The 13th of June enigma

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's looking "touch and go" as to whether it survives this year.  The last few ECMWF operational runs have been building a pool of hot air over south-eastern Britain, which is evident at the 500hPa level as well as 850hPa:

850hPa temperatures are forecast to be 13-14C over the south on 13 June, so we could sneak a 30 or 31C out of that I reckon.  This is also supported by the latest GFS run which has 850hPa temps rather less high (11-12C) and predicts max 2m temps of 28C in the south-east.

 

Edited June 8, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[A Face like Thunder]

Yes, Matt Taylor was talking of 'something approaching 30C at the weekend'. 

[Weather-history]

 

 

[Timmytour]

I personally hope it survives.....and a few of the latest model runs maybe suggest that enough cloud will persist to keep the max on the day off its own record let alone 30C!

I'm all for quirky records......if it gets to 30C on 30th june then I reckon 50% of the entrants for the December CET comp will be going for 5.9C

 

 

[Derecho]

Looking like a close call! I think 29C for London so we will fall just short. Saturday now looking a touch cooler also.

[Weather-history]

On 09/06/2021 at 07:07, Weather-history said:

 

 

or maybe not.  Feels like there has been a slight trend away from it happening at the moment.

Edited June 10, 2021 by Weather-history

[Thundery wintry showers]

To me, the most amusing outcome would be if we get an official highest max for 13 June 2021 in the range of 29.7 to 29.9C, such that the quirky stat survives but only by the slenderest of margins.  It's a possibility.

[SummerShower]

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

To me, the most amusing outcome would be if we get an official highest max for 13 June 2021 in the range of 29.7 to 29.9C, such that the quirky stat survives but only by the slenderest of margins.  It's a possibility.

I can see that happening!  29c at Heathrow or Northolt, somewhere like that.  It would still be a date record though if it gets above 28.3.

[Alexis]

Watch it reach 29.9 at Kew! 

[Weather-history]

 

[Mapantz]

Part of me wants it to survive, otherwise we can't keep discussing it. 

[SummerShower]

Whats the betting that it hits 28.3 somewhere tomorrow?  Would make it the 4th year to reach, but not exceed that figure..

[Guest]

Well 850s at 12C over the London area so a max temp of 29-29.5C look likely to me having said that Heathrow of to a perfect start and already 18C. 

[A Face like Thunder]

Any updates?

[DAVID SNOW]

15 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Any updates?

Safe for another year, it goes on...

[East Lancs Rain]

On 09/06/2021 at 13:05, Timmytour said:

I personally hope it survives.....and a few of the latest model runs maybe suggest that enough cloud will persist to keep the max on the day off its own record let alone 30C!

I'm all for quirky records......if it gets to 30C on 30th june then I reckon 50% of the entrants for the December CET comp will be going for 5.9C

 

 

Why’s that?

[East Lancs Rain]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Safe for another year, it goes on...

Wonder if we’ll still be discussing this in 30 years time! What was the highest temp today btw?

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Wonder if we’ll still be discussing this in 30 years time! What was the highest temp today btw?

I'll be sitting on a cloud by then, cumulus preferably.

Don't think any official stations got to 29C today, someone will come along with an exact maximum i'm sure.

[Roger J Smith]

He said that about December because it's an anomaly that the CET has never hit 5.9 which is the closest to any monthly average that has a missing value.

But you may have known that and were questioning why the 30th of June ... that's obviously a mis-speak for 13th of June, I would say. He figures that if the 13th of June enigma falls, then it's an omen for the December anomaly to fall as well. 

If it ever does fall, then the next one in line would be the missing 16.3 for June which has some chance of going soon.

I just updated the full list of these "missing CET values closest to the median" in my historical CET thread in this sub-forum. 

[Stargazer]

The Netweather top 20 page shows Staverton as the warmest today at 28°C and Heathrow topping out at 27.8. I'd say there's a chance that a late-reporting station could have exceeded the date record of 28.3, but 30 looks safe for another year. The anomaly continues...

Edited June 13, 2021 by Stargazer

[Weather-history]

It looked  a goner the other day but in the end, even the date record looks as though it has held out

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Thanks Weather-history. In a way, I'm pleased as we will have something to talk about, other than rain and pestilence, this time next year!

[Timmytour]

Astonishing that it didn't even set a record for the day.  Being out in it certainly gave the impression that it would have broken the 30C barrier. 

[Methuselah]

36 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Astonishing that it didn't even set a record for the day.  Being out in it certainly gave the impression that it would have broken the 30C barrier. 

Kudos to @Alderc -- for predicting precisely that!

[Timmytour]

On 13/06/2021 at 20:13, East Lancs Rain said:

Why’s that?

Yep, as RJS pointed out that was a confusion of 30 with 13 on my part!   Apologies