Moon Phases

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

Havent posted for a few days , been a bit busy , especially in the evening , with looking after the Daughter, last night we rushed her into hospital around 2000hrs, Expecting her first child, so im going to be a GRANDAD hopefully before dinner time, Just had a phone call from daughters boyfriend , and daughter is doing fine, he reckons the baby should be born around 0800- 0900 this morning, so im chuffed to bits,

Anyway back on topic

its been raining cats and dogs here for the last two days , 14mm has fallen since yesterday morning at 0640, and this month the rain total is currently reading 47.6mm , this month so far has been wetter than september and october, where sept saw 36.9mm fall and october saw 21.6mm fall .and there seems to be no let up, especially over the next few days ,where the rain could turn too snow in the north east on friday morning

Of course there will be a FULL MOON ON THE 24TH of this month

nigel

[Cookie]

are you a grandad yet?

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

Sorry too be off topic on this one but regarding too my last post this morning ,

At 1345 hours i became a Grandad, after 43 hours of labour my Daughter finally gave birth too a baby boy weighing in at 8lb 8ozs

Im chuffed too bits

nigel

[Cookie]

well done matey

back on topic. hows the wind looking for sat nigel?

[Roger J Smith]

That's cool when a young fellow like yourself is a grand-dad and as far as I know, I'm not yet ... as for the question OON asked, Nigel may have a theory on it, mine is this -- there are preferred zones for low pressure formation at these postulated triggering event times (such as full moon), and in my research I have found nine of them which I call "timing lines" -- because I started the research in N America, timing line one is near the Great Lakes, and then there are eight others separated about equally around the globe. These tend to run diagonally rather than straight north-south and as such have the same shaping as the magnetic field, which is why I theorized that the events are disturbances caused by the Moon in the earth's magnetic field, in a sort of interference pattern.

The timing line closest to the UK is number three in this set, and it runs from west of Iceland across Ireland into France. From this observation I have noted that on the average, the onset of the strongest storm conditions in the UK are likely to be a few hours to about half a day later than the triggering event, as the timing line involved is to the west.

However, to make things more complicated, these timing lines seem to oscillate east-west over periods of time that seem to indicate that other planets in the solar system are having a slight effect on the overall magnetic field structure. The last few events have been a bit early rather than late, but I ascribe this to a large westward shift in the whole system, so that timing line four, which is normally over the Baltic region and western Russia, is drawn closer to the North Sea so it temporarily becomes the timing line for UK storms. This should reverse over the winter, meaning that the storms won't come early as they have done (the new moon event was over norther Scotland on the 8th about 24 hours before the new moon astronomically), but more or less on time. The grid seems to be returning to what I would call equilibrium position.

If you're interested in this, read on, I will describe briefly the nine timing lines and how they seem to function. Bear in mind that they curve substantially and cross the equator well to the east of where I describe them for the northern mid-latitudes, then appear in the southern hemisphere more or less 180 degrees removed in longitude.

Timing line one through eastern N America runs from western Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes to S Carolina and then into the subtropical Atlantic. This is perhaps the most active of all timing lines and coincides with the zero deviation line for magnetic (compass) north. This discovery dates back to 1981.

Timing line two through east coast N America and east of Newfoundland is also a very active storm zone, and becomes even more active at times when the system is distorted westward because it then captures some of the central magnetic field energy reserved most of the time for timing line one.

Timing line three through western Europe runs from west of Iceland through Ireland and France. You know all about what can happen there.

Timing line four has a mean position from the Gulf of Bothnia through western Russia into the Caspian. This can be quite an active zone but when there is a large trough or cut off high in this position, the events tend to get squeezed considerably to the margins both north and south.

Timing line five through central Siberia is less active, the events are usually about half the intensity of most of the other timing lines, as there is only land and no ocean or open water under most of this zone.

Timing line six runs through eastern Siberia (all of these radiate out from the NMP) and Japan towards Guam. This zone can look a lot like timing line two, but is also distorted by the normal presence of the summer and winter monsoons, so a lot of the events are troughs rather than actual low pressure centres.

Timing line seven runs through the western Pacific and is almost all over warm water. This makes the storm track bunch up considerably towards 40 N and a lot of the events are intense and well-formed.

Timing line eight is just to the west of the west coast of N America and runs through the Baja into Mexico. This timing line also sees a regular parade of active lows at event times. Thus here in Vancouver, I can expect to see intense storm activity about 12 hours to 24 hours after astronomical event times, as the lows move further east.

Timing line nine in the series is in the lee trough of the Rockies and is therefore quite distorted by the climate processes of the lee trough environment. The timing line curves from Alberta southeast into Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure regime here is fairly intense and when there are two strong events separated by 3-4 days, there is usually a major storm that forms on timing line nine and then moves to timing line one.

In the southern hemisphere, I won't go into the same detail, but timing lines one to four are in the Indian Ocean to New Zealand. Timing line seven crosses South America and timing line eight crosses South Africa.

I know this is a lot of detail in a generally unaccepted theory, but this thread is for discussion thereof, so there you have it. If you don't wanna know, don't ask, sort of thing.

[Rollo]

Evening everyone

Sorry too be off topic on this one but regarding too my last post this morning ,

At 1345 hours i became a Grandad, after 43 hours of labour my Daughter finally gave birth too a baby boy weighing in at 8lb 8ozs

Im chuffed too bits

nigel

Congratulations Grandpa Nigel,I hope all are well.

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

Cookie and Weathermaster

I would batten down those hatches tomorrow night, wind should start to pick up around 21z, then should get stonger around 2200hrs [ up to 50mph expected]

Also some heavy rain expected in the early hours

FULL MOON ON THE 24TH

NIGEL

[Zenarcher]

Evening everyone

Cookie and Weathermaster

I would batten down those hatches tomorrow night, wind should start to pick up around 21z, then should get stonger around 2200hrs [ up to 50mph expected]

Also some heavy rain expected in the early hours

FULL MOON ON THE 24TH

NIGEL

Thanks for the warning

Im glad to hear your good news

[Cookie]

thanks nigel

[stormchaser1]

Cookie and Weathermaster

Take care up there tonight , it looks as though its going to be a wild night for you both

Nigel

[Greyowl]

Evening everyone

Sorry too be off topic on this one but regarding too my last post this morning ,

At 1345 hours i became a Grandad, after 43 hours of labour my Daughter finally gave birth too a baby boy weighing in at 8lb 8ozs

Im chuffed too bits

nigel

Congratulations Nigel

[PB22]

Congratulations Nigel! 43 hours of labour, and I thought 16 hours was bad enough for my daughter!

[Cookie]

Cookie and Weathermaster

Take care up there tonight , it looks as though its going to be a wild night for you both

Nigel

thanks mate

[Zenarcher]

Cookie and Weathermaster

Take care up there tonight , it looks as though its going to be a wild night for you both

Nigel

Thanks again

[stormchaser1]

Morning Everyone

Next weekend {Commencing the 31st November) The moon phase will be in THE last quarter phase [ACTUALLY THE 1ST dec] SUNDAY. Now according to records i have aquired , this period tends to get quite windy, especially just before the event happen

My Forecast for next weekend

Strong winds for some parts of the Uk , {not sure where yet} Saturday into Sunday could be when the strongest of the winds takes place, Also again with data i have acquired this also tends to be a very wet period,

So unfortunately next weekend is looking a bit bleak , wet and windy , However, it should be a mild weekend

I will post some charts when i have had time to look at the 00z models

Nigel

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

Well looking at the models this morning , they are clearly showing windy conditions for next weekend , strongest of the winds look set to be around South West Ireland around Skibbereen to Caherciveen

Of course these will be downgraded , during the week , but ignore the downgrade,

MOON PHASE NEXT SUNDAY LAST QUARTER

See my last post

nigel

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

its still looking very windy for next Thursday , especially from Galway down the coast to Tralee Bay winds upto 60mph

This is the culprit

nigel

{ will update this in the morning

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

quick update regarding thursday ,and friday

Nigel

[stormchaser1]

Possibility for a Severe weather warning for this one!,, Stranraer/ across to Carlisle down the coast to Liverpool , with Isle of Manalso being affected, winds up to 60mph

[Zenarcher]

Hi Nigel hope you don't mind me posting this here.

update chart for thursday

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

Just a quick post from me this morning, {due to lack of time} off too work in 15 mins!!

Regarding the Moon phase stage between Full moon and Last quarter!

Between October 26th {Full moon} and Nov 1st {last Quarter} we saw a mild spell, Pressure fell by 16mb in just one day on the 28th which was when the moon was changing to waning gibbous, approx 3 days after the Full Moon, also we had rain.Low Pressure

Between November 24th {Full Moon} and Dec 1st {Last Quarter} its happened again , pressure dropped by 16mb yesterday 28th again just around the Waning Gibbous stage, again it has been mild {Low pressure Down to 998. 9 this morning}and we have also seen some rain , last night and this morning

Could this be a time to look out for Low Pressure systems developing ,I wonder, ?????

will post more data later tonight or at the weekend

Nigel

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

Well my forecast for this weekend looks pretty much spot on {posted last weekend ] On the 24th.

Last quarter moon phase today the 1st December.

Last months data

Strongest winds last month occured around the New Moon which was on the 9th November, winds gusting up to 50mph on the actual day,, I also found that 2 days after the New moon it turned pretty much calmer, however we did manage a few wind gusts around the First quarter on the 17th but nothing to shout home about,

Also i found that again just after the New moon it turned a lot cooler than it was around the Last quarter moon phase, infact it was cooler just after the New moon and leading up to First Quarter and just After the First quarter , temp dropped to 0c just before the first quarter , and then again temp dropped to -2c just before the Full moon on the 24th

This month December im going for

DEC 1ST LAST QUARTER [ WINDY BUT MILD]

DEC 9TH NEW MOON [ VERY WINDY turning cooler just after]

DEC 17TH FIRST QUARTER [ cooler but calm]

DEC 24TH FULL MOON [ ALOT COOLER JUST BEFORE, XMAS EVE VERY COLD WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING[ WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT FROST ON XMAS DAY]

DEC 31ST LAST QUARTER = very windy and wet

Nigel

[stormchaser1]

My Pre Xmas Forecast

FULL MOON ON THE 24TH DECEMBER

DEC 24TH

Windy, Cold at night and early morning , with a possibility for a slight frost on Xmas day, Also we could see some kind of Precipitation on this day

DEC 25TH [ XMAS DAY]

Slight breeze, but dry, cold very early hours again possibility for a slight frost

DEC 26TH BOXING DAY

Slight breeze remaining dry, however again cold at night and early morning ,

SUMMARY

Cold during the night and early hours, with a slight breeze 25th/ 26th/ remaining dry

Unfortunately i cannot see any SNOW falling on xmas day or Boxing day at this presant time, Best chance for Snow to fall Xmas Eve my odds for a White Xmas very Low

Nigel

[pottyprof]

Cheers for that Nigel.. Interesting reading.. :lol:

[Roger J Smith]

Nigel, Cookie, Pottyprof and the legion of lurkers reading this thread ...

I should post this in my own research thread and will probably do so later when I have more data, but I thought you might all be very interested to see that there is a temperature profile that relates to the Moon for the January data in the daily CET.

I also looked at December, came to some different conclusions about Christmas weather than Nigel but I think that's perhaps because I looked at a more specific sub-set, I do see that in the raw data there is a dip in temperatures around the time of the full moon on the 24th, using all available similar data.

But anyway, for January daily CET with the lunar dates similar (every 19th year, so 1989, 1970, 1951, 1932, 1913, 1894, 1875, 1856, 1837, 1818, 1799, and 1780 form the data base), here is the daily profile averaged out:

1.3

2.4

3.4

3.6

3.2

3.4

3.1

2.9

3.7

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.7

4.8

5.8

5.4

5.0

5.2

5.3

4.9

4.6

4.7

5.0

4.1

4.3

3.9

2.6

2.0

2.6

2.2

So as you can see there is quite a variation, with the first few days of the month continuing what I am sure would be a cold period in late December from that data, then a warmup with a slight peak on the 10th after the new moon, but signs that the whole period from new moon to full moon goes more zonal with above normal temperatures prevailing, peaking in the week before the full moon (the northern max event I talk about comes 3 days before full moon), and a steady if not sharp cooling trend after the full moon (23rd).

The graph of this profile looks like this:

..............................X..............................

..............................X..............................

..............................XX....X.....................

..............................XX..XX.....................

..............................XXXXX....X...............5.0

............................XXXXXX..XX...............

............................XXXXXXXXX...............

..................X........XXXXXXXXX..X............

..................X........XXXXXXXXXXX............

..................XXX....XXXXXXXXXXXX........4.0

................XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX........

......X........XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX........

....XX..X....XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX........

....XXXXX..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX........

....XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX........3.0

....XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX........

....XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX..X..

..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX..X..

..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX..XX

..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX2.0

..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

The range between coldest and warmest days in this lunar profile is 4.5 degrees, almost one-half the overall range of monthly CET values and one-quarter the range of extreme temperature values (11 to -11, or 22 degrees). So this lunar factor appears fairly strong in these data. You can clearly see that snowfall would be more likely around the first and last few days of such months, than through the middle, although this particular January may run opposite to that as other factors come into play.

As I say, my own forecasting takes these profiles into account but then adds other non-lunar factors, so I don't just make a forecast based strictly on these data.

The profiles appear to change somewhat from the cold climate period of the earlier data, to the warmer climate period of the 20th century. The December change was larger than the January change, the profile for December shows very cold weather quite routinely at the late month full moon (here I had time to look at many more cases, this is after all only one-nineteenth of the total data for January). The more recent full moon events showed a tendency to warm up to at least near normal before a cold spell set in afterwards. So with the warming climate, I find, certain events have more of a change factor going on than others, if an event was mild in the colder climate period, it would just become that much milder nowadays, but some of the low pressure tracks that formerly missed central England to the south presumably now move further north so there is a faster change in the data.

I hope Nigel you don't mind me posting this here, I think more NW members should be getting interested in your investigations as well as mine and others, and here they can see some hard evidence that the Moon IS indeed having an effect on the atmosphere. I will keep working on January data to set up a larger data base, between these years in the 19-yr sequence there are probably four other sets that have fairly similar full moon dates, not exactly the same but within 2-4 days so the separation of full moon and northern max which I think is a significant sub-feature would not change. Of course you would have to adjust the data so that the full moon stayed on the 23rd day of the profile. That might take a week or two, then I will report back what perhaps 80-100 years of similar lunar dates reveal in terms of a profile for January.

Edited December 2, 2007 by Roger J Smith