Summers going to be bad?

[Mark Bayley]

This is proberly going to get deleted but why do people keep saying summers over or this is going to be a write off whenwere only two weeks into it. I always though that the warm months with all the heatwaves was middle of july into august thaough i might be wrong! I think people should leavr it to the middle of july before saying that this summer is going to be a write off. Theres alway september as well wich is good.

[Mark Bayley]

I was going to ask the qustion in the modle discusion were they all seem to be arguing about it but i didn't want to go off topic

[summer blizzard]

It depends how you consider the most important factors of summer, i personally go for sunshine, temperature and then rainfall, in which case, this summer is not doing so well thus far.

In recards to us only being half way through June, that is already 1/6 of the summer gone.

[Guest Viking141]

Certainly pretty poor up here! Seems to be getting colder as we go through the year. April up here was above avg, May just avg (with an increase in ground frosts) and June sof far has been very chilly and looks like being below avg. Reminds me of summer 95 which was pretty poor, hope we get a winter like 95 to follow!

[Snowyowl9]

Hope to see this sometime this summer which does happen year with HP closeby or over us in July but for 3 weeks or so.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...ea001198304.gif

[mushymanrob]

please...... NO ONE HAS EVER SAID 'SUMMER IS OVER'.. except the people who are habitually mis-quoting others .

I on the other hand have said that MAYBE things dont look as good as they did earlier in the year..

patterns.... its all about synoptic patterns, and as we approach mid month theres no sign of a pattern change that will deliver more normal summer conditions. true, the messy synoptics of late has favoured some, others though have suffered persistent cloud. this isnt normal summer weather.

so with nothing at the moment showing for june, thats a third of the summer gone.

theres nothing to suggest that the messy synoptic pattern will change although fi for weeks has been suggesting it, it never becomes reality. so will things change for july?.... maybe... the truth is that we just dont know.

august 2005 and 2006 were poor, IF august 2007 follows suit then theres precious little time or scope for 'real' summer to start.

of course we are living in a time of global warming so i dont think anybody expects cold weather.... but cloudy, wet, most probably, sunny hot?... could be!

it all depends upon what you call 'summer weather' really. to me a normal summer would be one of a recuring around 3 weeks swesterly followed by a week or so of settled hot sunny weather ending in a thundery breakdown... THAT to me is a 'summer'. anything extra in the heat/sun department is a bonus!

[Guest Mike W]

We are just over half way through June and the CET is 2.6 degrees above the average! Sunshine is 91% with 86.2 hours, that's alot of sunshine. Just 2 weeks left of June, temperature actually look to be staying slightly above average , certainly for Bristol asnd other places that are int he CET zone. I have noticed how much more quckly and easily it can go to above to well above average temperatures in recent years aswell, where as now we need evry thing their is and then some to just get average temps for about a couple of days at the most.

Edited June 16, 2007 by Mike W

[The PIT]

I think people have got used to thinking last year is the norm. It isn't. This June is amazing no massive high temps and it's so far above normal you think eh really. No doubt due to the high mins or is it really??

[J10]

A definite split as well, South Western parts had a very good first week of June, and missed most of the rain this week as well, whereas other parts it's been a bit of a washout so far.

[The PIT]

A definite split as well, South Western parts had a very good first week of June, and missed most of the rain this week as well, whereas other parts it's been a bit of a washout so far.

We've had nine days of no measurable rain so far today should make it ten. Out of the six days it's rained one had 0.8mm and the 0.1mm. Three of the four days gave us an impressive 124.1mm of rain. So Day wise it hasn't been a washout.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think this June tells us much about the rest of the summer- July and August might be completely different. Anyway, as Julian above says, there has been a pronounced split, and as Mushy says, it depends on how you define 'real summer'.

In general my opinion of a summer is strongly correlated with how much sunshine there is, and by that measure, it's been abysmal so far in the North East but there is still time for that to change.

Surprising that summer '95 was poor in Shetland; that certainly wasn't the case further south, indeed here in the North East we haven't had a sunnier summer since, although those of 2003 and 2006 were warmer due to higher average minima.

[ribster]

In recards to us only being half way through June, that is already 1/6 of the summer gone.

Hilarious

Does all depend on your own perspective, but it has been remarkably wet so far, and would'nt be in the least surprised if there's plenty more wet to come, and very few sustained hot spells.

[summer blizzard]

I don't think this June tells us much about the rest of the summer- July and August might be completely different. Anyway, as Julian above says, there has been a pronounced split, and as Mushy says, it depends on how you define 'real summer'.

In general my opinion of a summer is strongly correlated with how much sunshine there is, and by that measure, it's been abysmal so far in the North East but there is still time for that to change.

Surprising that summer '95 was poor in Shetland; that certainly wasn't the case further south, indeed here in the North East we haven't had a sunnier summer since, although those of 2003 and 2006 were warmer due to higher average minima.

Yes, at my location, we have only had around 5 sun days as i would call them (sunny periods of at least an hour between 11-3), which gives June thus far 1/10, though the temperature gives this another 2/10, so i would rate June so far at 3/10 however given non stop rainfall in recent days, i am deducting another 1/10, meaning that my rating for June so far is 2/10, and highly doubt that June will reach its potential 7/10.

[Geordiesnow]

I agree with you Mark we have still got a few more months of heat left, before we are looking for cooler conditions. So far this June its been an East/West split in terms of sunshine and temperture so if i was in the West i would be saying so far Summer is acting as the name suggests but has i am in the East its been more Autumanal but without the wind. I guess it will keep the SST down so i guess that could be good news for the coming winter instead of rely on Oct, Nov and Dec to gives us the cooler conditions. But of corse pleanty time for change.

[mushymanrob]

Yes, at my location, we have only had around 5 sun days as i would call them (sunny periods of at least an hour between 11-3), which gives June thus far 1/10, though the temperature gives this another 2/10, so i would rate June so far at 3/10 however given non stop rainfall in recent days, i am deducting another 1/10, meaning that my rating for June so far is 2/10, and highly doubt that June will reach its potential 7/10.

thats a useful index, i hope others see it and take on board just how dissapointing june has been... for some, given that gw should make summers better!

[Zenarcher]

To me summer isnt over its just starting. Between 25th of june to the end of september is summer to me. Because this is when i seem to get the best weather.

[mushymanrob]

To me summer isnt over its just starting. Between 25th of june to the end of september is summer to me. Because this is when i seem to get the best weather.

happen so, but metereologically it isnt summer in september!

[Zenarcher]

happen so, but metereologically it isnt summer in september!

It is here sunny dry warm weird

[Bobby]

There is nearly 2 and a half months of summer left, we can't forecast that far ahead, so we don't know what will happen. It could well be sorching for the rest of the summer. So, no, we don't know if summer will be good or bad. Ask that question in August perhaps if it's been terrible up til then but it's utterly premature now.

[mushymanrob]

There is nearly 2 and a half months of summer left, we can't forecast that far ahead, so we don't know what will happen. It could well be sorching for the rest of the summer. So, no, we don't know if summer will be good or bad. Ask that question in August perhaps if it's been terrible up til then but it's utterly premature now.

in fairness the question was asked asking for our opinions and not for a definitive answer which of course as you say couldnt be given. i think theres plenty on here with enough experience to take an educated guess, but thats all it would be, a guess.

[snowingman]

First 10 days were magical!!, sun and heat.. highly unusual for us Northern Irish crowds.. then

Rain - 4 inches (as recorded by my wheelbarrow)

Sun - None for the last 6 days... not even a glimpse of blue sky

Cold - average maximum temperature was 12C, average 10C

So for the summer... it must improve

[Weather-history]

Sunshine is 91% with 86.2 hours, that's alot of sunshine.

Your logic escapes me here. How can you say its a lot of sunshine when its below the expected average?

[Iceberg]

I really don't understand even the hard done by easterners.

No area of the UK had a below average temp for the first half of the month (in my books you have to give temp at least a 5/10).

Yes there has been an east west split with sunshine but up until the 10th the UK as a whole had more than average sunshine.

For me personally it's been a very good June with parties and BBQ's outside, lots of gardening etc. It's the not the same for everyone though, so overall I'd say it's been pretty average.

Those complaining need to look at the bigger picture IMO and stop imposing there own indervidual experiences constantly on everyone else.

[Thundery wintry showers]

But as Mr Data said on another thread, temperature is not the only factor in how good a summer is- there's sunshine, rainfall and various others to take into account.

For example, Junes like those of 1975, 1989 and 1996 were very popular with most of the population, despite the fact that the CET was only around 14.5 in each case. Instead, they were popular because they were generally sunny and dry, and for those weather enthusiasts who like variety, there was a decent amount of that as well.

Compare and contrast June 1982, which is generally regarded as a poor month despite having CET well above 15C.

I agree that those of us who have had an abysmal month in the North East shouldn't be projecting our view of the world on everyone else, but I personally have tried to avoid doing that- I reckon, for instance, that if I'd been living in Ireland, or south-west England, my opinion of the month so far would have been positive.

[Snowyowl9]

But as Mr Data said on another thread, temperature is not the only factor in how good a summer is- there's sunshine, rainfall and various others to take into account.

Compare and contrast June 1982, which is generally regarded as a poor month despite having CET well above 15C.

Very true it`s not the temp that counts so much in summer but how wet or dull it is.

As for here the first 10 days of June have been very warm and with lots of sun with temps of 20 odd average,it went downhill very quick as over 3.5inches of rain came end of last week which the ground is saturated after been dry and starting to burn.

Next week looks even worse with rain starting tonight as last week it broke down last Wednesday with a heavy shower.

So west has been best for sunshine and warmer temps with an east wind.

But this June could rival 1982 in local parts for the amount of rain never seen the river`s so full for June before.

It just reached 10c in the NE on this day similar set-up to now with the jet gone AWOL except it`s not as far south as then, and nothing like as month for thunderstorms to then which some were severe.

If this N-ly comes after which looks likely this month willl be remembered for some time by me.