July CET

[Optimus Prime]

Going to be a cool night tonight, largely down to +10c but possibly in the countryside, away from all the towns down to +7c. Locally in northern England with radiation cooling (Cumbria for example) temperatures could drop down to +6c and +3 so frost territory there.

The current minimum according to the mettofice is provisionally 11.9c which is 0.7c above the average for the first half of July. According to the GFS the period 10th-15th the minimum will average 9.9c which is 1.3c below average.

The current provisional maximum temperature is 18.4c which is 1.9c below normal up until the 8th. According to the GFs the period 10th-15th will have an average temperature of 19.8c which is 0.5c below average for the first half of July.

By the 15th expect the minimum CET to be around 11.2c which is equal to the 1961-1990 average.

Maxima will be around 19.1c which is 1.2c below average.

[Don]

Looks as though this July could well be more similar to July 2002 or 2004 rather that July 2005 as I originally thought. Therefore my CET punt will be around 1C too high. Still, would be nice to have an 'average' month temperature wise for a change, although I don't want to speak too soon.

[summer blizzard]

Well i must say that my punt for the 1st-10th of 15.2C-15.4C proved a good one, and instead the CET looks to be lower, at 15C or even 14.9C on the 10th.

While i'll probably change this before the 11th, currently i expect the period 11th-20th to record a CET around average, which is 16.5C for that ten day period, meaning that by the 20th, i expect the CET to be 15.9C-16.1C.

The last third of the month is looking average or below, so at this stage, i would call for a CET between 15.3C-16.4C.

Note, i may revise my punt for the second third of the month on the 10th.

[damianslaw]

How refreshing it is that at this stage in the month we are seriously considering that we could actually be about to record a below average CET shock horror!

We've become so accustomed to having to put another above average month in the bank at ridiculously early points in any given month in the last few months. This month feels very very different to any other month since last August

[West is Best]

Last night seems to have been even colder than the night before in the CET zone and today wont be as warm as yesterday

No but by the same token tonight will be warmer than was being predicted for the most part in the CET zone (the cold zone looks like north-east).

Still think the CET will finish 16C+ and possibly by a lot. But then, hey, what do I know. Think I'll stick to politics and await the winter!

Edited July 9, 2007 by West is Best

[cheeky_monkey]

Well i must say that my punt for the 1st-10th of 15.2C-15.4C proved a good one, and instead the CET looks to be lower, at 15C or even 14.9C on the 10th.

While i'll probably change this before the 11th, currently i expect the period 11th-20th to record a CET around average, which is 16.5C for that ten day period, meaning that by the 20th, i expect the CET to be 15.9C-16.1C.

The last third of the month is looking average or below, so at this stage, i would call for a CET between 15.3C-16.4C.

Note, i may revise my punt for the second third of the month on the 10th.

how many punts do u need???...if u keep revise it on a day 2 day basis your bound to be right...stick to one guess like evryone else..greedy guts!!

[Stu_London]

Manley - to 9th July (from www.climate.uk.com)

CET - 15.0

Hadley - to 8th July (hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html)

CET 15.3

NW Tracker to 10th July 6am (www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess)

CET 14.89C

Still looks like a temporary warm up around the 15th. How low does it go before then and how much can it recover?

[eddie]

Back in early June I would have said there was 50% chance that we could see a year with every single month above average, we were getting above average months with what seemed like below average synoptics. That seems to be looking much less likely now.

It looks like we are going to maintain the current CET of 15C, or perhaps a slight drop, until the 14th. It would then take a 2nd half CET of 17.8 to give us an above average month. I would say there is less than a 20% chance of an above average July now.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Back in early June I would have said there was 50% chance that we could see a year with every single month above average, we were getting above average months with what seemed like below average synoptics. That seems to be looking much less likely now.

Amazing what a cooling SSTA regime does to the CET! -0.5C below average is looking about right now.

What we need for a winter, as much as a -ve NAO is a mini-NAD shutdown: -1/-2C anomalies all around the UK.

Edited July 10, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[summer blizzard]

how many punts do u need???...if u keep revise it on a day 2 day basis your bound to be right...stick to one guess like evryone else..greedy guts!!

These extrapolations are unofficial, my 17C punt still stands, i am mearly saying what i think the CET will be upto a certain timeframe.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Can we have some almost half-way analysis? Who's in the running and who isn't (unless WIB is winning in which case shall we leave it?)?

[shuggee]

Since you can't be bothered to look at the first post of the thread Mr Nil, here's a faxcimile for you:

14.2C: Mike W

15.5C: Jim AFCB

15.6C: noggin

15.7C: Snowyowl9

15.8C: shuggee

15.9C: Beng

16.0C: fishdude

16.0C: ghrud

16.1C: Stephen Prudence

16.1C: VillagePlank

16.2C: Terminal Moraine

16.3C: Kentish Man

16.4C: DR Hosking

16.4C: cheeky monkey

16.4C: The underwriter

16.5C: Gavin P

16.5C: Stormchaser1

16.5C: The calm before the Storm

16.6C: Summer of 95

16.6C: osmposm

16.7C: Damianslaw

16.7C: Snowray

16.8C: Snowfluff

16.8C: Mr Maunder

16.8C: Stargazer

16.8C: acbrixton

16.9C: snowmaiden

16.9C: S4lancia

16.9C: mk13

16.9C: Stu London

16.9C: Thundery wintry showers

16.9C: vizzy2004

16.9C: Geordiesnow

16.9C: Osbourne One-Nil

17.0C: Don

17.0C: iceberg

17.0C: summer blizzard

17.0C: Paul Carfoot

17.0C: Red Raven

17.1C: Anti - Mild

17.1C: JohnAcc

17.2C: Mr Data

17.2C: mark bayley

17.2C: HighPressure

17.3C: Tamara G

17.3C: Persian Paladin

17.3C: Duncan McAllister

17.3C: phil n.warks

17.3C: SNOW-MAN2006

17.4C: windswept

17.4C: David Snow

17.4C: Mark H

17.4C: Joneseye

17.4C: kold weather

17.4C: Mammatus

17.5C: sundog

17.5C: Norrance

17.5C: Somerset Squall

17.5C: WBSH

17.6C: eddie

17.6C: Great Plum

17.7C: Optimus Prime

17.7C: Calrissian

17.7C: Blast From the Past

17.7C: West is Best

17.7C: Stratos Ferric

17.7C: Glacier Point

17.8C: SteveB

17.8C: reef

17.9C: The PIT

17.9C: Ukmoose

17.9C: Rollo

17.9C: JACKONE

17.9C: Paul B

18.0C: Optimus Prime

18.1C: The Penguin

18.2C: magpie

18.3C: parmenides3

18.4C: Bessy

19.0C: Roger J Smith

20.0C: Craig Evans

22.0C: tinybill

Moose

[SP1986]

Manley - to 9th July (from www.climate.uk.com)

CET - 15.0

Hadley - to 8th July (hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html)

CET 15.3

NW Tracker to 10th July 6am (www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess)

CET 14.89C

Still looks like a temporary warm up around the 15th. How low does it go before then and how much can it recover?

I think its very possible it could recover. it'll be a close one but what we need is some high maxes this weekend at least in the southeast up to 26-27C (again not completely impossible but unlikely at this stage) After the warm up and subsequent cool down, we need a area of dry col or flabby low (mostly dry), with high night mins to recover it.

I think if this benchmark of a widespread 24C on Saturday and Sunday, and no less than 15C night mins for about 70% of the CET zone for a week or so afterwards, we can recover back to average - however there is a long time to go til the end of the month - how many time have we seen below average CET's looking like breaking the seal then at the end of the month they have been saved by a warm spell. In the balance at the moment.

[summer blizzard]

15.5C: Jim AFCB

15.6C: noggin

15.7C: Snowyowl9

15.8C: shuggee

15.9C: Beng

16.0C: fishdude

16.0C: ghrud

16.1C: Stephen Prudence

16.1C: VillagePlank

16.2C: Terminal Moraine

16.3C: Kentish Man

16.4C: DR Hosking

16.4C: cheeky monkey

16.4C: The underwriter

I'd pick those as faviourates at this current time.

[VillagePlank]

I'd pick those as faviourates at this current time.

You're my favourite, too. :lol:

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Since you can't be bothered to look at the first post of the thread Mr Nil, here's a faxcimile for you:

Excuse me, but I had to go off and cause offence somewhere else, and you also seem to want me to find the post where someone says what the CET currently stands at.

I rest my case.

[shuggee]

Yes - please move it off my foot now, I'm in pain. I apologise.

I'm only happy to reproduce the list as my punt is not a million miles out

[VillagePlank]

as my punt is not a million miles out

Forever the optimist?

[Bobby]

Mine is looking a bit optimistic at this stage. Still time though for a heatwave.

[Gavin P]

Yeah, the lower end ones look good at the moment. Wish I'd gone for about 15.8 now

[Stu_London]

Looking at the 12z output we have 2 or 3 mildish nights and 1 or 2 warm days (although only really warm in the south east and largely out of the CET zone) in the next week. Before and after it is below average.

I can see us getting to the 20th and still being stuck around the 15.5C mark which would make an above average month highly unlikely.

As of now I would say these are my probabilities for the month as a whole

15.0C or less - 5%

15.5C or less - 40%

16.0C or more - 40%

16.5C (AVERAGE) or more 25%

17.0C or more - 10%

17.5C or more - 2%

[Stratos Ferric]

Looking at the 12z output we have 2 or 3 mildish nights and 1 or 2 warm days (although only really warm in the south east and largely out of the CET zone) in the next week. Before and after it is below average.

I can see us getting to the 20th and still being stuck around the 15.5C mark which would make an above average month highly unlikely.

As of now I would say these are my probabilities for the month as a whole

15.0C or less - 5%

15.5C or less - 40%

16.0C or more - 40%

16.5C (AVERAGE) or more 25%

17.0C or more - 10%

17.5C or more - 2%

Call me a pedant but that's a 122% spread! I still wouldn't write off an above average month. Nowadays it's much easier to get big upside, and particularly so in summer, on any given day. At ten cumulative degrees down to date it only takes a couple of hot days (25-15) to wipe out the arrears. If we're still well down by the 20th then I'd be more inclined to agree with your assessment.

[Stu_London]

Call me a pedant but that's a 122% spread! I still wouldn't write off an above average month. Nowadays it's much easier to get big upside, and particularly so in summer, on any given day. At ten cumulative degrees down to date it only takes a couple of hot days (25-15) to wipe out the arrears. If we're still well down by the 20th then I'd be more inclined to agree with your assessment.

Look closely and you will see its is not a spread (A spread covers every eventuality)

I have a 40% probability up to 15.5C

And a 40% probabablility of 16.0C and over

The range not covered is 15.6C to 15.9C which is 20% by default.

Or course a big upside is indeed possible. Something like a 25C day (mean), which is probably as high as it could get, could add nearly a whole degree at this time of the month and even 0.4C or so in the last few days. The current pattern is taken into account in the probabilities however as I just can't see the jet moving far enough north to allow temps like that.

Anyway, here is today

Manley Jul01-Jul10 (thx P Eden's excellent climate.uk site)

CET - 14.9C - (-1.1C)

Hadley to 9th July (thx to Met Office)

CET - 15.2C

Net Weather Tracker to 11th July 5am

CET - 14.92

Looks like it may start to creep up from today and still uncertainties over where it will be by this time next week.

Edited July 11, 2007 by Stu_London

[noggin]

I'd pick those as faviourates at this current time.

Oh, look......I'm in there! B)

[shuggee]

Worth noting how N England and Scotland are above average. How the tide can turn!

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html