Warming trend reversing?

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

I thought this would be an approriate place to put this but if the mods think it would be better suited elsewhere the please feel free to move it!

Our local met man, Dave Wheeler, at the Fair Isle Weather Station, has suggested something that I have suspected, but until now have not had any data to corroborate the theory, that in my part of the world at least, the warming we have seen over the past decades may be in retreat. In his opening paragraph to his summary of the data for 2007 recorded at Fair Isle he says:

"Overall it was another mild year with no great extremes of temperature. In a decade which has been

consistently mild and, despite the mean temperature for the year being almost one degree above the

longterm average, 2007 was the coolest year since 2001. As our maritime climate results in air

temperatures closely mirroring sea temperatures, it is no surprise to find that sea temperatures around

Fair Isle – though still above the longtern average by a similar amount – are also the lowest since 2001.

The graphs could be interpreted as indicating the warming of the past decade may be in reverse."

The full summary can be read here:

Fair Isle Wx

Dave Wheeler is a trusted local forecaster (ex Meto) with many years experience and is not given to hyperbole or exaggeration, as Im sure John Holmes will testify.

This may, of course, be a localised effect, or could it possibly be that warming may be in retreat and we are noticing it here first in the UK, due to our Northerly extremity?

[Gray-Wolf]

Do we not feel that the invigorated 'Arctic Current' (as measured this year as an 'outlet' for the record multiyear ice ablation in the arctic) may have played a teensy weensy role in any maritime influences felt in the northern waters between Greenland and Sweden?

Weather men may be good a 'picking up the ball and running with it' from a certain point in environmental science but I'm sure John Holmes will assure us they are not trained in the complexities of climate change. They may well know what effects El-Nino/La Nina have across the globe but would they understand the grass root physics behind the phenomena?

Now we are in 'unchartered territory' insofar as climate responses are concerned we must remain vigilant for any 'novel influence' which may drive regional climates......or not?

This from jan 17th

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80116114150.htm

Edited January 27, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Bobby]

For the UK as a whole last year was the 2nd warmest ever according to the met office, if I recall right. Scotland I believe had it's warmest ever year.

Going by the CET, the last 2 years are the warmest 2 year period ever in the 300+ years of the CET. The last 3 years are also the warmest 3 year period, the last 5 years, the last 10 years etc. Certainly taking the UK as a whole there is no leveling off or reversing. I don't know the exact data for that small part of this country and even smaller part of the world. What's the average temps of the last few years? I would expect they are exceptionally warm like the rest of the country.

[0000]

Somebody once said to me that people tend to agree with reports/findings that represent their own view and dismiss what does not.The northern costal extremities of our country would I believe indicate changes in climate/maritme conditions earlier than hugely populated areas as human influences are not so obvious.

If the climate is as I now believe following a naturaly occuring cycle,reports such as this will become commonplace in the ensuing years.

[dogs32]

I completely agree with you ....I reckon the earth goes in cycles every thousands of years from hot to cold....

[laserguy]

If the climate is as I now believe following a naturaly occuring cycle,reports such as this will become commonplace in the ensuing years.

Only if you know where to look for them,H! Government and media will perpetuate the global warming malarkey until it's impossible to maintain it. Won't be long now. The fallout will be spectacular.

[Hiya]

Scotland I believe had it's warmest ever year.

It was the 3rd warmest since 1914.

[Gray-Wolf]

It was the 3rd warmest since 1914.

Pretty spectacular in a 'cool down' eh?

[Bobby]

Somebody once said to me that people tend to agree with reports/findings that represent their own view and dismiss what does not.The northern costal extremities of our country would I believe indicate changes in climate/maritme conditions earlier than hugely populated areas as human influences are not so obvious.

If the climate is as I now believe following a naturaly occuring cycle,reports such as this will become commonplace in the ensuing years.

I'm sorry about how is one year of weather in one small part of one small country representive of long term trends in global climate? It wasn't even a cool year, still exceptionally warm historically, just not quite as warm as the few previous ones. There is always ups and downs in any long term trend, but the overall trend is up and as of now there is no real evidence of any sort of change in the long term trend, in the Shetlands, the UK or the world as a whole.

[VillagePlank]

In just the same way that one might say 'we haven't had enough evidence to be statistically absolutely certain of excessive warming because not enough years have elapsed' we can also say 'we cannot be sure the trend is reversing because not enough years have elapsed'

Clearly, more warming years have elapsed than cooling ones.

[Lettucing Gutted]

In just the same way that one might say 'we haven't had enough evidence to be statistically absolutely certain of excessive warming because not enough years have elapsed' we can also say 'we cannot be sure the trend is reversing because not enough years have elapsed'

Clearly, more warming years have elapsed than cooling ones.

I think human factors (CO2) and natural cooling factors (Sunspots and ENSO) will do battle over the next few years but the cooling factors will ultimately fail to reverse the warming trend.

[VillagePlank]

I'm sorry about how is one year of weather in one small part of one small country representive of long term trends in global climate? It wasn't even a cool year, still exceptionally warm historically, just not quite as warm as the few previous ones. There is always ups and downs in any long term trend, but the overall trend is up and as of now there is no real evidence of any sort of change in the long term trend, in the Shetlands, the UK or the world as a whole.

Can one actually, reasonably, rationally, and usefully say such a thing as 'global climate' ?

Edited January 28, 2008 by VillagePlank

[Hiya]

Pretty spectacular in a 'cool down' eh?

I wasn't citing that as evidence of a 'cool down' I was just telling Magpie a fact.

[Bobby]

Can one actually, reasonably, rationally, and usefully say such a thing as 'global climate' ?

Of course. Global climate is just the average conditions of the Earth, just like UK climate is the average conditions of the UK, London climate is the average conditions in London etc.

[VillagePlank]

Of course. Global climate is just the average conditions of the Earth, just like UK climate is the average conditions of the UK, London climate is the average conditions in London etc.

Of course one can make summary statistics about anything one wants to! But is it useful?

[Bobby]

Hmm, why wouldn't it be useful? If we don't know what the global climate is then how do we know anything about climate change and what to do about it? We won't know where it may be leading us so wouldn't be able to prepare and so on. Don't really understand the question...

[VillagePlank]

Hmm, why wouldn't it be useful? .... Don't really understand the question...

Is taking the phone-book and averaging all of the telephone numbers useful?

[Bobby]

No, because that's a completely different thing.

[Chris Knight]

Is taking the phone-book and averaging all of the telephone numbers useful?

Or as useful as taking the birth height and full-grown height of each person in the UK, adding the measurements and dividing by 2 to find a mean personal height, averaging this over the population as a whole, and comparing to a similar population analysis of 100 years ago.

[Bobby]

I think is all getting very silly.

[Chris Knight]

... more warming years have elapsed than cooling ones.

Interesting. Which was a greater cooling (or warming) year - 1998 or 1999?

[VillagePlank]

No, because that's a completely different thing.

Why?

[Devonian]

Is taking the phone-book and averaging all of the telephone numbers useful?

What? Say I asked what the average UK life expectancy was, you would reply "Is taking the phone-book and averaging all of the telephone numbers useful?"?

Averaging temperatures readings gives.....an average. I don't think anyone needs two brains to understand that?

[0000]

What? Say I asked what the average UK life expectancy was, you would reply "Is taking the phone-book and averaging all of the telephone numbers useful?"?

Averaging temperatures readings gives.....an average. I don't think anyone needs two brains to understand that?

There again only averaging temp's over a miniscule time period say less than 100,000 yrs let alone under 100 or since 1971 so that a warming trend is highlighted is sensible?Think I'll reach for the phonebook too.

[Devonian]

There again only averaging temp's over a miniscule time period say less than 100,000 yrs let alone under 100 or since 1971 so that a warming trend is highlighted is sensible?Think I'll reach for the phonebook too.

My advice is that you jump in an oven, turn the heat up and try to argue that because you've only been monitoring temperature for a few hours your not therefore warming up