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6th June 2007 - Nebraska


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Currently in North Platte (Nebraska) overnight and just on the Moderate Box, possible upgrade to High anticipated from the SPC On the 7z Update. We have great road options here sitting on I80 (E-W) & Highway 83 (N-S). Today could be Insane but it also has the possibilities of being BUSTOLA CRAPOLA!! But when the Cap goes then all hell WILL Break loose today, just hope it is in the Daytime and not overnight. Have looked at lots of Models this evening and we are pretty happy with where we are at present. Insane Cape, and Massive Energy Helicity Values for this area, like the weakness in the Cap for this area and the Dryline Bulge, also an Upper Impulse overspreads this area from 00z tomorrow evening, could get Initiation as early as 4-5pm but more likely to be 7-9Pm. This is going to be a Very High octane Chase tomorrow and possibly one of the Most Dangerous ones I have ever done, am expecting North to North Eastward storm motions and fast movers at that, as Roger says Visibilities could be zero due to Dust Storms and insane Inflow from the fields, expecting temps up to 95f with surface winds up to 30mph mean and gusts to 45mph even without Storms nearby.

    Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

    Good luck tomorrow Sir Paul. Just looking at the upcoming forecast and the risk for Chicago overnight Thursday has been raised. We're looking at pretty much the whole Western Great Lakes region under that Red Severe Thunderstorm possibility. Like I said, should you find yourself this way then give me a shout and if the weather disappoints then the ribs won't!

    Just to give people a taste of the changes taking place over the next few days in Chicago we had highs of 18oC today, tomorrow 25oC and 32oC on Thursday which should give some real energy to the storms overnight Thursday. Tornadoes anywhere from Southern Illinois to Wisconsin can't be ruled out...

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Hi Mate

    Yes Thursday will be my last day of 3 Chases out here so will be chasing although with a Denver Flight on Friday afternoon will probably stay near to Northern Misory and southern Iowa, would love to chase near to Chicago and taste those ribs but that is just too far, agree that Chicago comes under the gun on Thursday evening and overnight, just hope it dodges the bullets!! Get your camera charged......

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    Hi Mate

    Yes Thursday will be my last day of 3 Chases out here so will be chasing although with a Denver Flight on Friday afternoon will probably stay near to Northern Misory and southern Iowa, would love to chase near to Chicago and taste those ribs but that is just too far, agree that Chicago comes under the gun on Thursday evening and overnight, just hope it dodges the bullets!! Get your camera charged......

    Paul S

    Next year fella. The southern barbecue styles are good, but Chicago ribs have to be tasted to be believed. Nothing better after a long hard day's chasing!

    Will be watching closely over the next two days; first time I've been in a potential severe outbreak this year. New batteries already set...

    Take care out there!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    SPC outlook earmarks Central Nebraska and Central Sern S. Dakota for greatest Tornado potential:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/a...70606_1200.html

    Paul and Tony should be in a good position to chase Eastwards or NEwards across central NE, let's hope the cap breaks for them, cause there's a hell of alot of energy to release if it does, and with great environmental conditions of shear aswell - some monster supercells to possibly develop.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    So 7am here and I cant sleep, up and about early in readiness for today, Chasers starting to flood the area, we are very happy with target so far and the SPC Have included everything we posted last night into their discussion with what seems 2 areas now, the 1st in Eastern Montana and the West of N Dakota is a big No No, but I am still liking our corridoor of activity as Nick says from S Central S Dakota to North Central Kansas, we are in the middle of the 15% Tornado Risk atm, so a lot of sitting around and waiting today.

    Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Sounds like you've picked a good spot. The optomist in me was gunning for Hayes, Kansas on a hunch that cap would break earlier than expected and further south on the more pronounced dryline in Kansas. I seem to be going against most of the experts though on this one :lol: It's possibly the May 4th Scenario playing on my mind too where initiation was much further south than anyone expected. North Platte seems a pretty safe bet giving you options to play the Northern area if capping does look like it will be a problem. I'll probably be stuck in a virtual bust :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    In all fairness though Nath, that is still not a Bad looking target area for today, remember there are going to be Chasers that are not willing to travel 1,000 miles round trip to get to Nebraska and S Dakota when Storms should fire all the way down the line into the Texas Panhandle today. Looks like we could be doomed though as Mike Hollingshead has just pulled into the Hotel Car Park and he is having an awful year :rofl: :lol:

    Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    let his tyres down when he's not looking Paul. then he cant jinx the chase :rofl: :lol:

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
    SPC Have included everything we posted last night into their discussion with what seems 2 areas now, the 1st in Eastern Montana and the West of N Dakota is a big No No, but I am still liking our corridoor of activity as Nick says from S Central S Dakota to North Central Kansas, we are in the middle of the 15% Tornado Risk atm, so a lot of sitting around and waiting today.

    Paul Sherman

    Hope you have picked a good spot Paul and good luck chasing today.. fingers and toes crossed you get to see a nado close up!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Just had breakfast with a zillion Chasers, all with Laptops on tables whilst eating Pancakes!! Models changing all the Time, still looking like a Jaunt North and East of where we are but not that far, expecting 1st initiation from 6-9pm still, SPC Have backed down the Tornado risk from 15 to 10% but still looking good for Tornadoes. Expecting cells to explode and Giant hail possible within the 1st half hour of Initiaton today. Could be a Stair-stepping day picking off the developing cells and letting them crash on by us to our west.

    Probably leaving here in the next 2-3 hours

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton, UK
  • Location: Northampton, UK
    Just had breakfast with a zillion Chasers, all with Laptops on tables whilst eating Pancakes!!

    Probably leaving here in the next 2-3 hours

    Paul S

    Must be one hell of an atmosphere there!

    I should think you'll be happy once the waiting is done and you can get on with the chase as soon as something breaks!

    Stewart

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Latest on frontal movements.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I'd love to hear what some of the talk must have been about with all you chasers there Paul!

    Does look like a very interesting day, intiation may take a little while because of the strong cap that is present, GFS progs it to be about 4C right now which is hefty however instablity is huge and the cold front heading in will help to erode the cap hopefully in time for the huge instablity to still be at its prime.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    I'd love to hear what some of the talk must have been about with all you chasers there Paul!

    Does look like a very interesting day, intiation may take a little while because of the strong cap that is present, GFS progs it to be about 4C right now which is hefty however instablity is huge and the cold front heading in will help to erode the cap hopefully in time for the huge instablity to still be at its prime.

    Yes was really cool to sit there with Organised Chase tours, some even from Canada and other Chasers talking about what "Should" Happen today, we are about to leave and head east down the I80 To Kearney and then North towards Broken Bow where we will grab some more data. Tamara the atmosphere is electric over here, you can feel something big is going to happen today, we have Hot southeast surface winds blowing at 25-30mph at the moment, North Platte have just tested their Tornado Sirens and that sounded really eerie as well. Hopeful of some great shots today.

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    you would think the tornado sirens got checked pretty regular out there. fingers crossed you get the good stuff shortly Paul

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    Current Satellite...

    post-1669-1181149707_thumb.jpg

    Target with radar...

    post-1669-1181149944_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    must say the graph for Broken bow doesn't look too promising. i suppose its a wait and see set-up for them though

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Meso discussion issued west south Dakota..

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1236 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

    AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY THROUGH SERN MT AND WRN SD

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 061736Z - 061930Z

    STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AFTER 18Z OVER NERN WY

    AND SPREAD NEWD INTO SERN MT AND WRN SD. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR

    SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND

    ISOLATED TORNADOES. WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON.

    EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER W

    CNTRL WY SWD INTO W CNTRL CO. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM SERN WY SEWD

    THROUGH NERN CO THEN SWD ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER. SECONDARY LOW WAS

    LOCATED OVER SERN WY AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BECOME THE

    DOMINANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON. ENELY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH

    DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS NERN

    WY AS THE SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS AND SHIFTS ENEWD INTO WRN SD. THIS

    MOISTURE WILL EXIST BENEATH 8.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

    CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALREADY

    SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. WV

    IMAGERY INDICATES A PRONOUNCED LEAD VORT MAX OVER S CNTRL WY LIFTING

    NNEWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS

    LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM

    CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL WY SPREADING NEWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

    INCREASE AS THIS ASCENT INTERCEPTS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NERN

    WY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SLY

    AND INCREASING TO 50+ KT ABOVE 500 MB WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH

    INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SOME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY

    EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Broken Bow it now seems has been a great call..

    TornadoWatch - 0400

    WWUS20 KWNS 062048

    SEL3

    SPC WW 062048

    NEZ000-SDZ000-070400-

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 353

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    345 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA

    MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

    EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL

    1100 PM CDT.

    TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

    GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

    AREAS.

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

    MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF MULLEN

    NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA.

    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

    OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 352...

    DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE

    DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH. WITH A VERY STRONG WIND

    PROFILE IN PLACE AND MLCAPES INCREASING TO IN EXCESS OF 2000

    J/KG...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL

    WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS...WITH STORMS EVOLVING INTO A

    SQUALL LINE AFTER 00Z AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WATCH AREA.

    AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

    SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

    WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

    550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

    ...HALES

    Directions: To here - From here

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    Wow, could be quite an active night then?

    Has anyone heard from paul latley on his progress.

    Not sure if anyone is in txt contact but as Paul said earlier gonna head towards Broken Bow

    then evaluate the situation, heading perhaps another 50-60 mile north east west towards Mullen would/could be a good bet..

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton, UK
  • Location: Northampton, UK
    Not sure if anyone is in txt contact but as Paul said earlier gonna head towards Broken Bow

    then evaluate the situation, heading perhaps another 50-60 mile north east towards Mullen would/could be a good bet..

    Radar does seem to suggest it would be good around the Mullen area. Bit of luck and Paul could get into a stair step for the rest of the day.

    Is there any reason this seems to have broken early? SPC earlier seemed to be suggesting initiation would happen after 00z. Just curious.

    Stewart

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    Is there any reason this seems to have broken early? SPC earlier seemed to be suggesting initiation would happen after 00z. Just curious.

    Stewart

    Storms are currently tending to break out over NW Nebraska behind the dryline and ahead of the cold front where the air is being more freely mixed and isn't subject to a cap unlike East of the dryline where instability is still well capped atm, though this cap to the East of the dry line looks to be eroded eventually in places this evening to allow surface based storms to develop and a greater potential for tornadoes further E and NE:

    post-1052-1181165870_thumb.png

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0331 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

    AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL SD

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 062031Z - 062230Z

    STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO N CNTRL NEB AND EVENTUALLY

    CNTRL SD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE

    THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

    DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB. A DRYLINE EXTENDS

    SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN NEB AND WRN KS. THE COLD FRONT WAS

    FARTHER WEST ACROSS ERN WY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD

    FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE AND ERN CO. THE WARM SECTOR

    EAST OF THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL

    DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THIS EVENING AS UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN EXIT

    REGION OF A STRONG JET MAX ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND

    INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS THE DRYLINE WILL

    CONTINUE TO MIX NEWD. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE

    STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HIGH BASED

    STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER

    WEST OF DRYLINE ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NERN CO IN VICINITY OF THE

    PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS COINCIDENT WITH LEADING

    EDGE OF DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD

    THROUGH WY. AS THIS ASCENT SHIFTS NEWD WITH TIME...THE CAP MAY

    EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE

    LOW AND SOME DISTANCE DOWN THE DRYLINE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL

    CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND THE LOW LEVEL

    JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME

    INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES

    CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

    Tornado warning for SWern South Dakota already though associated with the cells behind the dryline, they must be rooting into the surface now:

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD

    317 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

    NORTHWESTERN BENNETT COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

    * UNTIL 415 PM MDT

    * AT 315 PM MDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF

    ALLEN...OR ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARTIN...MOVING EAST AT 20

    MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

    ALLEN...

    AREAS SOUTH OF POTATO CREEK...

    IF YOU ARE NEAR THIS DANGEROUS TORNADO...TAKE COVER NOW! GO TO A

    BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. IF YOU ARE

    OUTDOORS...GO TO A LOW AREA LIKE A DITCH OR RAVINE AND COVER YOUR

    HEAD.

    These beasts here:

    post-1052-1181166234_thumb.png

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