Wettest 12 Months on record?

[Stevew]

As the run of unsettled weather continues, the question is, will the 12 months from 1st August 2006 to 31st July 2007 be the wettest 12 month period ever recorded in the UK? More specifically I feel that this may be the case for England.

We have experienced a number of really wet months over the past year, such as October, November, December, January, May, June and July. Will this soaking set a new record for the 12 month period?

[Optimus Prime]

Should defintetely be in the top 5 but I suspect that exceptionally dry April might just bring the figure down too much.

[Weather-history]

. Will this soaking set a new record for the 12 month period?

No for any 12 month period

The wettest year is 1872 with 1284.9mm, its not going beat that

As for August to July period

August 2000-July 2001: 1267.7mm

August 2006-July 2007: ~ 1165mm

Edited July 22, 2007 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

how high up would we be Mr.Data, must be a good shout to suggest its in the top 50 wettest 12 month periods?

[nkaol2001]

As the run of unsettled weather continues, the question is, will the 12 months from 1st August 2006 to 31st July 2007 be the wettest 12 month period ever recorded in the UK? More specifically I feel that this may be the case for England.

We have experienced a number of really wet months over the past year, such as October, November, December, January, May, June and July. Will this soaking set a new record for the 12 month period?

Undoubtedly. But what is the interesting question is: why is the climate degenerating so rapidly over England? What about these so-called "experts", who keep on saying Britain's climate is getting warmer,drier,& sunnier each year? Yet it's exactly the reverse: we have more cloud, rain, & lower temps every year, & it's steadily getting worse. Anyone old enough to remember lovely years like 1975/76, will knopw how far the climate has deteoriated in the last 30 years.

Personally, I think we will NEVER experience a normal summer,or even year again, it will always be wet from now on, until eventually most of England sinks beneath the onslaught, with huge loss of life by around 2025. Nowhere else in the world has such consistently bad climate as England now, & the Gov't needs to address this & fast, otherwise there is no future.

[Optimus Prime]

Or, rather there's no future for humans living on Britain. I'm sure the earth will spin without us!

[Stevew]

Or, rather there's no future for humans living on Britain. I'm sure the earth will spin without us!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...tics/ukrain.txt

Rainfall records back to 1914 enclosed.

Steve

[Stratos Ferric]

Undoubtedly. But what is the interesting question is: why is the climate degenerating so rapidly over England? What about these so-called "experts", who keep on saying Britain's climate is getting warmer,drier,& sunnier each year? Yet it's exactly the reverse: we have more cloud, rain, & lower temps every year, & it's steadily getting worse. Anyone old enough to remember lovely years like 1975/76, will knopw how far the climate has deteoriated in the last 30 years.

Personally, I think we will NEVER experience a normal summer,or even year again, it will always be wet from now on, until eventually most of England sinks beneath the onslaught, with huge loss of life by around 2025. Nowhere else in the world has such consistently bad climate as England now, & the Gov't needs to address this & fast, otherwise there is no future.

Bizarre

[bluearmy]

Bizarre

more like 'scary'.

i think this period was a strong possiblily. many on here and TWO felt that the trough wuld be a lot closer to us than last summer with the plume affecting E europe. given the high SST's and latent heat left over from the warmest winter for ages over europe, the atmosphere would be predisposed to holding more moisture = more precip. the southerly depth of the jet is remarkable and responsible for the lack of any blocking in our parts...............lets not lose track of reality though

[Bobby]

Undoubtedly. But what is the interesting question is: why is the climate degenerating so rapidly over England? What about these so-called "experts", who keep on saying Britain's climate is getting warmer,drier,& sunnier each year? Yet it's exactly the reverse: we have more cloud, rain, & lower temps every year, & it's steadily getting worse. Anyone old enough to remember lovely years like 1975/76, will knopw how far the climate has deteoriated in the last 30 years.

Personally, I think we will NEVER experience a normal summer,or even year again, it will always be wet from now on, until eventually most of England sinks beneath the onslaught, with huge loss of life by around 2025. Nowhere else in the world has such consistently bad climate as England now, & the Gov't needs to address this & fast, otherwise there is no future.

Well, it doesn't get any better than that, that's for sure.

[Terminal Moraine]

Undoubtedly. But what is the interesting question is: why is the climate degenerating so rapidly over England? What about these so-called "experts", who keep on saying Britain's climate is getting warmer,drier,& sunnier each year? Yet it's exactly the reverse: we have more cloud, rain, & lower temps every year, & it's steadily getting worse. Anyone old enough to remember lovely years like 1975/76, will knopw how far the climate has deteoriated in the last 30 years.

Personally, I think we will NEVER experience a normal summer,or even year again, it will always be wet from now on, until eventually most of England sinks beneath the onslaught, with huge loss of life by around 2025. Nowhere else in the world has such consistently bad climate as England now, & the Gov't needs to address this & fast, otherwise there is no future.

Your argument appears to operate entirely independantly of the facts.

The 'lovely' years of 1975 and 1976 were a very long way from normal and, far from deteriorating in the last 30 years, the climate has steadily warmed; have you forgotten the summers of 1983, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006?.

I can't remember anyone other than the tabloid newspapers suggesting that the British climate would get warmer, drier and sunnier each year, certatinly no one with any scientific credibility has suggested it and your assertion that it will now be wet for ever seems to be based entirely on the fact that we have had 3 wet and cloudy months in a row; certainly a very flimsy platform for such a blanket hypothesis.

As for 'nowhere else in the world has such consistently bad climate as England now' I suggest you try Atak in the Aleution Isles for starters and then get back to me.

T.M

[Stratos Ferric]

...I can't remember anyone other than the tabloid newspapers suggesting that the British climate would get warmer, drier and sunnier each year, certatinly no one with any scientific credibility has suggested it ...

For anyone subscribing to the general received wisdom regarding GW, the general punt on the effects for the UK are that our climate would tend to become more Mediterranean (in climatic type, not strict comparison with the typical norm in the wider geographical area): milder damp winters, warmer drier summers. I'd expect that to be moderated slightly by the overall view that a warner global climate will be wetter, hence warner and wetter overall for the UK would be a fair bet, and within that occasional variation to cool/dry in winter or hot/dry in summer.

A perusal over the past fifteen or so years would suggest that as a general hypothesis it's not bad.

[johnholmes]

Undoubtedly. But what is the interesting question is: why is the climate degenerating so rapidly over England? What about these so-called "experts", who keep on saying Britain's climate is getting warmer,drier,& sunnier each year? Yet it's exactly the reverse: we have more cloud, rain, & lower temps every year, & it's steadily getting worse. Anyone old enough to remember lovely years like 1975/76, will knopw how far the climate has deteoriated in the last 30 years.

Personally, I think we will NEVER experience a normal summer,or even year again, it will always be wet from now on, until eventually most of England sinks beneath the onslaught, with huge loss of life by around 2025. Nowhere else in the world has such consistently bad climate as England now, & the Gov't needs to address this & fast, otherwise there is no future.

first welcome to the Net Wx fold.

Plenty to enjoy in here.

Could you be kind enough to give your place/nearest town in your avatar please?

many thanks

now to your post.

I think you have a very short memory, just 12 months ago for instance.

Quite how you can use the phrase you start with about our climate degenerating so rapidly I'm at a loss to understand. Weather and climate are not quite the same science, albeit closely aligned.

Edited July 22, 2007 by johnholmes

[Toppler]

nkaol2001 = Just looks like a wind up post, not worth the keyboard time to reply...

[jethro]

Undoubtedly. But what is the interesting question is: why is the climate degenerating so rapidly over England? What about these so-called "experts", who keep on saying Britain's climate is getting warmer,drier,& sunnier each year? Yet it's exactly the reverse: we have more cloud, rain, & lower temps every year, & it's steadily getting worse. Anyone old enough to remember lovely years like 1975/76, will knopw how far the climate has deteoriated in the last 30 years.

Personally, I think we will NEVER experience a normal summer,or even year again, it will always be wet from now on, until eventually most of England sinks beneath the onslaught, with huge loss of life by around 2025. Nowhere else in the world has such consistently bad climate as England now, & the Gov't needs to address this & fast, otherwise there is no future.

And to add to all the other comments, what would you have our government do? HUGE umbrella? Give grants for Ark building? And 1976? Er, hello was that ever considered normal or usual climate round here?

[Terminal Moraine]

For anyone subscribing to the general received wisdom regarding GW, the general punt on the effects for the UK are that our climate would tend to become more Mediterranean (in climatic type, not strict comparison with the typical norm in the wider geographical area): milder damp winters, warmer drier summers. I'd expect that to be moderated slightly by the overall view that a warner global climate will be wetter, hence warner and wetter overall for the UK would be a fair bet, and within that occasional variation to cool/dry in winter or hot/dry in summer.

A perusal over the past fifteen or so years would suggest that as a general hypothesis it's not bad.

I wouldn't disagree with that, S.F. My picking up of nkaol2001's point about 'warmer drier and sunnier each year' seems to indicate that (s)he falls into the camp, inhabited by a large section of the 'general public', that GW will result in each successive summer being at least as warm, dry and sunny as the one preceeding it and any deviation from that process is to be regarded as an indication that, either the experts are wrong or that there is no G.W.

The reality is much as you have outlined above where a gradually warming climate will also be an increasingly wet climate with a bias towards warm, dry and sunny summers but not precluding a summer such as the one we're having this year.

The cry of 'Britain will have summers like the south of France' is largely perpetuated by an uninformed media and is, unfortunately swallowed whole by a large number of people. Britain may well be heading towards a summer climate which, on average, is more akin to the south of France than what has gone before but we should also be aware that this 'new climate' is likely to involve a much greater degree of variablility on both an annual and a seasonal basis.

Despite a warming climate, endless summer heat and wall to wall sunshine should certainly not be expected every year.

T.M

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Or, rather there's no future for humans living on Britain. I'm sure the earth will spin without us!

Are you still rattling on about that? Blimey!

I know my records aren't official, but the highest annual total I've recorded is 1550.5mm in 2000, followed by 1296mm in 1999, 1256mm in 2002 and 1205mm in 2004. So far this year, I've received 704.4mm so it would suggest I'm not going to exceed my 2000 record, but who knows?

No for any 12 month period

The wettest year is 1872 with 1284.9mm, its not going beat that

That's not the wettest year for the UK though is it? It rains more than that each week in the Lakes.

[Hiya]

Undoubtedly. But what is the interesting question is: why is the climate degenerating so rapidly over England? What about these so-called "experts", who keep on saying Britain's climate is getting warmer,drier,& sunnier each year? Yet it's exactly the reverse: we have more cloud, rain, & lower temps every year, & it's steadily getting worse. Anyone old enough to remember lovely years like 1975/76, will knopw how far the climate has deteoriated in the last 30 years.

Personally, I think we will NEVER experience a normal summer,or even year again, it will always be wet from now on, until eventually most of England sinks beneath the onslaught, with huge loss of life by around 2025. Nowhere else in the world has such consistently bad climate as England now, & the Gov't needs to address this & fast, otherwise there is no future.

Last year it was never going to rain in England again if I remember rightly.

[Stevew]

Looking through the records, just to refine the criteria somehat; the period May-July 2007 is the wettest for these three consecutive months since when?

[Weather-history]

Looking through the records, just to refine the criteria somehat; the period May-July 2007 is the wettest for these three consecutive months since when?

Since records began. I've been regularly posting updates on this in this thread.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...9056&st=119

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The reality is much as you have outlined above where a gradually warming climate will also be an increasingly wet climate with a bias towards warm, dry and sunny summers but not precluding a summer such as the one we're having this year.

The cry of 'Britain will have summers like the south of France' is largely perpetuated by an uninformed media and is, unfortunately swallowed whole by a large number of people. Britain may well be heading towards a summer climate which, on average, is more akin to the south of France than what has gone before but we should also be aware that this 'new climate' is likely to involve a much greater degree of variablility on both an annual and a seasonal basis.

Despite a warming climate, endless summer heat and wall to wall sunshine should certainly not be expected every year.

T.M

Warmer temps, warmer seas more moisture in the atmosphere and also we have entered La Nina dominated phase of perturbation cycle. This to me adds up to wetter conditions and summers like this will be not uncommon especially when La Nina rears its head.

BFTP

[The PIT]

Warmer temps, warmer seas more moisture in the atmosphere and also we have entered La Nina dominated phase of perturbation cycle. This to me adds up to wetter conditions and summers like this will be not uncommon especially when La Nina rears its head.

BFTP

I thought La Nina hadn't happened as yet and everything was in a neutral phase at the moment.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The other problem with saying "Britain's climate will become like the Mediterranean" is that the dryness around the Med is probably related to the topography of the area and the close proximity of the instability-inhibiting sea. For example, the Mediterranean coast of France is reliably dry and sunny all month every month in a typical summer, but in south-western France, at the same latitude, thundery downpours are not uncommon- storms may develop over the mountains of north-east Spain and head up the Dordogne valley for example. (This happened on a few occasions while I was there last week)

Britain's topography and sea combination, meanwhile, is totally different to either the Med or south-western France- northern Scotland lies in the path of the North Atlantic Drift for example.

Also, while the trend towards warmer, drier and sunnier summers was strongly evident from 1989 through the 1990s, it seems to have been arrested somewhat in the 2000s- the trend for warmth is still there, but the trend for sun and dryness has receded.

[Scorcher]

Also, while the trend towards warmer, drier and sunnier summers was strongly evident from 1989 through the 1990s, it seems to have been arrested somewhat in the 2000s- the trend for warmth is still there, but the trend for sun and dryness has receded.

Maybe so but we've had several very memorable months with exceptional amounts of sunshine since 2000 although most of these have occurred from 2003 onwards. I have to say that the first 3 summers of this decade were very mediocre with very little to write home about. We have, however, seen a number of exceptionally sunny months with the whole summer of 2003 springing to mind as well as June and July 2006, with the latter being the sunniest month on record of course.

[johnholmes]

Ian

You surely do not mean this

close proximity of the instability-inhibiting sea

perhaps I should try and explain why the statement is not quite true.

The sea is cooler than the land - true

It does cause an inversion to develop over the sea - true.

There are mountains around much of the Med - true

The southern side of the Med is more under the sub Tropical High - true.

Then we have to look at some relatively minor events the above cause.

Just like in the UK, and we have seen examples of this this summer(my item on thunderstorms and sea breezes illustrates), in that as the land heats up so it causes a slight(usually) fall of pressure compared to the pressure over the sea. Again as in the Uk this sets up a local wind direction, for a time, this moves very moist air over the land, and once again, as in the UK, but enhanced by the proximity of the mountains, can cause thunderstorms to develop, not on the coast but inland over the mountains.

Granted storms are imported as Ian says but quite often they are locally generated. A good look at some of the airfield weather diagrams for airfields around the northern half of the Med will reveal this.

Edited July 24, 2007 by johnholmes