July CET

[Stratos Ferric]

...I still think we are going end up around the 17C mark, hints of the Azores becoming a little more able to move in should slowly allow a warm-up as the month goes along.

As the thermal equator continues to drift north it's certainly the case that it's difficult for the PF to stay as far south as it is doing. If it does do so I'd watch out for some more torrential rain storms.

Today was the first time in weeks on my flight up or down country that it was possible to see at least some of the ground. It's been exceptionally cloudy for the last few weeks.

[summer blizzard]

I think that the period 1st-10th, will record an average CET of 15.2C-15.4C, this is around 0.7C below average.

At present, the period 11th-20th looks like returing a near average CET, 16C-17C, so that the CET by the 20th is likely to be in the range of 16.1C-16.5C.

Afterwards, there is strong support for another cooldown however the last seven days of the month are unknown, however assuming the 11th-20th period is correct, then my likely range would be 15.7C-17C for the month as a whole.

Tried putting it into chart format but failed, perhaps Sratos Pherric could have better look.

[kold weather]

Looks like another week where we are going to record a below average CET. Looking quite possible right now we will see a warm-up after the 15th even if its not got much support from the ensembles, I believe if this happens then we could finally see maxes getting upto 25-27C and so the CET will take a rise but it all depends on whether this set-up will occur or not.

[West is Best]

given the first 10 days are going to record below average

I think you're jumping the gun a bit. It's not certain it will be below the Manley average - currently 0.5C below and I still reckon on 2 or 3 days upward nudge ahead.

As usual the GFS gets the temps wrong. Their 19C max for today is looking 'fragile' to say the least with 18C at 9.30am. Temps should be routinely in the 20's in the CET zone today, and 23C or more likely to be reached in some places, with a possible 25C tomorrow.

[kold weather]

GFS is once again 1-2C too low though I believe for the weekend

Maybe West, but it would have to rise 0.5C if thats where we are at now and while possible I think monday will probably prevent that from happening. I do agree about the GFS though, the above quote is what I said yesterday, may be more in the order of 2-3C in some places.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The Beeb boys and girls go for 21c today as the high in the SE with 19 in midlands with a 8-9 as lows tonight and 23c as high tomorrow......in the SE with 21 in the cet zone. I agre a rise is on but no 'real' progress. Hell of a long way to go to get to my mark!!

BFTP

[Stu_London]

I think it should rise over the next 3 days Stu ...

A drop of 0.1C for day 1 - warming up quite nicely today though

[summer blizzard]

Phillip Eden now has the current CET at 15.3C.

[West is Best]

A drop of 0.1C for day 1 - warming up quite nicely today though

Indeed. I'm quietly confident lol!

Nice to see temps already exceeding 20C in many places.

[summer blizzard]

Indeed. I'm quietly confident lol!

Nice to see temps already exceeding 20C in many places.

That maybe the case, but we are likely to see minima around 1C-2C below average, thus i thunk any change will be minimal.

[Stu_London]

From www.climate-uk.co.uk

1st to 7th July

CET - 15.3C (-0.6C)

EW Rain 26.5mm (205%)

EW Sun 29.4hr (65%)

From habobs.metoffice.com

1st to 6th July

CET - 15.4C (-0.1)

Net Weather Temp Tracker

1st to 8th July (10am)

CET - 14.99C

Looks like a rise is possible towards next weekend (60/40 based on latest ensembles) but not quick enough for West to win his bet with me!

[West is Best]

At present, the period 11th-20th looks like returing a near average CET, 16C-17C, so that the CET by the 20th is likely to be in the range of 16.1C-16.5C.

Afterwards, there is strong support for another cooldown however the last seven days of the month are unknown, however assuming the 11th-20th period is correct, then my likely range would be 15.7C-17C for the month as a whole.

What a difference 48 hours makes 'eh?

This heatwave is looking more odds on at the moment - in which case the CET will rise very fast indeed. A southerly draw from a static Euro high would be warm by day and night.

Just goes to show how things can change. We could go from shivering and miserable to sweltering in the space of a week. It is ever thus!

[Optimus Prime]

Well the cool night last night has dropped the minimum CET by quite some way. Provisional to the 8th it is 12.2c which is 1.1c above average.

Maximum provisional to the 7th is 18.2c which is 2.0c below average. I suspect after todays "average/warm" the CET will rise to 18.6c 1.6c below.

[The PIT]

Most of our nights recently have been cooler than those predicted. If and the big if, If this keeps up we'll end up cooler than June albeit a lot less wet.

[Stu_London]

Accoringing to my calculations the CET minimum was about 9C and the maximum 19C - an average of about 14C

That should pull us down to 15.1C or 15.2C to the 8th

Predictions for the next 7 days are

9th Min 9C Max 19C Mean 14C - In running 15.0C

10th Min 10C Max 20C Mean 15C - In running 15.0C

11th Min 9C Max 20C Mean 14.5C - In running 15.0C

12th Min 12C Max 19C Mean 15.5C - In running 15.0C

13th Min 10C Max 22C Mean 16.0C - In running 15.1C

14th Min 14C Max 25C Mean 19.5C - In running 15.4C

15th Min 18C Max 25C Mean 21.5C - In running 15.8C

If the hotspell is as shortlived as the models are suggesting then we will still be below average when it has been and gone, meaning another above average spell will be required to get to average.

At this stage I would offer only a 40% chance of an above average month.

[damianslaw]

Accoringing to my calculations the CET minimum was about 9C and the maximum 19C - an average of about 14C

That should pull us down to 15.1C or 15.2C to the 8th

Predictions for the next 7 days are

9th Min 9C Max 19C Mean 14C - In running 15.0C

10th Min 10C Max 20C Mean 15C - In running 15.0C

11th Min 9C Max 20C Mean 14.5C - In running 15.0C

12th Min 12C Max 19C Mean 15.5C - In running 15.0C

13th Min 10C Max 22C Mean 16.0C - In running 15.1C

14th Min 14C Max 25C Mean 19.5C - In running 15.4C

15th Min 18C Max 25C Mean 21.5C - In running 15.8C

If the hotspell is as shortlived as the models are suggesting then we will still be below average when it has been and gone, meaning another above average spell will be required to get to average.

Yes agree with your last point there. I am still holding out that a 3-4 very warm spell will occur sometime after the 15th and before the 2oth but after that a cool down again.

At this stage I would offer only a 40% chance of an above average month.

[Polar Continental]

The mean temperature hasn't really moved here in Burton, according to my readings, still 15.5c, –1c below average, despite achieving 20c on two consecutive days.

This is mostly due to the cooler nights now, was down to 7.8c last night.

Paul

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

.

This is mostly due to the cooler nights now, was down to 7.8c last night.

Paul

Classic signature of the cooler waters around the UK.

[Stu_London]

Classic signature of the cooler waters around the UK.

Next three nights should be single figure minimas in many places, before TM air moves in.

If the sea temp profile is the same in August, a bigger impact on minima can be expected as the nights get longer, assuming the air source is Maritime or all points north of.

[reef]

The effects of the lower minima are starting to be noted. At present Phillip Eden has the CET at 15.1°C, a drop of 0.2°C. To reach the 1971-2000 average, the rest of the month must now have a mean of exactly 17.0°C.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

[West is Best]

Indeed. I'm quietly confident lol!

Well, got that right. Cough :lol:

I'd certainly caution however before writing off this month as going below average. We're in for a warm up from mid-week onwards, and as that's barely 1/3rd the way through the month I'd say it's odd's on we'll end up 16C+.

[Anti-Mild]

Well, got that right. Cough :lol:

I'd certainly caution however before writing off this month as going below average. We're in for a warm up from mid-week onwards, and as that's barely 1/3rd the way through the month I'd say it's odd's on we'll end up 16C+.

It's a rare occasion, but I agree with you Richard! I believe (hope) that the end of this week will see some pretty high temps, hopefully up into the high 20's which ought to bring the CET up to around 16c and if the remainder of the month is average then obviously the final reckoning should be around average, give or take 0.3c.

So although my punt was 17.1c I'm going to suggest a final CET of between 16.2c and 16.8c although I reckon it'll be on the lower side of that range.

[Stu_London]

Well, got that right. Cough :lol:

I'd certainly caution however before writing off this month as going below average. We're in for a warm up from mid-week onwards, and as that's barely 1/3rd the way through the month I'd say it's odd's on we'll end up 16C+.

Last night seems to have been even colder than the night before in the CET zone and today wont be as warm as yesterday :o

Therefore it another 0.2 drop could be on the cards for tomorrow and another 0.1 drop for the day after leaving us at 14.8C. A bit of a warm up looks likely but nothing on the scale of what the models were suggesting yesterday though and I think we will struggle to add 0.5C by this time next week before things look like getting cooler again.

Obviously I don't know what is going to happen later in the month yet (but ensembles say below average), but would now say above average (16.5C) is less than 30% and 16C is only about 60% certain.

Edited July 9, 2007 by Stu_London

[kold weather]

Problem is Anti-mild the models really aren't showing temps getting upto the high 20's anymore, all three models suggest maxes probably being rather close to this weekend's figures. It probably will make a slow rise past Wednesday as the mins look likely to increase again.

Still unless the last 10 days sees a major shift in the set-up I can't see us getting good enough synoptics to get above average, this has a good shot at being below average.

I reckon we will probably see a CET around 16C as well, thats pretty much what the synoptic set-up would suggest, maybe a touch lower. A fair chance of ending our run of above average, though I suggest we shouldn't be too confident yet simply because of the age we are living.

Edited July 9, 2007 by kold weather

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Problem is Anti-mild the models really aren't showing temps getting upto the high 20's anymore, all three models suggest maxes probably being rather close to this weekend's figures. It probably will make a slow rise past Wednesday as the mins look likely to increase again.

Still unless the last 10 days sees a major shift in the set-up I can't see us getting good enough synoptics to get above average, this has a good shot at being below average.

I reckon we will probably see a CET around 16C as well, thats pretty much what the synoptic set-up would suggest, maybe a touch lower. A fair chance of ending our run of above average, though I suggest we shouldn't be too confident yet simply because of the age we are living.

Indeed Alex Deakin reckons 20-21c for the rest of the week.

BFTP