6th June 2007 - Nebraska

[NL]

will these do NL??

Whao, now thats a set off wire snips!!!

Think i'll probably get caught,, by the time ive worked out how the sodden things work!!

Edited June 7, 2007 by NL

[Gorky]

The visible Satellite Loop is pretty cool showing how fast these storms appeared.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/...g&itype=vis

Tops to 62K ft and climbing according to GrLevel3

It also looks like a second outflow boundary is racing SE through Yuma County in Colorado which should make things Interesting around Goodland in an hour or so. Could get 2 OB's and the Dryline all meeting up in that area at once, coinciding with weakening cap due to the setting sun. Storms are going to explode there also I reckon.

Edited June 7, 2007 by Gorky

[pottyprof]

Thought you'd be impressed..

:lol:

On that note I'm off to snip Gorky's wires.. That doesn't sound quite right..

Nah.. Night all and good luck to all the chasers.. Stay safe everyone....

*edit.. Cool sat animation Nath..

[NL]

Night potty, before you go take alook at this.!!

[pottyprof]

Could be a great run there NL.. :lol:

[NL]

The visible Satellite Loop is pretty cool showing how fast these storms appeared.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/...g&itype=vis

Tops to 62K ft and climbing according to GrLevel3

It also looks like a second outflow boundary is racing SE through Yuma County in Colorado which should make things Interesting around Goodland in an hour or so. Could get 2 OB's and the Dryline all meeting up in that area at once, coinciding with weakening cap due to the setting sun. Storms are going to explode there also I reckon.

Simply outstanding.........

Tornado vortex sig..

[Gorky]

This is only a few miles from Broken Bow...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ARNOLD...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 833 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ARNOLD...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

ANSELMO BY 850 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THIS REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CUSTER

COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING

FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

Anyway. I really am going to bed now... Got to be up for work in 4.5 hours :lol:

Hope things work out for you Paul!

[Roger J Smith]

Do you guys have any recent info on Paul's location? That cell off to the west of Broken Bow looks quite nasty. I think it would be close to dark there now, in fact with that cell on the western horizon it would be pitch black except for the lightning.

Will be seeing the new 00z upper air and then progs in the next 30-60 mins, stay tuned, there might be a few new wrinkles, but this seems to be on the boil now. :lol:

[NL]

Last i know is what he put up on the thread and that they were goin to Broken Bow then see what the situ was then go from there, but that was like 10hrs ago..

[Roger J Smith]

At 0250z I noticed a tornado warning that included the prediction that a tornado would be near Broken Bow at 0255z.

Radar had the appearance of a tornadic storm somewhat to the northwest of Broken Bow.

[Roger J Smith]

Well, it's pretty well me and Inktomi Spider keeping watch here, looks to me like a tornadic storm developed near Broken Bow as predicted by the various agencies and tracked northeast towards a point south of O'Neill NE, now this line seems quite intense and if Paul happens to get on later, progs have shown a rapid overspreading of the front with much colder air and very strong winds, which suggests to me acceleration and southward extension as the next phases, therefore, keeping in mind the necessary return to Denver, would suggest the chase head south into northeast KS in order to circle back along the developing front through tomorrow. Although I would expect the worst tornadic activity to be across northern IA and southern MN into WI tomorrow, NE will eventually dry slot as the wrap around keeps somewhat distant over SD and WY for the time being, reaching perhaps nw NE. This dry slot will have strong westerly winds and highs near 75 F with low humidity, so not much to see or do there, would expect some tornadic potential around Salina to Concordia KS through tomorrow mid-day on the trailing end of the active cold front.

As for tonight's action (local time) I suspect it will become even more intense because of the rapid height falls progged after 06z and the approaching jetmax of 120 knots from CO and NM. The one somewhat limiting factor has been only moderate dew points around 17 C in eastern NE but I am seeing some 19s in central KS now so front could continue to intensify overnight and will certainly be more intense on a larger scale tomorrow. Looks ominous for areas north of Chicago mainly, as the low tracks northeast and continues to deepen slowly now.

[Paul Sherman]

Great Day and One we really enjoyed, we shot North from North Platte and intercepted the tornado warned cell west of Valentine, it had already produced a great Cone Tornado and was very HP Dominant when we got to it, we captured a nice Funnel Cloud from this, then the most crazy thing happened and a VERY Strong Gustnado formed literally in front of our car and spun towards our car, it went right over the top of us, it was so strong we initially trought it was a Debris Cloud from a Tornado as we had a Meso on radar in front of us, I had to look upwards above my head to see if a Funnel was up there. Then headed North and got pounded by Ping Pong sized hail, I think a Grapefruit sized one smashed into our roof, have great Video Footage of this (Stewart will be gutted) Noticed the South Dakota stuff was going to crap so blasted south eastwards towards the developing Supercells on the Dryline in North Central Nebraska near our 1st Chase Target :lol: Should always go with your gut instinct. We got to these storms with an hour of Light to go but with 55-60mph Storm Motions we had to watch from the West, here I got some of the most amazing Mamma Shots I have ever had, could not penetrate the line in darkness due to Safety Issues so staying on the Nebraska / S Dakota border for the night just west of the Beast!!

Target tomorrow is Eastern Kansas and this should be a much better day for Tornado Opportunites.

Will post pics in a moment

Paul Sherman

[WhiteFox]

Looks ominous for areas north of Chicago mainly, as the low tracks northeast and continues to deepen slowly now.

Mets here in Chicago concur with those thoughts. Northern Illinois, Wisconsin and Southern Minnesota highlighted as most likely areas close to Chicagoland for severe storms tomorrow evening/overnight. Hoping to catch a good lightning show here in the City tomorrow night.

[Nick F]

Well a HIGH risk, as expected, for later today over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, out of reach for Paul and Tony, but Ern Kansas looks a god bet - even though it's in a SLGT risk zone. They should get some squall lines developing ahead of the cold front moving East and some possible dry line interaction too, always a chance of some tornadoes with strong veering of sfc winds near cold front and good amounts of CAPE.

GFS shows strong speed shear aloft over KS, so supercells are likely to be embedded in the squall line, some decent CAPE aswell ahead of the cold front.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1251 AM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...INCLUDING PARTS OF ERN

MN...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL WI...AND THE UPPER PEN OF MICHIGAN....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK

AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT...EXTENDING

SOUTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...DIGGING TO THE SOUTH OF

RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...IS PROGGED TO

CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA

TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED

LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...NOW LIFTING INTO THE NORTH

CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE

UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF THE

TWO SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...LEADING TO A

RE-INTENSIFICATION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS NEAR A DEEP

CYCLONE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH

NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL SURGE THROUGH THE

UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN

STRONG ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL

/SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE

BROADER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

...MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL NOSE

NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID

DAY...ALLOWING FOR HEATING OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IN WARM

SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE. SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR LIKELY TO

CLIMB AT LEAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG...

AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.

THOUGH DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS STRONG AS AREAS UNAFFECTED

BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE

SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN

MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS

SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF

A 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER

SHEAR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH

40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW...PLUS FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL

VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE...POTENTIAL FOR

TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SEEMS HIGH. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE

AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL

WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA

NOT AFFECTED BY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

FARTHER SOUTH...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION GENERALLY SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS

OF EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY

LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE

PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RAPID EVOLUTION OF A

SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH FRONTAL FORCING...IN STRONG FLOW/SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD

TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION MORE QUICKLY THAN EASTWARD INTO THE

LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. SOME OF THE

WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RISK FOR

ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.

AND...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING OR

OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GREAT

LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT.

...OZARK PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MIDDLE

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD

TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT...AS

MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SLOWLY WEAKENS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A RISK OF HAIL IN

STRONGER STORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT

TENDENCY MAY BE FOR STORMS TO BE UNDERCUT OR FORM TO THE NORTH OF

SURFACE COLD FRONT...LIMITING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..KERR/TAYLOR.. 06/07/2007

[stevestorms]

Hey Paul, dont you have a home life in the UK anyway sounds like the fun continues, have a great day and will see yer on some UK storms this year or at Bar B Q , BTW we have some french thundery rain coming to see us early tomorrow morning -----ho hum! will just have to do :lol:

[Stormraider]

I would just like to mention that i have a Sister in Grand Forks, North Dakota. I have just seen on some of the charts that, the area could have possible t-storms/tornadoes.

Grand Forks in smack bang in the middle of a big plain... flatter than a blind cobblers thumb, She says they get some great storms there in the Summer months, not quite on the same scale as those further South but still potent nonetheless.

If they do get any storms i have asked her to try and get some photos if possible, send them to me and will post them on here.

Good hunting PS.

Steve