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June 7th - HIGH RISK


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    June 7th sees my 2nd HIGH Risk of the year and we are going to take a Massive Gamble on blowing off the HIGH Risk and not even going for the Moderate Risk, we are going to go for the South East Kansas and Oklahoma Slight Risk, we have a contact in the National Weather Service who has also verified what we are seeing on the Models and has said Oklahoma if it fires could be explosive today, High Temps and big dewpoints with a trailing cold front is our play for my final day. NAM & F5 Data show this area with significant Tornado Parameters at 6-9pm today.

    Wish us luck for our 700-800 mile drive today

    Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
    June 7th sees my 2nd HIGH Risk of the year and we are going to take a Massive Gamble on blowing off the HIGH Risk and not even going for the Moderate Risk, we are going to go for the South East Kansas and Oklahoma Slight Risk, we have a contact in the National Weather Service who has also verified what we are seeing on the Models and has said Oklahoma if it fires could be explosive today, High Temps and big dewpoints with a trailing cold front is our play for my final day. NAM & F5 Data show this area with significant Tornado Parameters at 6-9pm today.

    Wish us luck for our 700-800 mile drive today

    Paul Sherman

    Good luck and safe driving!

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    Seems like a good plan Paul. That high risk area has HP cells written all over it. As you say, it is a risk but that's all part of the fun..

    Long run.. Hope it's worth it.. :lol:

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Good news for Paul and Tony, SPC's 16.30 update extends the MDT risk area across SE Kansas down into Oklahoma! So not a bad decision to target this area, seems that great minds (SPC and Paul/Tony) think alike:

    post-1052-1181235765_thumb.png

    10% Tornado threat included over Paul and Tony's target area too:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/a...70607_1630.html

    ...WRN MO/SE KS INTO OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

    A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NRN AZ WILL TRANSLATE EWD TODAY

    THEN ENEWD OVER SRN KS BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE REMNANT DRYLINE WILL

    LIKELY STALL THIS EVENING FROM SE KS INTO CENTRAL OK AFTER MIXING

    PEAKS AND THIS SPEED MAX APPROACHES FROM THE W.

    MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S IN

    THE MOIST SECTOR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 70-73 F WILL

    RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG/ E OF

    THE DRYLINE. THE PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT

    OUN/FWD/SGF WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE COOLER AIR IN THE 850-600 MB

    LAYER AT AMA/DDC PROGRESSES EWD BY THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE

    INITIATION BECOMING MORE PROBABLE FROM ABOUT 22-01Z.

    THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL

    SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL

    AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO

    EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE

    INTO AN MCS ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

    WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Excellent choice, not only closer to where you need to be tomorrow evening but you will

    be chasing in 'familiar terrain' ..

    Recent visible satellite image.

    < Previous MD Next MD > mcd1038.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 071816Z - 072015Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FROM PARTS OF ERN AND NERN KS THROUGH PARTS OF WRN AND NRN MO. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG HYBRID DRYLINE-PACIFIC FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH NWRN MO AND ERN KS. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL WARM AIR WITH -5 TO -6 C/KM AT 500 MB HAS BEEN ADVECTING NEWD ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET CORE. WHILE THIS WILL NOT INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL LIMIT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO GENERALLY AOB 7 C/KM IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG 50 TO 60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WARM AIR ALOFT...INITIAL UPDRAFTS MAY BE STRONGLY TILTED AND STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Already seems to be cell activation along the dry line just East of Topeka, KS - expect this to extend further South later.

    post-1052-1181242993_thumb.pngpost-1052-1181243011_thumb.png

    Some good kinematic parameters over E/SE Kansas too this afternoon, some strong 0-6km shear and 0-1km rel. helicity and shear currently in place looking at SPC hourly meso analysis:

    post-1052-1181243208_thumb.png-0-6km shear

    post-1052-1181243238_thumb.png- 0-1km storm rel. helicity

    post-1052-1181243284_thumb.png - 0-1km shear

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    latest radar from NOAA shows a line from Emporia to Waterloo within the tornado warning 359 area

    ww0359_radar_big.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Yes, not sure where Paul and Co are now, but an interesting area right now for tail-end development along dry-line currently S and SE of Topeka, KS:

    TWX_loop.gif

    Satellite shows developing cu at the SW end of squall line:

    20070607_2032_ICT_vis.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    hey Nick. that line is certainly giving some potential according to the NOAA warnings. Paul is probably still on the road so we may hear from him if he has a break.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Looks like convection is going to kick-off soon over SE Kansas and also further South over Ern OKlahoma. Possiblity of a tornado watch.

    post-1052-1181250228_thumb.png

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0327 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

    AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/ERN AND CNTRL OK/FAR NCNTRL TX

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 072027Z - 072200Z

    RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHALLOW CU SLOWLY INCREASING IN

    COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE

    OVER SERN KS TO FAR NCNTRL TX. ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE

    AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER

    90S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OBJECTIVE

    SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG IN SERN KS TO

    6000 J/KG NEAR THE RED RIVER.

    CAP HAS STEADILY DECREASED THROUGH THE DAY PER COOLING OBSERVED IN

    THE 700 TO 850 MB LAYER ON 18 UTC OUN RAOB. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES

    REMAIN WARM /-6C 500 MB/ AND MAY INITIALLY DELAY ONSET OF DEEP

    CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER

    CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME WARM MIDLEVELS. SURFACE WINDS

    HAVE MAINTAINED A WEST..SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR

    IS PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR SPITING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING

    WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

    DESPITE THE LESS THAN IDEAL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...CONVECTION IS

    LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG/EAST OF DRYLINE BEFORE BY 00 UTC. THE AREA

    IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.

    ..BRIGHT.. 06/07/2007

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    I have been keeping an eye on the meoscale discussion. got a lot more upbeat since i started looking at 20:00

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton, UK
  • Location: Northampton, UK

    A very impressive line of storms. Haven't got a clue how far this stretches but it has to be quite a considerable distance! :rofl:

    post-7065-1181250764_thumb.jpg

    Stewart

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    yep they have been building for the last few hours now

    DISCUSSION...WITH VERY UNSTABLE AND A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS IN

    PLACE ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...CONDITIONS ARE

    FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS

    ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE VICINITY DRY LINE NEXT FEW HOURS AND

    DEVELOP EWD. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY

    SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM.

    AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

    SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

    WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

    600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    A very impressive line of storms. Haven't got a clue how far this stretches but it has to be quite a considerable distance! :rofl:

    post-7065-1181250764_thumb.jpg

    Stewart

    Just for you Stewart just over 600miles , looks like initiation will be kicking further south as far as Tulsa very soon..

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton, UK
  • Location: Northampton, UK
    Just for you Stewart just over 600miles , looks like initiation will be kicking further south as far as Tulsa very soon.

    Impressive, really impressive. It's amazing when you look at the charts with the fronts, precipitation, etc how distinct the line is in all cases.

    Stewart

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    i wonder where Paul is now?

    just seen this ----

    * AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

    TORNADO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIPTON...OR ABOUT NEAR IOWA CITY...

    MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

    Looks like most iof the tornado action has been in Wisconsin and Iowa, north of Paul & the team, though some hail has been reported closer to their stated destination: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/last3hours.html

    Also note that the current temp. in Topeka Kansas is 91F. Ouch. Looking at the latest storm reports, they may be somewhere around some fairly heavy rain, if not now, then soon.

    :)P

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    SEL1

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 361

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    400 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

    PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

    EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 400 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

    TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

    GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

    AREAS.

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

    MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

    WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE

    OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

    ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...WW

    359...WW 360...

    DISCUSSION...WITH VERY UNSTABLE AND A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS IN

    PLACE ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...CONDITIONS ARE

    FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS

    ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE VICINITY DRY LINE NEXT FEW HOURS AND

    DEVELOP EWD. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY

    SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM.

    AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

    SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

    WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

    600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

    ...HALES

    Yes Mick.. Seems to be taking some time to fire but there's a nice cloud field developing now on the satellite picture.

    post-1669-1181257322_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    seems like they are in for a rough night over there in the states. severe weather seems to be dominating the line south to north of those mid country states

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    You can see by the 12z soundings that OK City ascent showed a much stronger cap than further North over Topeka, KS. Maybe explains why cap is taking longer to break further South:

    post-1052-1181258263_thumb.pngpost-1052-1181258274_thumb.png

    As Potty says, nice Cu fields SW across central OK down to Nern TX:

    post-1052-1181258348_thumb.pngpost-1052-1181258336_thumb.png

    2100utc sfc plot positions the SW to NE dry-line where the cu field is generating ahead of:

    post-1052-1181258506_thumb.png

    Obs chart over KS shows 69-71F dewpoints over SE Kansas but only 35F DPs near Witchita further West of the dry line!:

    post-1052-1181258679_thumb.png

    Expect Paul and co have headed South towards OK border to be in the moist air SE of dryline waiting for intiation in cu field.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    thanks Nick, nice to see the posts they help with my very large learning curve :)

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Line now extends all the way to Albilene TX, and its a bit more active on the TX/OK border too

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Impressive cells going up just north of Tulsa (live webcam still)

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