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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Gula

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Whilst Fame strengthens far to the west, another tropical cyclone has formed way out in the ocean (around 13S, 62E). Not much threat to land at the moment, primary threat would be La Reunion if it makes it that far I would say. Conditions however, are on it's side as there is low shear and good outflow which should allow ample oppurtunity for some steady intensification. 14S is currently on a southward track, expected to shift southwesterly soon as a steering ridge to the southeast builds further southwest by about 12 hours time. As I said previously though, 14S is no threat currently. Another one to watch though!

14S (with Fame to the west and this storm near the centre)

DerImageSatellite.jpg

Taken from METEOFRANCE

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14S has strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Gula, a 40kt storm. Forecasts are bascially the same before, with Gula strengthening to 65kt (cat 1) by 48hr.

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I asked if potty if they could update the name of this thread :doh:

thanks potty, speak of the devil and he appears! *runs to hide*

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Gula has significantly intensified over the last 24 hours and is now at 65kts. Further strengthening is predicted as the cyclone pushes southwestwards over warm waters. Low shear and good equatorward outflow will ensure that Gula will continue getting stronger. In about 48hrs, Gula will be in the vicinity of Maurice and La Reunion, and as Gula is predicted to be at 90kts at this stage there could be problems with damaging winds and torrential rains. The JTWC also says there is a slim chance of Fujiwhara Interaction between Gula and the remains of Fame (if Fame's remnant low survives it's course over Madagascar) but this shouldn't be a problem for Gula as it will be stronger and will be dominant if this were to occur.

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Even if Fame did somehow survive Gula would be so dominant that the remians of Fame would be sollowed up into a secondary depression before even getting close as to disrupting Gula's circulation I'd have thought. It ma cause Galu to tug a little bit further westwards but not by much.

Anyway Gula has strong convection over its center with a nice CDO as you'd expect given its over hot waters and high heat content though as the discussionforecast recently noted tere is very little banding indeed streching out from the main CDO, thts somethng that may be interesting to see if it continues to be the case. Does look like that startng to alter though on the southern flank of the system. Microwave imagery still shows no sing if inner core organisation, ie no sign of an eyewall or eye emerging yet.

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thanks for the updates guys

Storm Alert issued at 28 Jan, 2008 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone GULA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mauritius

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Reunion

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

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Gula peaked at 85kts but has now weakened due to proximity with the recently redeveloped Fame (I certainly didn't see that one coming). There is still a possibility of a Fujiwhara Interaction as both Gula and Fame track southwards near each other. Gula is the more dominant cyclone and would come off better than the weaker Fame if this were to occur. Gula is forecasted to continue tracking southward in response to a steering ridge to the east, track speeds will increase as the ridge becomes stronger. Outflow is fair, with good equatorward outflow but poor poleward outflow. Slight re-intensification is possible as waters remain warm in Gula's track.

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Storm Alert issued at 30 Jan, 2008 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone GULA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mauritius

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

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Gula has continued to weaken and is now at 55kts, much lower than predicted yesterday. The weakening can be attributed to interaction with Fame, which has had much more impact on Gula than I thought it would. Fame is preventing poleward outflow for Gula and because of the proximity of the cyclones, Gula's deepest convection and banding has been displaced north of the centre. The JTWC still expects Gula to eventually recover: Fame will dissapate and Gula, with good equatorward outflow and improving poleward outflow, should begin to re-intensify (waters remain warm too). It is still possible that further interaction will occur between Gula and Fame, and if Fame manages to survive the shear for longer than anticipated it could further dampen any more development for Gula. It is also still possible for a proper Fujiwhara interaction to occur between the two, and I'm now a bit more unsure about what will happen if this occurs. An interesting one to watch, any views KW? They would be much appreciated. B)

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As Gula and Fame are now directly interacting with each other, the future looks a bit more bleak for Gula than earlier thought. Gula has weakened to 45kts, but still has some convection near the centre, whereas Fame's centre is almost completely exposed. As I said in the Fame thread, it's most likely Gula will win but it's not certain. Either way, the winning vortex should continue southwards and turn extratropical by 36hrs. JTWC think it will be Gula, which is stronger currently. It's worth mentioning that Mauritius and La Reunion are experiencing heavy rains and strong winds which may cause problems in the coming days.

Satellite image of Gula and Fame (Fame is the left storm, Gula the right):

20080131.1500.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.14SGULA.45kts-982mb-220S-584E.100pc.jpg

Taken from Navy/NRL, orginally from Meteofrance but the first image doesn't seem to be working

Interestingly, Meteofrance has terminated advisories on both Fame and Gula. I'm not sure why this is.

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After absorbing Fame, Gula has continued to weaken due to strong westerly shear, and is now at 40kts. Dissapation is forecast to occur within 24hrs as Gula continues generally southward, before extratropical transition by 36hrs. There is a small chance Gula will survive until then but she isn't looking too healthy right now as the centre is pretty much exposed with deep convection displaced far to the south.

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As Gula and Fame are now directly interacting with each other, the future looks a bit more bleak for Gula than earlier thought. Gula has weakened to 45kts, but still has some convection near the centre, whereas Fame's centre is almost completely exposed. As I said in the Fame thread, it's most likely Gula will win but it's not certain. Either way, the winning vortex should continue southwards and turn extratropical by 36hrs. JTWC think it will be Gula, which is stronger currently. It's worth mentioning that Mauritius and La Reunion are experiencing heavy rains and strong winds which may cause problems in the coming days.

Satellite image of Gula and Fame (Fame is the left storm, Gula the right):

Taken from Navy/NRL, orginally from Meteofrance but the first image doesn't seem to be working

Interestingly, Meteofrance has terminated advisories on both Fame and Gula. I'm not sure why this is.

Looks like a bad Cyclone there. Thanks for the updates

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If they join what do you think will happen Cookie?

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They already have "joined" Icer, Gula absorbed Fame earlier today. Gula is now weakening due to strong shear and is expected to dissapate tommorrow. The image you quoted isn't refreshing itself which probably mislead you, sorry about that. :cray:

The image in the first post is refreshing itself, and as you can see only Gula is left after the interaction. Hope that helps.

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Sorry I am not getting any images on this topic.

And thanks

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Ah right, is it just on this topic? Can you see this one?

Can see that one.

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Can see that one.

Cool :rolleyes: . As you can see, Gula doesn't look all that impressive anymore and should dissapate tommorrow.

Certainly has been interesting watching Fame and Gula interact, this is the first proper Fujiwhara interaction I've seen since I became interested in Tropical Cyclones. Has been great to learn from :cray:

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Cool :cray: . As you can see, Gula doesn't look all that impressive anymore and should dissapate tommorrow.

Certainly has been interesting watching Fame and Gula interact, this is the first proper Fujiwhara interaction I've seen since I became interested in Tropical Cyclones. Has been great to learn from :rolleyes:

Got the pics on now don't know what it was :cray:

Thanks for the updates Somerset

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Got the pics on now don't know what it was :rolleyes:

Thanks for the updates Somerset

I don't blame you Icer, when Gula and Fame were interacting they looked pretty messy, they barely looked like tropical cyclones :cray:

That's ok, glad to help.

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