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sandstorm2

Ensembles

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Looking for help in reading the ensembles, the graph type ones.

haven't a clue!

SS2

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I have a q regarding the GEFS ensembles published on NW (free ones), sorry if it has been raised before. The plots show the individual GEFS ensemble members (various colours), the GEFS control run (blue), a mean average of all these (red) and the GFS (green) output superimposed. I was wondering if the GFS and GEFS outputs are from corresponding runs? i.e both 0z, both 6z? I ask as the GFS sea level pressure output on the 0z ensemble did not seem to tally to the 0z charts?

Cheers

S

Afternoon,

I've copied this over from the model thread as it is probably a bad day to ask a qu on there as i think most have their eyes on other matters!!! Anyways, just hoping someone could put straight on this. Unfortunately i have not got the charts i was looking at but what caught my eye was that the GFS line was showing a very low MSLP for devon (approx 965-970 if i recall) which was a good 10-15mb lower than the synoptic chart indicated. Timescale wise I was looking at Feb 1-2, a good 7-8 days ahead, so i'm wondering if it is an issue of grid resolution? Steve Murr's comment about london = IOW springs back to mind now.

Cheers

S

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