Surprise Chase

[kold weather]

Wow, what a set-up, jeez I nearly missed this one completely thanks to category-4 Gonu. Anyway i strongly suspect the next few days (2-3) will almost certainly get a high risk when the days in question pops-up. A low pressure down to 978mbs in June is amazing, esp for inland part sof America which lacks the thermal gradient you see over places such as the Atlantic, but this time round the gradient looks amazing, the models are just amazing, so much instablity is present and the jet streak is something that wouldn't be out of place in late winter!

Paul- good on you for going out there again, I think we have a shot at another super outbreak and as Roger said given the power of the jet I really wouldn't be surprised to see some really powerful tornadoes.

[Nick F]

Day 3 MDT risk has been shoved further East - with the upper trough probably moving more quickly East than originally modelled, Ern Iowa and Minnesota under MDT. Maybe a alot of travelling over next few days to position yourselves for best potential:

NWS discussion for today:

day 1 convective outlook

nws storm prediction center norman ok

1255 am cdt tue jun 05 2007

.. nrn rockies/high plains...

exit region of very pronounced upper jet will shift across the nrn

rockies late in the period while associated sfc front will progress

across wrn mt into ern id by 06/00z. strength of upper system will

undoubtedly assist thunderstorm development along cold front as it

sweeps ewd into mt/id during peak heating. forecast soundings

across mt suggest isolated supercells are possible ... especially east

of the higher terrain during the evening hours where a bit of sely

low level inflow should enhance shear. large hail is the most

likely severe threat with this activity.

farther south ... lee trough will sharpen from ern wy into ern co in

response to approaching upper trough. convergence across the high

plains should prove adequate in generating scattered supercells by

early evening. substantial veering through a deep layer suggests

any storms that form will move slowly esewd. instability is not

expected to be particularly strong across the high plains during the

day1 period ... roughly 1000 j/kg ... but more than enough to warrant a

risk for at least hail.