6th June 2007 - Nebraska

[AudMun]

Cheers Nick

[Nick F]

Here we go ...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

337 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RUSHVILLE...HAY SPRINGS...GORDON...

* UNTIL 415 PM MDT

* AT 332 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR

INTERSECTION OF BEAVER CREEK ROAD AND WHITE CLAY CREEK ROAD...OR

ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF HAY SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND LARABEE ROAD BY 400 PM MDT...

IN ADDITION TO THIS STORM...ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG

ROTATION WAS INDICATED BY SPOTTERS 3 MILES SOUTH OF CLINTON AT 335

PM MDT. PERSONS ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY SHOULD SEEK SHELTER

IMMEDIATELY.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING

FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

Be the SE cells of this storm area then, with Gordon warned in the path:

[NL]

Visible satellite image of those 'beasts'

[pottyprof]

current warnings...

[Nick F]

Some nice cumulus fields developing SW of the storm area over Nw NE/Sw SD, along what must be the dry line:

Looking at the radar, right now a good spot would be Alliance with the East Road to Hyannis and roads North of there to folow storms that develop on the SE side, though Paul and Tony are well to the East if they are headed to Broken Bow:

Be interesting to see how this develops Eastwards, will the cap break East of the dry-line in the next few hours for Paul and Tony to latch onto a storm with in distance?

[NL]

See your GRX has ran out potty .. same here, at least we have college Dupage..!! I heard that these even get out warnings before the NWS dont know how considering the warnings come from NWS.!!!

[Nick F]

SW South Dakota really seeing some development on the NE side of the storm area moving NE, very messy though:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD

409 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 515 PM MDT

* AT 406 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR POTATO CREEK...OR ABOUT 25

MILES NORTHWEST OF MARTIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

POTATO CREEK...

HISLE...

TAKE SHELTER IN A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND

FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND EXTERIOR WALLS. PROTECT YOURSELF

FROM FLYING DEBRIS WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR CUSHIONS.

[pottyprof]

Aye... Tiz a shame about GRlevel3.. I can't find the sodding dll it uses..

Looks like a very well defined dry line now Nick. Let's hope things are going good over there and it doesn't all end up with HP stuff. That would be a real shame.

Now that is one hell of a nasty looking storm system..

[Gorky]

I've paid for GrLevel 3 last year and I don't regret it. It's a nice tool for a not unreasonable one off purchase. I use it when watching some of the US motorsport events to predict when rain is going to arrive and play havoc with the races so it isn't completely useless outside of storm chasing

As for my decision to start in Kansas... it looks like things are really having a tough time going down there, but I havn't lost hope yet. There are some CU going up in NW Kansas. and I'd probably head in that direction on my virtual chase now. I think I'll stay in Kansas on the off cahcne of a storm popping whilst there is still some light and hope to get some structure shots through the dust... There should be some pretty nice sunsets with all of the dust blowing around also. Inititation may still occur before dark, although it will be a close thing. It looks a bit better up in the north Platte area for some more storms to start firing before darkness descends, so fingers crossed that this is the case and the team can get onto something

[pottyprof]

I intend to buy it as soon as I can Nathan.. I was hoping to re-use just for this unexpected stint. What is it? about $75? Great time to buy at the moment too.. Brilliant bit of kit.

[Gorky]

CU Field seems pretty good right now on the KS/CO/NE border area, and on the North Platte Radar, there appears to be a nice Outflow Boundary eastblishing itself SW-NE through the area, which is probably responsible. Hopefully, we'll get some initiation within the hour in this area

It was about that I think. I bought GrLevel 3, although I'm rpetty tempted to splash out on GrLevel 2 now. The higher resolution just looks way too useful if I were to go out with it next year. Data might be an issue though. The Leevl 3 data stream I use is free and pretty reliable. I'm not sure if I'd have to pay monthly for a level2 data stream or not. I'll have to investigate

Edited June 6, 2007 by Gorky

[NL]

Yeah gonna get it too certainly is a fantastic bit of kit theres a website for users of gfx wx tools http://www.grlevelxstuff.com/ .

Anyway hope Paul And Tony managed to get on those storms NW Nebraska now making there way into S/E South Dakota , Paul hasnt checked in at broken bow so maybe they've just kept driving. Nothing appearing to the south of these cells so its long haul or possible BUSTOLA CRAPOLLA..

Sorry i think you may be right Nathan just checked radar images and there is definatley appearance of an outflow boundary and its increasing rapidly, i forget how quickly these monsters can grow...!!!!

Edited June 6, 2007 by NL

[Gorky]

The Outflow Boundary has almost caught the Dryline now. Look for fireworks just west of Broken Bow in the next hour if these two interact the way they should

[NL]

The Outflow Boundary has almost caught the Dryline now. Look for fireworks just west of Broken Bow in the next hour if these two interact the way they should

Yep new cells goin up now 20 mile west of Ogallala, mesocyclone spotted 10 mile nort /north platte, soon it'll be dark there

hope its not another repeat of month ago..

[pottyprof]

Looking that way though NL.. I'm just hoping that if anything puts down, it's in the middle of nowhere..

[NL]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0656 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB...CNTRL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 353...

VALID 062356Z - 070200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 353 CONTINUES.

LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL SD AND HAS

DEVELOPED A LARGER SUB-SYNOPTIC CIRCULATION BASED ON PRE-STORM NLY

WINDS AT KPHP. THIS CELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE KPIR

VCNTY BY 0030-01Z. CELL EVOLUTION MAY TREND TOWARD LINEAR LATER IN

THE EVENING AS THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REGIME BACKS TO SLY. IN

FACT...CELLS DEVELOPING SOUTH ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

MAY BE THE TALE-TELL SIGNS OF THIS OCCURRING. STILL... RELATIVELY

BACKED SFC FLOW MAY YIELD LOCALIZED CONDITIONS FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO.

BUT...DMGG WINDS/HAIL WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE THROUGH

THE EVENING OVER CNTRL AND PERHAPS NERN SD.

FARTHER S...AN AREA FROM CNTRL NEB NEWD INTO SERN SD IS BEING

MONITORED FOR PSBL TSTM INITIATION IN THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. AN

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRYLINE COLLISION WILL TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE HOUR

FROM NEAR KANW SWWD TO KLBF. CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS

DEVELOP RECENTLY IN THE POST-DRYLINE BOUNDARY LAYER. ONCE THE

COLLISION OCCURS...AND COOLING ALOFT SPREADS EWD...INHIBITION SHOULD

ERODE SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS

CNTRL NEB...IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT GFS/SREF MODEL GUIDANCE.

WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW VECTORS WERE MOSTLY PARALLEL WITH THE DRYLINE

FARTHER N...PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE VECTORS WERE MORE NORMAL AT

LOCATIONS FARTHER S. THUS...THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR MORE

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND

HAIL.

ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO SERN SD...EITHER

JOINING...OR REMAINING A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE ACTIVITY

TRANSLATING NEWD INTO NERN SD LATER THIS EVENING.

These new cells around North Platte are moving some lick, 45 knots (52mph)..!!

Think it must be still a little breezy..

[pottyprof]

Not good for chasing though NL..

[NL]

Most certainly not Potty, the storms have grown from 8,000-9,000ft to 30,000+ft in about 10 minutes!!

[Roger J Smith]

Just got in here from work (it is 6 pm PDT).

The situation looks explosive to me, winds across Colorado are mixing down from the strong jet aloft, and reaching 70 mph gusts over many areas, this will pile into the dry-line feature soon and also, the surface low continues to deepen rapidly. As soon as these features get clear of the Black Hills, the downslope effect in the strong NW flow comes to an end and the real dynamics for severe weather kick in almost instantly. I expect this situation to be extremely harsh overnight with rapid development around an hour from now, that is 02z, lasting through the overnight. I hope the chasers stay fairly far south as soon as overnight action starts, or they could get stranded by road closures and debris on the wrong side of Thursday's action which is likely to be in eastern NE, se SD and western IA into sw MN as well as further east where I know they won't go because of time constraints.

I would not be at all surprised if we have a repeat of the severity of Greensburg, just hoping it misses any sizeable town this time, but would not wish to be in central Nebraska tonight unless of course chasing storms. Ditto central SD, anywhere from about Pierre SD to Grand Island NE then further east is in line for tornadic development in the F3-5 range soon.

[Gorky]

Yup. Thats some pretty explosive development right there.

There was nothing in Brown county worth speaking of 10 minutes ago and now it's 62dbz with tops to 47K ft. That's only 2 frames on Grlevel3

Tornado probabilities have been increased in response to this development.

I will haev to go to bed soon unfortunately. Hope the team stays safe.

Edited June 7, 2007 by Gorky

[pottyprof]

Thanks for that Roger.. looking like a long night then with fingers crossed that it's all in open country..

Takes me 2 seconds to cut your power cable Nath..

[NL]

Yeah, Yeah, Nathan.. we know ...4minute updates.. wheres those wire snips!!!

Nice one Roger i love reading your forecast/conditions, really telling it like it is and explained

superbly.

[pottyprof]

Aye.. I'm off to bed shortly too.. been a long day...

[NL]

Think i'll watch these for an hour or so..

Ooops i meant this!!

Edited June 7, 2007 by NL

[pottyprof]

will these do NL??