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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Fame

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Tropical Cyclone Fame has formed off the coast of northwestern Madagascar, with an initial intensity (JTWC) of 40kts. Steering influences are currently small, so Fame won't move much for at least 24hrs. After this, a southerly track taking the cyclone through the Mozambique Channel will begin, with a curve closer to the coast of Madagascar occuring around 90hrs. Intensification will occur initially due to good outflow and favourable sea temps. However, I think Fame will begin to weaken by Sunday due to an increase in shear and land interaction with Madagascar as Fame will be getting closer to the coast by this time.

Satellite image: (bottom left)

xxirmet5bbm.jpg

taken from CIMSS

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thanks for the update wasn't on wounderground before :wallbash:

si200813.gif

it is now!

Storm Alert issued at 25 Jan, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAME is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

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Fame looks petty decent and has expanded its convective coverage overnight probably in response to very warm waters and decent condtions. Microwave imagery showed an eye last night but since the convection has become a little more fragmented in nature and thus the eye has somewhat decayed though the eastern eyewall remians intact, as there is still decent convective coverage on the eastern side of the system with another large convective mass on the western side. If it can pull these two lobes together again then Fame could develop pretty quickly despite heading towards land, if it remains a little bit of a mess then slow strengthening looks the way to go.

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Fame looks petty decent and has expanded its convective coverage overnight probably in response to very warm waters and decent condtions. Microwave imagery showed an eye last night but since the convection has become a little more fragmented in nature and thus the eye has somewhat decayed though the eastern eyewall remians intact, as there is still decent convective coverage on the eastern side of the system with another large convective mass on the western side. If it can pull these two lobes together again then Fame could develop pretty quickly despite heading towards land, if it remains a little bit of a mess then slow strengthening looks the way to go.

Thanks KW. As you say, conditions are pretty decent and Fame has intensified to 55kts. However, both JTWC and Meteofrance have it tracking over land pretty soon, Meteofrance even suggest 24hrs, the JTWC 48hrs. This would obviously induce weakening, but how likely is a direct southerly motion taking it over land? Yesterday both JTWC and Meteofrance had it moving southwestward and then southward tracking it over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel. Is this a plausible scenario aswell?

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Tropical Storm FAME is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mayotte

probability for TS is 75% currently

Madagascar

probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

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Fame has continued to strengthen and is now at 65kts. An eye is visable on latest satellite imagery and Fame still has about another 24 hours in which to make use of the favourable conditions to strengthen. Landfall is forecast to occur beyond 24 hours which will gradually weaken the storm.

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Storm Alert issued at 26 Jan, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone FAME is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mayotte

probability for TS is 55% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

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With good equatorward and poleward outflow, Fame has intensified further, to 80kt, just shy of cat 2 strength on the SS scale. Some more intensification is possible before landfall in Northwestern Madagascar, which is likely to cause further flooding and damaging winds. Fame could easily put on another spurt of quick intensification as the outflow is so good, between 90-100kts is what I estimate at landfall, and winds like that will cause serious problems to the areas in Cookie's update. A situation that needs closely watching.

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Tropical Cyclone FAME is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 95% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)

probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

si200813.gif

fame is providing more interest then I thought it would!

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thats not good I hope they don't get a direct hit!

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As expected the landfall has seen the downgrade to Tropical Storm.

Damage seems to be minimal thankfully. But, as mentioned above, the threat of rainwater is severe.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Fame's strength (category 1) at landfall includes:

Storm surge generally 1.2-1.5 metres (4-5 feet) above normal.

No real damage to building structures.

Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees.

Some damage to poorly constructed signs.

Some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.

There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

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Thanks for that Cat 5.

Fame has now degenerated into a remnant low over the high terrain of Madagascar. If it's remnant low survives until it reaches water, there is a small chance it could re-develop, but it's not likely as conditions will not be favourable as shear will be high, probably as Gula is in the vicinity. As I mentioned in Gula's thread, if Fame is still a remnant low when it reaches water it may be close enough to Tropical Cyclone Gula for some interaction, and this is another reason why Fame most likley will not re-develop, as Gula will be far larger and stronger and will probably absorb Fame's remains. An interesting scenario.

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yes defiantly something to watch

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Fame redeveloped last night as it hit the warm waters again, indeed it looked good this morning however over the last few hours there has once again been a change with the outflow from Gula starting to inflict shear on Fame which will help to start to weaken it....as will Fame also help to weaken Gula which is indeed aso happening with Gula losing its eye it has out earlier.

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it proving something very interesting to watch

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it proving something very interesting to watch

Certainly is Cookie. I've been in London the last couple days with no internet, and I certainly didn't expect Fame to have redeveloped. Fame's second life isn't going to be all that long though as increased wind shear will gradually kill Fame off before extratropical transition at around 24hrs.

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Fame doesn't want to give up and has strengthened from 35kts to 45kts this morning. However, shear is now impinging on the cyclone from upper level westerlies, and this should bring Fame to it's final demise by 48hrs.

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Most likely, but it isn't certain. The latest JTWC indicate that Fame has weakened back to 35kts due to strong shear. The path has become very erratic as Fame and Gula are now undergoing a direct Fujiwhara interaction, with both centres spinning around each other. Gula is still expected to be the dominant cyclone and absorb Fame or simply shear it apart, however, this isn't certain. There is a chance that Fame might overcome Gula- the JTWC stresses how uncertain they are about what will happen and the models are all over the place, so it really is wait and see. Fujiwhara Interactions are really fascinating IMO.

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Latest from JTWC indicates that Fame is pushing northeastwards as it circles around Gula. Fame is still expected to dissapate soon due to unfavourable upper level conditions. Gula may still absorb Fame.

REMARKS:

312100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 52.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST

OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING IS BEING ISSUED EARLY BECAUSE THE

TRACK FORECASTING PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY HAS

INDICATED THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC 13S

HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS A RESULT OF DIRECT

CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TC 14S AND CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION

FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO PERSISTENT

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 13S DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER

LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ULTIMATELY, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD

TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE DIRECT

CYCLONE INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND CAUSE TC 13S TO TRACK

EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE

BOTH SYSTEMS AND STEER TC 13S SOUTHEASTWARD. OVERALL, THE DIRECT

INTERACTION OF THE TWO CYCLONES IS CREATING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERT-

AINTY IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY

RESOLVING THE INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONES AND THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF

THE OBJECTIVE AIDS. OF THOSE OBJECTIVE AIDS, NOGAPS AND GFDN APPEAR

TO BE HANDLING THE SCENARIO BEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO

TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY

UPDATES.

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Fame is no more. It seems that Fame has been absorbed by the larger Gula as it is very difficult to identify any seperate circulation anymore. Fame's southeastward motion and Gula's westward motion brought them even close together and the JTWC are pretty sure that absoption has taken place or is currently taking place. Fame has certainly been a fighter, and a notable storm- especially how the centre survived the rugged terrain of Madagascar and how, although weaker, it managed to have a significant effect on Gula and in the end a proper Fujiwhara interaction, which isn't an all too common occurence. Certainly been facinating to watch.

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I have to agree more fame! a great follow.

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