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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm just a lazy git and I am very glad that you can put in the hours !

I know (from personal experience) that the moon does influence not just the Weather.

Gooow on Nigel, I say!

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Cookie

No ive not given up , {not my style]. at the moment im trying to do too many things at once,. {not enough hours in the day }!

Also im trying to get together as much information as i can , as im trying to prepare my winter forcast by using the data i have {and using the moon phases} i know we are in summer {well sort of}

i will report soon !

nigel

thats great to know that you haven't given up ;)

:) hello...I'd just like to say how glad I am you are keeping your research going.

I've been a member for months but never posted but regulalry visited to read your posts. I was kinda worried you'd stopped.

There, I've posted now.

Congrats on the good work...

welcome mate and agree with what you are saying

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

Evening Everyone

Well what a day , many parts in the Uk has had today.

IS THIS JUST COINCIDENCE [personally i dont think so}

This evening there will be a FULL MOON, AT 1923 HRS

Also today the moon was in PERIGEE on the same day as the full moon , PERIGEE occurred at 1303hrs THIS AFTERNOON .

Todays PERIGEE will be the closest the moon gets to earth for another 6months. Also todays Perigee was approx 357250km

Todays Perigee was the closest to earth for the last 5 months starting January - June.

Look whats happened today , heavy torrential rain for many p[arts of the Uk .

Now ive mentioned the 12th DECEMBER BEFORE and now im getting very concerned about this day and around this day,

DECEMBER 12th there will be a FULL MOON at approx 1637hrs, also on this day the moon will be PERIGEE , this time the moon will be closest to the earth for the whole year, approx 356567km , im going to stick my neck out and say another severe weather event will take place around this date, either just before or just after

people will think im mad, and say its just coincidence but i dont think so ,

nigel

i will post later this week or at the weekend with some stats and more figures ,

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL

I thought tonight was a new Moon Nigel. Full Moon being on the 18th

Edited by Greyowl
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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

Well spotted GREY OWL, yes indeed tonight is a NEW MOON and not Full moon as i stated in my last post , well spotted again

ITS BEEN A LONG DAY TODAY , driving around in all that rain , {thats my excuse]

nigel

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
Well spotted GREY OWL, yes indeed tonight is a NEW MOON and not Full moon as i stated in my last post , well spotted again

ITS BEEN A LONG DAY TODAY , driving around in all that rain , {thats my excuse]

nigel

I will forgive you as your waterlogged. :(

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

REMEMBER WHEN I POSTED THIS March 15th this year

Look at the three dates i mentioned , that i was interested in JUNE 3RD was one of those dates , whats today JUNE 3rd

Morning everyone

Just to add to my last post

May 6th New moon phase also on this day the Pmoon will be in Perigee, looking at the perigee time table

January 19th 366435

February 14th 370215

March 10th 366301

April 7th 361082

May 6th 357771......................New moon

June 3rd 357250.....................closest since february

July 29th 363886

August 26th 368692

September 20th 368888

October 17th 363826

November 14th 358972

December 12th 356567..............closest to earth for the whole year

Three dates im interested in are on may 6th/ june 3rd/ and December 12th the main one

December perigee i think there may be a severe storm around this date, due to the moon being the closest to earth for the whole year. this event will also coincide with the SPRING TIDES, so im expecting very stormy conditions around the coastline

MAY event im going along the same lines with stormy conditions especially around the coast line, this could be a strong spring tide

====================================

SEMIDURNAL

This is the differance in height between high and low waters over a period about half a day, varies in a two week cycle

Around the new moon or full moon when the sun, moon, and earth form a line [known as a syzygy] the tidal forces due to the sun reinforce those of the moon. The tides range is then maximum {known as spring tides]

When the moon is at first quarter of last wuarter, the sun and moon are seperated by 90 degrees when viewed from the earth, and the forces due to the sun partially cancel those of the moon. At these points in the lunar cycle the tiides range is minimum {NEAP TIDE}

There is a 7 day interval between spring and neap tides

When the moon is in PERIGEE the range is increased and at APOGEE The range is decreased

Every 7.5 lunations PERIGEE coinincides with either new or full moon causing PERIGEAN TIDES,

nigel

This post has been edited by stormchaser1: 15 Mar 2008, 04:39 AM

nigel

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Couldn't figure out where to put this but thought here may be a good place, hope that's ok??

It's a site where you can type in any date, past or future and it will tell you where the planets in the Solar system are/were/will be.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Nigel, I noticed your request in another thread.

The December full moon at perigee will occur about 24 hours before a northern max event. The climatology of these suggests a double-centered low complex moving north of Scotland so until we get closer to the event and see what kind of set-up is in place to handle this energy, I would say the biggest chance for severe weather would be in western Scotland and the far north of Ireland from strong SW winds. If the UK happens to be in a long-wave trough or close to an amplified jet at this time, then a damaging wind event could cross more populated parts of the central and southern UK and Ireland.

I remember last December the full moon and northern max were twinned and Cookie felt the winds on that one but the rest of the UK was shielded by the last remnants of that persistent blocking high. Large high pressure areas are also a signature of the lunar perigee, so the storm potential has to be qualified -- the overall gradient can increase from high to low at this point in the lunar cycle, but blocking is a fairly high probability, so it all depends where the jet stream sets up.

At this point, I am pretty much convinced that other factors set the jet stream location, then the lunar energy interacts with that according to the position of the strongest winds aloft. And northern max, always close to a December full moon, is a time for enhanced northern blocking, so ... this will get very interesting towards the end of November when a set-up is more in focus to make an accurate forecast of where this event will take place.

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

ROGER

Thanks for your repy , much appreciated

=========================

Today the 16th June Moon in Apogee approx 406228km occured at approx 1734hrs this evenng

18th JUNE FULL MOON at approx 1730hrs {heavy rain expected}

nigel

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
I've got few articles written many many years ago about the theory the influence of the Moon has on the weather. I'll post them sometime.

Mr Data

Thanks for that , much appreciated

======================

Anyway 1st july will see the moon in perigee approx 363886Km on the 3rd July the moon will be a New Moon , exactly the same as june but time differance,

look what we saw in june on Perigee and New moon , heavy rain , look whats forcasted for the new moon and just before {rain}

nigel

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Hi folks, over in the enviro section we have a topic about Lunar cycles and their effect upon weather and climate.

Mr. David Dilley has published a book in which he says the changes in climate both now, and in the past are as a result of Lunar influence and gravitational effects upon high pressure weather systems. Here is a link to an excerpt giving an outline of his theory:http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2008/7/prweb1081014.htm

Mr. Dilley has kindly agreed to join the forum and enter into discussions upon his work; I thought perhaps folk here may be interested in joining in too.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...t=0&start=0

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

Mornng mr Data

Thankyou for your last post, very intersting read indeed , thankyou again

nigel

Moon is currently going into Apogee , which will be on the 14th July at approx 0414hrs, Next stage of the Moon phase ill be Full Moon on the 18th July

nigel

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

Moon phases / perigees and apogees for winter 2008/ 2009

DEC 12TH FULL MOON 1637

DEC 12TH PERIGEE 2138

DEC 26TH APOGEE 1751

DEC 27TH NEW MOON 1222

====================

JAN 8TH NEW MOON 1137HRS

JAN 10TH PERIGEE [357500KM] 1053

JAN 22 FULL MOON 1325

JAN 23RD APOGEE [406115KM] 0012HRS

=======================

FEB 7TH NEW MOON 0344HRS

FEB 7TH PERIGEE [361486] 2009HRS

FEB 19TH APOGEE [405131KM]

FEB 21ST FULL MOON 0330

=========================

Significant dates to keep a watch on

DEC 12TH

FEB 7TH [2009]

======================

My winter forecast will follow in the next couple of months , im just gathering some data , which may take a while

nigel

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Moon phases / perigees and apogees for winter 2008/ 2009

DEC 12TH FULL MOON 1637

DEC 12TH PERIGEE 2138

DEC 26TH APOGEE 1751

DEC 27TH NEW MOON 1222

====================

JAN 8TH NEW MOON 1137HRS

JAN 10TH PERIGEE [357500KM] 1053

JAN 22 FULL MOON 1325

JAN 23RD APOGEE [406115KM] 0012HRS

=======================

FEB 7TH NEW MOON 0344HRS

FEB 7TH PERIGEE [361486] 2009HRS

FEB 19TH APOGEE [405131KM]

FEB 21ST FULL MOON 0330

=========================

Significant dates to keep a watch on

DEC 12TH

FEB 7TH [2009]

======================

My winter forecast will follow in the next couple of months , im just gathering some data , which may take a while

nigel

I think you need to check the dates of New and Full Moons in

January and February 2009.

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

Morning STELLA

Thankyou for pointing that little mistake out , those are for 2008 , my sincere apologies

i will revise these dates later

nigel

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

Revised list for new and Full moons for winter 2008/ 2009

DEC

FULL MOON= 12TH 1637HRS

NEW MOON= 27TH 1222HRS

JANUARY

FULL MOON= 11TH 0337HRS

NEW MOON= 26TH 0755HRS

FEBRUARY

FULL MOON= 9TH 1449HRS

NEW MOON= 25TH 0135HRS

Again my apologies for any inconvieneces caused

nigel

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

It's interesting to see that data from the 19th century in Germany. I think it is rather hard to follow but in any case, I would not expect it to show huge variations from my own research, because Germany happens to lie about mid-way between timing lines in the geomagnetic field, so it is not that well placed to show the focussing of low pressure on a timing line.

I have not finished my own research into daily variations in the UK so I have only a rather anecdotal understanding of how the data might look if we plotted daily precip vs the lunar cycle. As I have identified the shorter 27.32 day sidereal cycle as being perhaps 50% stronger in this regard than the synodic cycle (full and new moons, 29.53 days) I have plotted most of my own research results against that shorter 27.32 day cycle.

For Toronto which happens to lie almost ideally just downstream from timing line one in the system, there is quite a sharp peak in precip at mid-winter and mid-summer full and new moons which are superimposed on the more powerful northern and southern max events. If you run a separate filter to identify other events such as the Moon's conjunction with Jupiter (approximately 27.50 days) you also find significant peaks. These peaks are on the order of 2 or 3 times the background precip per day, which is fairly significant over 160 years of data.

As I've stressed though, lunar events take a path dictated by the interaction between jet stream and field sectors, so a long-term study will only reveal statistical tendencies and not form a predictive framework. To get accurate predictions, you must have some way of predicting not only the timing, but the location of the timing lines that the lows will cross, and the latitudes at which they will cross them. Otherwise you just have a series of hit and miss forecasts based on chance.

Nigel seems to have done a lot of work identifying analogue cases, so he may well find that he is doing better than random with this approach. Dates are not the only guide to analogues though -- the dynamics that might apply to a full moon on December 1st, for example, will not be hugely different on December 4th, but what needs to be similar would be the other variables in the model to set up the field structure. So I rely more on similar field analogues than date analogues, even though these can be very helpful too. The date of lunar perigee also has significance, but perhaps in the opposite sense, there is likely to be stronger high pressure with lunar perigee than just average lunar distance. This would suggest a deflection to the north in most cases of low pressure. This winter, the perigees are going to fall at northern max, meaning close to full moons in December and January. Unless there is massive arctic type blocking, I would expect the storm track around those times to run north of Scotland and bring the strongest winds to the far north.

I'm sure this research will creep along for a few more years, eventually there will be enough significant findings and a meeting of the minds and some computer modelling can begin to generate actual forecast maps and try to refine these, sort of like seeing FI months in advance, and not necessarily a lot more accurate than FI, but everyone looks at those with some interest too. It would be really quite a stunning development if we could use this technique to shore up FI so that map accuracy degrades slower than at present and perhaps the current 5-7 day accuracy would at some point become the standard for a longer FI period of 30-60 days. That's what we are striving for, in any case, but given the lack of funding, recognition and resources this will take quite some time to accomplish. I hope everyone with any interest in it keeps going and keeps sharing insights until perhaps one day we will have this result.

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

during the coarse for this months {july} moon phases

New moon {3rd}- First quarter 10th

Heavy rain through this period, heaviest of the rain fell on the 9th which was just before the First quarter moon phase, 11.4mm fell on this day , overall 32mm fell between these two dates

Between First quarter {10th} and Full Moon {18th] yesterday this was a relatively dry period where 17.6mm accumulated,

The driest sequence occured arround APOGEE where it was dry on the 13th/ 14th/ 15th/ 16th/ APOGEE fell on the 14th

Next sequence will be the Full Moon {yesterday 18th} to last quarter which is on the 25th

PERIGEE WILL occur on the 29th

=======================================

MORNING ROGER

Thanks for your last post , interesting read as always

has you mentioned about Perigee being at northern Max , Im still loooking around december 12th for a decent weather event to occur, PERIGEE AND FULL MOON to occur on the same day im expecting some very strong winds especially for the Western isles , {too early to be precise} but these are my thoughts

nigel

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