except here,yet!). AGW adherants should have let go of the ascending balloon's string long ago;it's a long way to fall to Earth now. Reports like these from around the world are doing the AGW cause no favours whatsoever,thank goodness. Look,if our CO2 had the alleged effect of raising temperature then we're flirting with disaster by reducing it. What's it to be,a lush world of plenty where we're not voraciously burning every bit of oil,gas,coal we can lay our hands on because we don't need to courtesy of benign climate and weather? Or a world of cold,hunger,misery and death and one where resources are plundered at an even more alarming rate in a futile attempt to keep warm and eat? Climate change/CO2 means nothing now,it's...all...about...energy...resources. Oh and sustaining the industry that's mushroomed around it. An awful lot of people have got an awful lot to lose if it 'goes away'. 2008:the year AGW leaves the room while no-one's looking.

[Devonian]

Time for normal service to be resumed. The usual suspects will be along with meaningless stats and arguments of "if,but,well" etc. Give it up! Sure we're warming,that alleged 1C rise over what,30 years is really out of control.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.ph...wfall-increase/

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/01/2...ther/index.html

Before anyone states the b****ing obvious,sure there's nothing untoward about China snow. But look at the severity (worst for 50 years ) and the fact that this sort of thing is rapidly becoming commonplace all over the world and in places you wouldn't expect(except here,yet!). AGW adherants should have let go of the ascending balloon's string long ago;it's a long way to fall to Earth now. Reports like these from around the world are doing the AGW cause no favours whatsoever,thank goodness. Look,if our CO2 had the alleged effect of raising temperature then we're flirting with disaster by reducing it. What's it to be,a lush world of plenty where we're not voraciously burning every bit of oil,gas,coal we can lay our hands on because we don't need to courtesy of benign climate and weather? Or a world of cold,hunger,misery and death and one where resources are plundered at an even more alarming rate in a futile attempt to keep warm and eat? Climate change/CO2 means nothing now,it's...all...about...energy...resources. Oh and sustaining the industry that's mushroomed around it. An awful lot of people have got an awful lot to lose if it 'goes away'. 2008:the year AGW leaves the room while no-one's looking.

I've followed climate change for several decades. I don't nail my colours to an growing anthro component, but I do think it explains what is going on - surely what people like me have to do is to say is what we think and put up with the kind of dismissive reaction above to a static spell in a warming trend? We should simply jump ship at such a point as now, despite that by doing that we would be grossly misunderstanding what climate and what TRENDS are?

I know climate is weather over time - and I know what's up atm is weather. So, will 2008 (a single year) be the 'year agw leaves the room'? No one with more than any knowledge of what climate and climate change is would make that kind of claim - thus I can't believe you're seriously making such a claim?

Edited January 29, 2008 by Devonian

[laserguy]

So, will 2008 (a single year) be the 'year agw leaves the room'?

It's been building up to this point for a while. What I mean is,2008 being the year when it's no longer possible to maintain the pretense. FWIW, I've no problem with 'green',environmental policies as such,only the fact that they are being paraded under climate change instead of the real reasons,the fact that we're going to be taxed to death for no good reason,the fact that many thousands if not millions have come to depend on scaremongering and hype for their livelihoods and are actively conning people that they can actually control climate.

[Roo]

It's been building up to this point for a while. What I mean is,2008 being the year when it's no longer possible to maintain the pretense. FWIW, I've no problem with 'green',environmental policies as such,only the fact that they are being paraded under climate change instead of the real reasons,the fact that we're going to be taxed to death for no good reason,the fact that many thousands if not millions have come to depend on scaremongering and hype for their livelihoods and are actively conning people that they can actually control climate.

Actually Laserguy, the big bucks are still well and truly on the side of the fossil fuel lobby...there's far more to lose there.

http://www.foe.co.uk/pubsinfo/briefings/ht...1215150450.html

Edited January 29, 2008 by Roo

[VillagePlank]

http://www.foe.co.uk/pubsinfo/briefings/ht...1215150450.html

I'm sure, if you read the very first paragraph, critically, as you do elsewhere, you might have refrained from posting this link.

[Roo]

I'm sure, if you read the very first paragraph, critically, as you do elsewhere, you might have refrained from posting this link.

It's not chapter and verse: I posted it for the list of companies involved. Those are public knowledge.

Edit: Having re-read it, I don't actually think there's anything iffy there. IPCC is the consensus view, and they are looking at who is lobbying on the opposing side. I don't have a problem with that.

Edited January 29, 2008 by Roo

[VillagePlank]

It's not chapter and verse

I gathered that. Love the bit about secrets and conspiracies

[Roo]

I gathered that. Love the bit about secrets and conspiracies

So you will be able to tell me 'chapter and verse' why it is wrong and inaccurate then?

[VillagePlank]

So you will be able to tell me 'chapter and verse' why it is wrong and inaccurate then?

Nope. Can't be bothered.

[Roo]

Nope. Can't be bothered.

Ah good...solid debating skills still prevalent in the enviro threads, I see.

[VillagePlank]

Ah good...solid debating skills still prevalent in the enviro threads, I see.

Of course. Keep playing the pipe.

[Roo]

Of course. Keep playing the pipe.

VP all I suggested was an opposing view to that suggested by Laserguy, and I provided evidence of the organisations involved. Why I should have 'refrained' from posting it is beyond me.

All I've ever asked for is reliable evidence, why is that so bad?