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stormchaser1

Moon Phases

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Pressure has now fallen to 1001.3hpa , a fall of 16.9mb in just under 24hrs,Moon was a full moon on the 26th, now its changing to Waning Gibbous, Temp is quite high , currently 15.9c , warmest night we have had for some time , we had a gust of 26.3mph go through at 0515hrs

Nigel

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Started to rain around 0530 this morning [very lightly} however the heavens opened up at 0614hrs, altogether between 0530 and 0614 0.5mm rain fell , bringing the total so far to 19.6mm for the month, pressure has also increased slightly, now at 0719hrs pressure is reading 1002.6hpa, temp has fallen to 13.8c

================================================

Personally i reckon we could have to wait until 2009 before we get another cold xmas new moon 16th december first quarter 24th december

Also xmas 2008 new moon december 27th first quarter Jan 4th 2009 {this could be a very cold New year}

====================================================

xmas 2007

unfortunately there will be a full moon on the 24th december so im expecting this xmas to be on the mild side,{mild and breezy xmas day and windy boxing day] however leading up to xmas could be on the cold side ,first quarter on the 17th december with the new moon on the 9th december {watch around the 17th }

nigel

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Update for the dates around the 11th november New moon on the 9th

i will update again tomorrow morning

nigel

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Very interesting :)

The last two years we had stroms on the 11th and now again this year would the moon at that time cause that?

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Morning Weathermaster

Thats why im trying to gather as much data as i can, also im making daily notes, position of the moon, moon phase etc,

People will prob laugh and say its all been done before ,{thats there opinion} but i find this interesting and one day i will come up with a few answers, Its going to take time

Nigel

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Morning Weathermaster

Thats why im trying to gather as much data as i can, also im making daily notes, position of the moon, moon phase etc,

People will prob laugh and say its all been done before ,{thats there opinion} but i find this interesting and one day i will come up with a few answers, Its going to take time

Nigel

Morning Nigel

Thanks for the answer and i find it all interesting and keep it up :)

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Cookie this one is for you , Regarding next weekend

Next weekend the moon should be Waning Crescent,

here are a few charts for next weekend

[attachmen

t=47679:saturday_09z.png]

Nigel

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Cookie

Here is an update for next weekend using the 18z charts

As you can see , still showing wind for your region

Nigel

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Next month im going to be keeping a sharp eye on the dates between 8th November (new moon on the 9th} and the 22nd November , {First quarter on the 18th}

At presant things are looking as though there could be a cold snap just after the first quarter ,17th could be very cold then cold on the 18th/ 19th/ 20th/ 21st/ 22nd

Then turning slightly milder

i will follow this up with more data tonight when i come home from work

Nigel

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Morning everyone

Im still convinced that between the 16th November and the 22nd November could be a very cold period, Moon phase will be in First quarter during this period,

Im expecting rain on or around the 7th November {New moon on the 9th) also im expecting a windy period around the 11th, {moon should be changing from New Moon to a Waxing Crescent}, Also on the 9th the moon will be Apogee at 1233. and rain could fall on this day

[attach

ment=47870:11th_wind_12z.png]

Nigel

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updates for the 9th and 17th

17th being the first quarter

9th being the New moon

I still expect to see a cold period around the 17th {not for every , Mainly Northern and scottish regions }

nigel

Also winds are still showing for the 10th

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Thursday November 1st. Last quarter today for the moon phase, Pressure at midnight

Went to 1023.2hpa however pressure now at 0410hrs is rea-

Ding 1023.1hpa. It has been a relatively mild night with the

Temp not getting below 13.0c. Temp at midnight was 13.4c, now at 0410 the temp is reading 13.8c. Today has been quite breezy especially this afternoon where 27.0 mph gust went through. It has also been the warmest opening day for November on record. Pressure is currently reading 1029.1hpa with the temp reading 15.0c at 2034hrs. Moon phase {last quarter} @ 21.18hrs, pressure at this time was 1029.2hpa; there was also a SW breeze just before, however this switched to a WSW just after, temperature at 2118hrs was 14.9c. Temperature started to fall away around 2152hrs.

Max temp today= 15.2c

Min temp today= 13.4c

Average temp today= 14.3c

FRIDAY 2ND NOVEMBER

Moon is situated ESE at 0430hrs, with a Halo around the moon. There is a slight NW breeze, with the temp currently on 14.2c, pressure now is reading 1029.7hpa. Temperature started to rise again around 0945; however temperature dropped to 12.7c between 0800 and 0900hrs. During the afternoon temperature rose again and between 1415hrs and 1430hrs temp reached 16.9c, however temp started to fall again and at 204hrs temp dropped to 12.0c

Pressure at 2359hrs was reading 1028.6hpa, a fall of 2.6mb, throughout the afternoon. Pressure briefly reached 1031.2hpa at 1045 this morning and since midday pressure started to fall slowly

1045= pressure – 1031.2hpa

2359= pressure= 1028.6hpa

We have had a slight WSW breeze throughout the day and at 0731 a gust of 18.1mph went through; wind speeds have been anything up to 5.3mph

MAX TEMP= 16.9c

MIN TEMP= 12.7c

AVERAGE= 14.8c

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At 2303hrs on the 9th November the Moon will be a NEW MOON

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9TH november {NEW MOON]{UPDATE}

Its still looking as though it could get cold on this day

also looks to be very windy on the 8th just before the New moon

Nigel

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IM GOING TO BE VERY BRAVE AND HAVE A GO AT GIVING YOU A WINTER FORECAST USING THE MOON PHASES

Here is my WINTER FORECAST [uSING THE MOON PHASES}

This is just a shortened version, will go into more detail later this month

DECEMBER

1ST LAST QUARTER 1244= PRECIPITATION

9TH NEW MOON 1740= FAIR, BUT CHILLY

17TH FIRST QUARTER 1017= COLD WITH STRONG WINDS

24TH FULL MOON 0116= COLD AND FROSTY

======================================

JANUARY

8TH NEW MOON 1137= COLD AND WINDY

15TH FIRST QUARTER 1946= COLD/ FROSTY BUT FAIR

22ND FULL MOON 1335= PRECIPITATION

30TH LAST QUARTER 0503= PRECIPITATION

======================================

FEBRUARY

7TH NEW MOON 0344 PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SNOW

14TH FIRST QUARTER 0344= PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SNOW

21ST FULL MOON 0331= PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SNOW/ WINDY

29TH LAST QUARTER 02213= PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SNOW/ WINDY

It is looking as though February could be the coldest month {throughout the winter period}

like i mentioned at the beginning of this opost i will go into more detail towards the end of this month

Nigel

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Just a quick update using the 18z charts ,

NEW MOON on the 9th

Nigel

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Nigel, just a couple of theoretical ideas to keep in mind for this event -- much of the energy for this storm on Thursday night has originated from a tropical storm (Noel) and as such the root cause for it may be larger scale energy flows in the solar system magnetic field. So this event may prove to be stronger than analogues that you are using from other Novembers.

Then the second idea is that the moon's southern max (where it reaches 27 S) and the Jupiter conjunction on the 12th at 22z form a strong energy event about 72-84 hours after the new moon.

I've mentioned in the model discussion thread that timing lines seem to have shifted well to the west and rather than using timing line three as I've described in the astro-climatology section, timing line four has moved back west towards the North Sea and this would explain why the strong energy is coming through a bit earlier than the new moon which I believe is around 23z on Friday.

Glad to see that you're looking at this approach, but expect a rough ride for a while yet as we are way outside the camp of the orthodox here. :)

I think it will "deliver" if you know what I'm saying. :)

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Morning Roger

Thanks for the Comments , appreciate that thankyou [ ive noticed that on the charts this morning there seems to be another cold pool approaching around the 14th , in line with the First quarter on the 17th !!

ANYWAY UPDATE FOR THURSDAY

Its still looking as though the Western Isles could be hit with wind speeds around 50 to 60 mph,

After the initial winds then Cold around 18z {Which i think John Holmes has mentioned in another thread]

Below is the first charts out for the 16th

As you can see another Cold spell Just before the first quarter on the 17th {which i have mentioned before}

nigel

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Morning Roger

Yes the New moon should be in place around 2303hrs [give or take 5 minutes]

In November 2006 New moon was on 20th at 2318hrs

In November 2005 New moon was on 2nd at 0124hrs

Also In December 2005 we had 2 New Moons first one was on the 1st Dec at 1501 and the 2nd was on the 31 December at 0312

Nigel

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winds still look to be quite strong for the western isles Thursday

Looks like the North East could just miss the strongest of the winds, but could still be hit with posssibly 30 to 35mph winds

I know a few people will prob say this could have been put into one of the other 3 threads started, on this topic, but ive been watching the developing of this storm for quite some time now,, and if possible would like to ask the MODS PLEASE D`ONT delete this

Nigel

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Pressure at 1734hours here in the North East was reading 1028hpa, now at 2030hrs pressure is reading 1024.8hpa, thats a 3.2mb fall in 3 hours . ,

nigel

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