July CET

[Stu_London]

Manley to July 4th

CET - 15.4C (-0.3C)

Rainfall - 22.2m (304%)

Sun - 16.2hr (63%)

Hadley to July 3rd

CET - 16.0C

NW Tracker to 6am, July 5th

CET - 15.18C

Temps have held up well under TM influence overnight (widely 13-14C). Therefore expect a small rise for today.

[VillagePlank]

It would be flawed inductive logic. I didn't say the odds were the same, just that neither was very likely. Like I always say, I pick my words carefully, hopefully to be read carefully too.

I was messing around Inductive logic? Isn't that something to do with copper wires ...

[West is Best]

Manley to July 4th

CET - 15.4C (-0.3C)

Hadley to July 3rd

Temps have held up well under TM influence overnight (widely 13-14C). Therefore expect a small rise for today.

I'm pretty sure the CET will be above average by the end of the weekend then. The Manley breakdown shows the maxima 2.2C below average, and the minima 1.6C above average. You're right about the minima - same old story there.

[VillagePlank]

The continued cyclogenesis off Newfoundland is remarkable ...

Indeed it is! It's almost like autumn has arrived two months early. Presumably the lower jet, in terms of latitude, contribute to creating the space for such activities to occur?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There's a lot of truth in your first sentence Fred and I agree. I wonder if we should have more on global temps on NW - and I mean by that not just the worthy reports from the likes of Carinthian, but some really detailed actual measurements (surface and air) akin to what we have on SSTs. It seems to me to be a slight weak link in the whole teleconnection chain. I and others have suggested that what we see in the CET is an outturn of what we are seeing globally. But I do agree with you in many ways, and there's a lot of flabbiness in the arguments, and lack of proof.

In fact, one of my bugbears right now is that whenever some sort of wild weather occurs it's immediately attributed to climate change, as if we've never had freak weather before. Ultimately if GW is occuring (as I believe) it does the cause of raising the issue no good at all to have such carefless and unscientific ideas bandied around. We need more proof, for which we need facts.

KW - Interesting to see your thoughts. We'll see how it pans out, but at the moment I do think we're going to be close to the flow of 2002 by the time this month is through. It's a very interesting month this one in lots of ways.

Yeah I concur to that Richard.....all of it

BFTP

[Stu_London]

I'm pretty sure the CET will be above average by the end of the weekend then. The Manley breakdown shows the maxima 2.2C below average, and the minima 1.6C above average. You're right about the minima - same old story there.

Depends

There is still a suggestion of single figure minimas in the CET zone for Sunday am. Whether or not they happen, we will see, GFS min/max temps are not the most reliable as we all know.

I think it will rise slightly today and then maybe start to fall.

We need to lose the 17/18C maximas in the zone before any proper rise and they look like hanging on for a while yet.

[West is Best]

We need to lose the 17/18C maximas in the zone before any proper rise and they look like hanging on for a while yet.

Ya. Although there may be some in that area though, I'm pretty sure generally the CET maxima over the weekend will be quite high. Into the 70's in old money. It's actually going to be a lovely weekend for the Midlands southwards.

[TEITS]

We need to lose the 17/18C maximas in the zone before any proper rise and they look like hanging on for a while yet.

We certainly do.

Generally speaking it looks as though this weekend may see the odd 21C 70F but for a majority around 18-20C seems about right. Early next week these max temps could drop on Mon/Tues to around 16/17C before warming up again towards the end of next week to around 20C.

Very disappointing TBH especially as the average max for my region is 22C and I still haven't seen above 24C this year!.

[Stratos Ferric]

Indeed it is! It's almost like autumn has arrived two months early. Presumably the lower jet, in terms of latitude, contribute to creating the space for such activities to occur?

I'd usually suspect the other way around with SSTs, though the cause-effect is complicated. The flow across the Atlantic is pretty much always W-E, so variation in SST given more or less consistent macro scale flow rather suggests that it's just variation in sub-surface currents causing the change. It might also just be a reflection of increased run-off (and sink) from melting polar ice. The flows are suitably slow that it can take months and years for things to evolve in the NA.

There's certainly a case to be made, the longer that this persists, for a more interesting winter ahead, but nothing is for ever in weather. What we do have, it seems, is slightly more tendency to bounce between extremes at present. An exceptionally dry warm April is now a distant memory. June and July being wet and cool (by very recent standards) might be an argument for prolonged cool going forwards; equally, it makes an argument for a warm / dry August / September.

[Glacier Point]

What we do have, it seems, is slightly more tendency to bounce between extremes at present. An exceptionally dry warm April is now a distant memory. June and July being wet and cool (by very recent standards) might be an argument for prolonged cool going forwards; equally, it makes an argument for a warm / dry August / September.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ent.ascii.table

There is one climatic index which is reflecting this volatility. A very strongly -ve June AO is likely once all the data is in. This follows last December's all time record +ve, June 2006, which was the second most +ve June AO and third most +ve AO Summer month on record. July has started off on a very -ve note, with every possibility that another index value might be broken (target -0.927).

Rarely do we see a neutral AO month these days, and it does seem that the largest climatic surface temperature anomalies are impacting on the modality of the AO. The relationship is open to debate, but polar height anomalies IMO continue to be the most significant driving factor for our mid latitude weather patterns and in particular, the most likely explanation for extreme monthly variations.

Edited July 6, 2007 by Glacier Point

[Stu_London]

Manley - Jul 01 -Jul 05

CET - 15.4C (-0.4C)

EW Rain - 26.8mm (291%)

EW Sun - 19.1hr (59%)

Hadley - Jul 01 - Jul 04

CET - 15.6C (+0.2C)

NW Tracker - Jul 01 - Jul 06 (8am)

CET - 15.1C

Nothing in the models to suggest a rise in the CET soon. Those who bet below average to average are looking most likely to profit so far.

[West is Best]

Nothing in the models to suggest a rise in the CET soon.

I think it should rise over the next 3 days Stu ...

[charlton north-downs]

The Weather, dont you just love it . Last year at this time, Bewl Water was 65% full, now its 100% and it will take something of a major drought to affect that. Nature once again does its balancing act. Who knows, a couple of major volcano eruptions and even the temperature might balance out again and those sun spots work in our favour. The temps may improve over the next few days, but a few clear nights could bring the CET down . My prediction 15.6 July CET :o

[shuggee]

Manley - Jul 01 -Jul 05

CET - 15.4C (-0.4C)

EW Rain - 26.8mm (291%)

EW Sun - 19.1hr (59%)

Hadley - Jul 01 - Jul 04

CET - 15.6C (+0.2C)

NW Tracker - Jul 01 - Jul 06 (8am)

CET - 15.1C

Nothing in the models to suggest a rise in the CET soon. Those who bet below average to average are looking most likely to profit so far.

Hi Stu - can you pop a link in from the source of the figures - so we don't infringe anyone's rights and recognise others' hard work :o

[Weather-history]

The last 15 days (last 10 days of June and first 5 days of July) have been below average, CETwise.

[West is Best]

The last 15 days (last 10 days of June and first 5 days of July) have been below average, CETwise.

But not the minima I believe Kevin? This month they are once again running 1.5C above average, only offset by the atrocious maxima.

[Weather-history]

But not the minima I believe Kevin? This month they are once again running 1.5C above average, only offset by the atrocious maxima.

Which shows how bad the maxima are and its the maxima thats more important during the summer.

[West is Best]

Which shows how bad the maxima are and its the maxima thats more important during the summer.

Yes that's very true in terms of summer perception, although not from a statistical perspective.

Don't get me wrong: the weather has turned truly atrocious. It just makes the high minima and absence of below average CET even more peculiar to my mind. Manley is still only just about below, and likely to finish this weekend about average ... and June was, as we know, well above average. Ludicrous weather.

Any chance of the dullest summer on record?!

[Stu_London]

I think it should rise over the next 3 days Stu ...

I expect minima to widely be around the 11C mark for tonight and the 9C for the next two nights

That means a average max in the CET zone of 20C will be needed tomorrow and 22C for the next two days just to stay where we are.

In isolated parts perhaps, but not widespread. Therefore I anticipate a small drop in the next three days - to maybe 15.2C - but we shall see.

[TEITS]

Yes that's very true in terms of summer perception, although not from a statistical perspective.

Don't get me wrong: the weather has turned truly atrocious. It just makes the high minima and absence of below average CET even more peculiar to my mind. Manley is still only just about below, and likely to finish this weekend about average ... and June was, as we know, well above average. Ludicrous weather.

Any chance of the dullest summer on record?!

What do you find peculiar WIB?.

Reason I ask is in my mind it is very simple.

The unsettled pattern we have been seeing has restricted max temps but min temps have been much higher due to the cloud cover. As an example last night we never dropped below 13C here in Peterborough and yet yesterdays max temp was only 18C.

The effects of cloud cover affecting the CET can be clearly seen during an anticyclonic period during November when min temps can drop very low thus restricting the following days max temps. A mobile unsettled pattern during November would give a much higher CET recording than an anticyclonic month.

[West is Best]

In isolated parts perhaps, but not widespread. Therefore I anticipate a small drop in the next three days - to maybe 15.2C - but we shall see.

Great - we have a bet on Stu! I reckon it'll nudge up by Monday (Manley and Hadley).

As for the Eye, I refer you to my previous posts.

[Polar Continental]

Afternoon everyone,

IMO things are beginning to get slightly interesting now, we are in to the first week of July and we are on course for a below average CET, my mean is currently running at 15.5c –1c below the CET average. With this continued weather pattern, it was only going to be a matter of time before the temperature would begin to tail off.

Yes currently night time minimums are still running above average, to me this is not surprising, as the TEITS mentioned the nights have been consistently overcast and damp, trapping any warmth that has built during the day, if we start seeing clear conditions over night, then the minimums are going to fall off quickly as well.

June was a classic example of this, almost constantly cloudy over night throughout, but the moment the sky cleared the temperature fell sharply, a good example was here on the night of the 28th June, which gave an air temperature of 4.3c and a grass minimum of –0.5c with a ground frost.

Something else which I am finding interesting currently are the SST, very large -ve anomalies to the SW now, these lower sea temperatures are ultimately going to knock the warming edge off the of south westerlies here, so if this synoptic pattern continues I can’t see the CET responding positively.

Paul

Edited July 6, 2007 by Paul Carfoot

[kold weather]

Can't see maxes being high enough to do it West really, GFS is once again 1-2C too low though I believe for the weekend however so I don't expect any drop to be that noteable, maybe down to 15.3C I'd guess. If there wil lbe a drop of any magnitude it'll be between Sunday-Tuesday. After that a very slow recovery looks probable.

I still think we are going end up around the 17C mark, hints of the Azores becoming a little more able to move in should slowly allow a warm-up as the month goes along.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I still think we are going end up around the 17C mark, hints of the Azores becoming a little more able to move in should slowly allow a warm-up as the month goes along.

A heatwave doesn't look likely though, does it? Maybe three days max at 25C+ mid-month but then returning to fresher weather.

I have a feeling those with CET predictions above 17C may wish they had given more consideration to the SSTA situation which will result in the CET being lower than expected given the air mass.

the water temp anomalies around Britain gone-1/-2C over the last month.

Edited July 6, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[kold weather]

I wouldn't pay to omuch attention to those SSTA near Britain, they are shallow waters and thus can change shockingly fast given the right set-up. I see that a lot in the gulf of Mexico before hurricane seasons, it can be running 3-5C below average, a month later having a better set-up and its 1-2C above again, shallow water therefore can change very fast. They may help take the edge of the temps but if you get a strong SW flow it really won't matter too much.

My CET punt I believe was 17.1C. We are likely to record a 10 day below average CET but after that I think a slow correction towards slightly below average is possible by the 20th. I could well be wrong on that one mind you but its my ideas. What I will say is that the chances of a CET above 17.5C is already looking quite unlikely even if we do see a correction after the 10th. The set-up right now progged suggests about 16C and that probably is going to be the closest to the mark I reckon, I just have a sneaky feeling that the mins may well return to well above average figures by the 15th.

Range IMO is between 15-17.5 right now. It would take a pretty decent heatwave to get above that given the first 10 days are going to record below average, possible but models don't really suggest that.

Edited July 6, 2007 by kold weather