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Mark Bayley

June C.E.T

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Quite a big drop afterall West, I suspect we may just dip down to 15.3C given the mins we've seen today, tommorow will probably hold about steady thanks to higher mins tonight.

Looks my pnt is going to be close to the mark and will drag my average error down a little further. Also worth noting that this June may have been one of the most easterly ever for June, which while more then what I suspected I can't say I'm too surprised given the southerly track of the lows.

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Junes with a cooler second half compared to the first half since 1870

1883, 1885, 1896, 1900, 1907, 1911, 1915, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1922, 1925, 1931, 1933

1937, 1939, 1940, 1950, 1958, 1963, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1993, 1997

2004, 2006

2007 joins this list.

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Kevin;

It will be less meaningful to talk about Julys and Augusts having a cooler second half than the first as these months should be fairly static all the way through. Whereas March-June should more often have a warmer second half than the first.

So what have we seen this year;

A cooler second half of March than the first half, for the first time since 2000.

A cooler second half of June than the first half.

A cooler first half of May than the second half of April, for the first time since 1996.

It must take you hours to work out past months that saw quirks in the CET between each half, Kevin.

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15.4C now. Quite a big fall really. Might well get to 15.2C afterall! http://www.climate-uk.com/

Manley is at 15.45 rounded down to 15.4C. I think last night was fairly mild in the CET zone at around 12/14C and today temps were between 18/20C so conceivably a very slight nudge upwards? Looking at tonight/tomorrow maybe there will be a slight nudge downwards to offset this so 15.4C is looking good perhaps as the final outurn. Hadley is at 15.3C today so the differential between the two is diminishing at last.

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So what have we seen this year;

A cooler second half of March than the first half, for the first time since 2000.

A cooler second half of June than the first half.

A cooler first half of May than the second half of April, for the first time since 1996.

Another one, the second half of March cooler than the first half of January, for the first time since 1996.

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Manley is at 15.45 rounded down to 15.4C. I think last night was fairly mild in the CET zone at around 12/14C and today temps were between 18/20C so conceivably a very slight nudge upwards? Looking at tonight/tomorrow maybe there will be a slight nudge downwards to offset this so 15.4C is looking good perhaps as the final outurn. Hadley is at 15.3C today so the differential between the two is diminishing at last.

Good call!

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It will be less meaningful to talk about Julys and Augusts having a cooler second half than the first as these months should be fairly static all the way through. Whereas March-June should more often have a warmer second half than the first.

It won't be as pronounced, but I suspect statistically the 2nd half of July is just ever so slightly warmer than the 1st half of July.

As for August, surely the 2nd half is very commonly cooler than the 1st half.

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It won't be as pronounced, but I suspect statistically the 2nd half of July is just ever so slightly warmer than the 1st half of July.

As for August, surely the 2nd half is very commonly cooler than the 1st half.

Not sure. If you look at the Hadley norms plot July looks fairly even. The zenith of the max temps is early in the month, whilst for the mins its later; that said the variation either way is very small.

Look like a 15.4 finish now. Just conceivable after some higher minima last night that it might nudge back to 15.5.

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Look like a 15.4 finish now. Just conceivable after some higher minima last night that it might nudge back to 15.5.

Looks like the coolest June since 2004 now and we`ve had 3 times more rainfall to then.

If it gets back upto 15.5 it`ll be my first right guess. <_<

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Staggering to reflect, despite a fairy miserable month, that we still have a finish around the top 50 Junes of all time, above the ten year mean, and comfortably clear of the climatic 30 year mean.

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Staggering to reflect, despite a fairy miserable month, that we still have a finish around the top 50 Junes of all time, above the ten year mean, and comfortably clear of the climatic 30 year mean.

I make it 57th assuming Hadley finishes on 15.3 which it seems likely to.

Thats what cloud cover does for you, minima have taken the month above average, maxima are in line with a low 14s month - hence to our modern climate-changed sensibilities it feels a cool month.

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I make it 57th assuming Hadley finishes on 15.3 which it seems likely to.

Thats what cloud cover does for you, minima have taken the month above average, maxima are in line with a low 14s month - hence to our modern climate-changed sensibilities it feels a cool month.

Can't see it falling today, unless we're close to a round down. A quick scan of the max-min across CETland suggests a low 15C outturn. We'd need 14 or lower to be likely to induce a drop, and below around 12.5C to be certain of it.

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Can't see it falling today, unless we're close to a round down. A quick scan of the max-min across CETland suggests a low 15C outturn. We'd need 14 or lower to be likely to induce a drop, and below around 12.5C to be certain of it.

Hadley is on 15.3 to the 29th, Manley is on 15.4, if we are comparing 'top 50' etc finishes, we must refer to Hadley.

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Hadley is on 15.3 to the 29th, Manley is on 15.4, if we are comparing 'top 50' etc finishes, we must refer to Hadley.

Yes, I'm mixing two points there. The CET as we account for it in this thread will almost certainly be 15.4. The Hadley measure may well end at 15.3, which is still - hence my carefully chosen choice of words - AROUND the top 50.

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Hadley will drop given a slight fall today, Hadley will almost certainly be in the very low 15.3C's.

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Staggering to reflect, despite a fairy miserable month, that we still have a finish around the top 50 Junes of all time, above the ten year mean, and comfortably clear of the climatic 30 year mean.

I agree, SF - it is staggering. Especially when you consider the number of wet days which would normally be expected to drag the temperatures down a little. Even the recent brief northerly didn't seem to have too much of an impact. This June must be about as low as it can possibly get for a summer month now temperature wise. NW tracker has the CET at 15.3, about 1.2 above the average when one would have expected a lower figure given the synoptics. Not as warm as many were expecting though I guess.

Moose

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Although the month was warmer than would have been expected in the past given the synoptics, it's worth noting that the synoptics for 1-22 June were not cold. Rather, they were synoptics that we'd have normally expected to give a warm wet month, like June 1982.

Only the 23rd onwards produced particularly cold synoptics. Take background warming, SST anomalies etc. out of the equation and maybe a mid- to high 14s outturn would have been the result had the synoptics been repeated 30 years ago. I'm not at all sure that this is the limit of how cold a summer month can be nowadays- but it is close to the limit as to how wet and, in north-eastern areas, dull a summer month can be.

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Well the official line on the CET competition is in from P.Eden's site and it is:

15.4c

Congrats to Snowmaiden, Geordie Snow, Beng, Soaring Hawk and Bottesford who got it spot on!

Personally speaking I was only 0.4c out which ain't bad!

As SF has already said, it's remarkable that it's been a pretty poor month for summer weather yet we still have a month coming in at 1.3c above average.

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Is it really all that surprising? The start of the month was very warm in the West where the bulk of the CET triangle lies. In addition it was a cloudy month so overnights were up. Maxima were average after a warm start, there was a cool finish. We are in a warming trend and the surrounding seas are warmer than average.

I see nothing spectacular about it - its a few tenths above what it might have been 30 years ago - just like every other month these days, it was not a month dominated by 'cold' synoptics.

Remember we were a good 2.5 degrees above average halfway through the month, it was never going to be below average from there.

And yay me :ph34r:

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Staggering to reflect, despite a fairy miserable month, that we still have a finish around the top 50 Junes of all time, above the ten year mean, and comfortably clear of the climatic 30 year mean.

The top 3 easterly Junes were all 15.0+, including this one. They were also wetter than average as well.

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Going off Philip's figures, it looks as if we may have had our wettest June since 1879, the dullest June since 1998, the dullest May-June period since 1991, the dullest summer month since June 1998 and the wettest May-June period ever recorded.

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I was 0.2c out so not bad, not bad. :ph34r:

I'm not sure the fact that this June was 1.3c above the average is particulary significient. It is to be expected when there is a lot of cloud cover keeping the minima up, and for about the first two thirds of the month the airflow was more or less from a warm direction.

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