June C.E.T

[Stratos Ferric]

What does it take to get a below average month these days? I would imagine that in the not to distant fute anything below 16c in June will be considered way below average, crazy!.

Cold days are a rarity these days, let alone cold months. Yesterday, in terms of maximum temperature, was close to being the coldest day of the year in relative terms. Up there with Spring Bank and Feb 8th. The minimum still held above par though.

[Lettucing Gutted]

What does it take to get a below average month these days? I would imagine that in the not to distant fute anything below 16c in June will be considered way below average, crazy!.

I fear it will take a global wide reduction in greenhouse gasses and a good couple of centuries patience just to even get close to the 1961-1990 average. This ain't gonna happen the way the world is acting...

[Iceberg]

Another lowly 0.1 drop to 15.7, after today the CET should pretty much stay stable.

Edited June 27, 2007 by Iceberg

[snowray]

I fear it will take a global wide reduction in greenhouse gasses and a good couple of centuries patience just to even get close to the 1961-1990 average. This ain't gonna happen the way the world is acting...

Yes indeed!

Looking at world human population growth I think that its going to get harder and harder to rectify the problem, inevitably many of these people will produce more heat, polution and green house gasses, they will want cars, tv's, pc's, central heating/air conditioning, latest gizmos, etc etc...Also there is only a limited capacity in the more desirable locations in the globe, ie fertile, temperate.

Consider this, at the time of the birth of Christ world population was 250Milion, didnt go up much until medical discoveries such as penicillin, remaining under 1 billion until about 1900. Then things go crazy, by 1960 world population was 3 billion, by 2000 it was 6 Billion and by 2040 it is expected to rise again at a marginally slower rate but none the less to a very impressive 9 billion.

Its all well and good having politicians telling us to unplug our phone chargers when we are not charging our mobiles, sorting our rubbish for recicling and catching public transport (a bus trip round this way is £2 per trip) but it just strikes me as a very small drop in the ocean. Houses and businesses should have solar panels on the roof, there should be wind farms, but theres hardly any of this!

Just makes we wonder what is realy going on here...

[Stratos Ferric]

Another lowly 0.1 drop to 15.7, after today the CET should pretty much stay stable.

Don't know whether it will stay stable. There's a bit of a trade off now: what looked like a warm end a few days back has receded slightly, but equally the last couple of days have been less cold. 15.5 may well be the floor now, and 15.6 is perhaps possible.

[Weather-history]

Whatever the CET ends up, its pretty much in the background because the real talking point for the month is the rainfall totals, the floods and that we have just gone through one of the wettest May-June periods ever recorded.

[West is Best]

Don't know whether it will stay stable. There's a bit of a trade off now: what looked like a warm end a few days back has receded slightly, but equally the last couple of days have been less cold. 15.5 may well be the floor now, and 15.6 is perhaps possible.

Not to be contrary but I actually think the next 36 hours could see a sharper dip SF. The maxima today are still going to be below average, but the real 'dipper' will be the single figure minima tonight (for the first time in widespread terms). I'm not sure that it may not drift down more ...

Kevin's point is very pertinent though: the rainfall will be the story. Amazing to me that despite the deluge the E&W figure is not higher (actually 25th June was only equal wettest day in the month) - just shows how that rain sat on a relatively narrow strip. Mind you, more rain to come before close of play on 30th I think.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I fear it will take a global wide reduction in greenhouse gasses and a good couple of centuries patience just to even get close to the 1961-1990 average. This ain't gonna happen the way the world is acting...

LOL

BFTP

[Mr Sleet]

Consider this, at the time of the birth of Christ world population was 250Milion, didnt go up much until medical discoveries such as penicillin, remaining under 1 billion until about 1900. Then things go crazy, by 1960 world population was 3 billion, by 2000 it was 6 Billion and by 2040 it is expected to rise again at a marginally slower rate but none the less to a very impressive 9 billion.

And you could still fit them all on an area the size of the Isle of Wight

[Thundery wintry showers]

If March 2006 was anything to go by, I still think months below the 1961-90 average are possible. The maximum negative anomaly we can probably get these days is the -3C found on 1-23 March 2006. However, as global temperature have warmed and atmospheric circulation patterns have changed accordingly, it's harder to get the cold synoptics, and when they do arise they often aren't as cold as they used to be.

June 2007 has not, synoptically speaking, been a cold month. It's been one of the most "easterly" on record according to Philip Eden in the Telegraph, and easterlies blow off a relatively warm continent. The cyclonic interludes have often been southerly/cyclonic: it's only been since 23 June that we've had cold synoptics. Northerly and north-westerly winds are the main source of cool summer temperatures.

[shuggee]

Not to be contrary but I actually think the next 36 hours could see a sharper dip SF. The maxima today are still going to be below average, but the real 'dipper' will be the single figure minima tonight (for the first time in widespread terms). I'm not sure that it may not drift down more ...

Tonight's minima:

[shuggee]

CET discussion only please. Plenty of opportunities in the Environment Change Forum to discuss Climate Change, Global warming and argue to heart's content. Maybe worth reposting a couple of the excellent replies over there

[snowray]

Sorry boss, move that one over if you want to.

Couldn't agree with you more neforum.

As for the CET, well it hasn't fallen as much as expected of course in the last 2 or 3 days, the colder air did not hang around very long and although things look like warming up slightly I cant see anywhere hitting 20c before the end of the month and night temps will be pretty cool as well so I would suggest a further drop of .2/.3c.

[kold weather]

I think we may have a real shot at one of the wettest 30 day periods ever between 10-10 June/July, I'd love to know the highest rainfall total for the period between the 10th June-10th July, we may well come very close to getting above that.

The CET is still decently above average and tohugh it may drop a little tommorow I think higher mins on Thursday night and the higher cloud cover will prevent any further drop.

[Stu_London]

Down to 15.6 to 27/07/06 and with temps widely around 7C in the CET zone as I write this we should see another 0.1C wiped off tomorrow.

Rainfall continues to climb with another larger jump expected over the weekend.

Sunshine totals have now passed the dullest ever mark, but only just.

Will post my July CET prediction in the appropriate thread but it already looks odds on to be another wet month

[DR Hosking]

coldest night of the month last night in this part of Northants, down to 6.4 degrees. Highs of 15 or 16 should bring the cet down a notch or 2. Here the average monthly temp stands at 15.3 as of yesterday, likely to fall further with today. This is only 0.3 above the average for June here.

[DR Hosking]

got a query for those in the Know, according to Philip Eden & the Hadley centre the June average temperature should be 14 degrees. Am I correct in thinking that this is worked out using a 30 year mean from 1971 to 2000 ? If so im not sure how this is the case as looking at the hadley figures for that period they average out at 14.6 degrees?! Anyone can help me with this, 14 degrees seems very low if the 30 year average is used, or am I barking up completely the wrong tree!

[Kentish Man]

coldest night of the month last night in this part of Northants, down to 6.4 degrees. Highs of 15 or 16 should bring the cet down a notch or 2. Here the average monthly temp stands at 15.3 as of yesterday, likely to fall further with today. This is only 0.3 above the average for June here.

The Hadley Cet to 27 June is 15.4C (Manley is still 0.2C higher) . Today could bring the figures down by 0.2C. The last 2 days are problematic - best guess is static but local factors over the relevant sites may come into play and there is even a chance of a small rise with high nightime minima. However at this stage I'd still guess 15.4C for Manley and 15.2C for Hadley as the final outurn for the month.

[Stu_London]

got a query for those in the Know, according to Philip Eden & the Hadley centre the June average temperature should be 14 degrees. Am I correct in thinking that this is worked out using a 30 year mean from 1971 to 2000 ? If so im not sure how this is the case as looking at the hadley figures for that period they average out at 14.6 degrees?! Anyone can help me with this, 14 degrees seems very low if the 30 year average is used, or am I barking up completely the wrong tree!

I make it 422 Cumulative degrees for 1971-2000, which divided by 30 comes to 14.07C - rounded up to 14.1C

[DR Hosking]

apologies for that Stu, your right, just looked at it again! for those interested here are the 71 - 2000 figures courtesy of Hadley.

YEAR JAN FEB MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC annual

1971 4.5 4.5 4.9 7.9 11.6 12.4 16.9 15.6 14 11.3 6 6.6 9.68

1972 3.9 4.3 6.5 8.2 10.5 11.8 15.6 15.1 11.7 10.6 6.3 5.8 9.19

1973 4.5 4.3 6.2 7 11.4 14.8 15.6 16.5 14.3 9 6 4.9 9.54

1974 5.9 5.4 5.8 8.2 11 13.9 15.2 15.2 12.1 7.8 6.8 8.1 9.62

1975 6.8 4.4 4.8 8.3 9.9 14.7 17.4 18.7 13.5 9.9 6.3 5.3 10

1976 5.9 4.5 4.8 8.1 12.1 17 18.7 17.6 13.4 10.6 6.3 2 10.08

1977 2.8 5.2 6.9 7.2 10.6 12.2 15.9 15.2 13.3 11.8 6.6 6.1 9.48

1978 3.4 2.8 6.7 6.5 11.7 13.7 14.8 15 14.2 11.9 8.5 3.9 9.42

1979 -0.4 1.2 4.7 7.8 10 13.9 16.2 14.9 13.5 11.3 6.8 5.8 8.81

1980 2.3 5.7 4.7 8.8 11.2 13.8 14.7 15.9 14.7 9 6.6 5.6 9.42

1981 4.9 3 7.9 7.8 11.2 13.2 15.5 16.2 14.5 8.6 7.8 0.3 9.24

1982 2.6 4.8 6.1 8.6 11.6 15.5 16.5 15.7 14.2 10.1 8 4.4 9.84

1983 6.7 1.7 6.4 6.8 10.3 14.4 19.5 17.3 13.7 10.5 7.5 5.6 10.03

1984 3.8 3.3 4.7 8.1 9.9 14.5 16.9 17.6 13.7 11.1 8 5.2 9.73

1985 0.8 2.1 4.7 8.3 10.9 12.7 16.2 14.6 14.6 11 4.1 6.3 8.86

1986 3.5 -1.1 4.9 5.8 11.1 14.8 15.9 13.7 11.3 11 7.8 6.2 8.74

1987 0.8 3.6 4.1 10.3 10.1 12.8 15.9 15.6 13.6 9.7 6.5 5.6 9.05

1988 5.3 4.9 6.4 8.2 11.9 14.4 14.7 15.2 13.2 10.4 5.2 7.5 9.77

1989 6.1 5.9 7.5 6.6 13 14.6 18.2 16.6 14.7 11.7 6.2 4.9 10.5

1990 6.5 7.3 8.3 8 12.6 13.6 16.9 18 13.2 11.9 6.9 4.3 10.63

1991 3.3 1.5 7.9 7.9 10.8 12.1 17.3 17.1 14.7 10.2 6.8 4.7 9.52

1992 3.7 5.4 7.5 8.7 13.6 15.7 16.2 15.3 13.4 7.8 7.4 3.6 9.86

1993 5.9 4.6 6.7 9.5 11.4 15 15.2 14.6 12.4 8.5 4.6 5.5 9.49

1994 5.3 3.2 7.7 8.1 10.7 14.5 18 16 12.7 10.2 10.1 6.4 10.24

1995 4.8 6.5 5.6 9.1 11.6 14.3 18.6 19.2 13.7 12.9 7.7 2.3 10.52

1996 4.3 2.5 4.5 8.5 9.1 14.4 16.5 16.5 13.6 11.7 5.9 2.9 9.2

1997 2.5 6.7 8.4 9 11.5 14.1 16.7 18.9 14.2 10.2 8.4 5.8 10.53

1998 5.2 7.3 7.9 7.7 13.1 14.2 15.5 15.9 14.9 10.6 6.2 5.5 10.34

1999 5.5 5.3 7.4 9.4 12.9 13.9 17.7 16.1 15.6 10.7 7.9 5 10.63

2000 4.9 6.3 7.6 7.8 12.1 15.1 15.5 16.6 14.7 10.3 7 5.8 10.3

total 126 127.1 188.2 242.2 339.4 422 494.4 486.4 411.3 312.3 206.2 151.9 292.26

average 4.20 4.24 6.27 8.07 11.31 14.07 16.48 16.21 13.71 10.41 6.87 5.06 9.74

[DR Hosking]

just looked again at the figures and compared them to the last 10 years 1996 - 2006. The last 10 years have been on average 0.6 degrees warmer than the 30 year average. With only december actually averaging below the 30 year average, and only by 0.02 degrees! The other 11 months were all considerably above average with the Septembers being the worse, September 96-06 averaging 1.02 degrees warmer then 71-00 period.

other particularly warm months are february, june, august and october, all averaging 0.7 degrees or more than the 71-00 average. The months that seem least effected by warming were January, July and as mentioned december, all within 0.5 degrees of the average. Interestingly despite the warm/hot summers of recent years July seems to have warmed less then any month other than december, only being 0.35 above average. Anyway, I will stop my ramblings now, just thought some of you may be interested.

[West is Best]

15.4C now. Quite a big fall really. Might well get to 15.2C afterall! http://www.climate-uk.com/

[mushymanrob]

15.4C now. Quite a big fall really. Might well get to 15.2C afterall! http://www.climate-uk.com/

wheres summer?....

[Joneseye]

15.4C now. Quite a big fall really. Might well get to 15.2C afterall! http://www.climate-uk.com/

Hope so, not for any reason other than I predicted it....

[osmposm]

Am I correct in thinking that this is worked out using a 30 year mean from 1971 to 2000 ? If so im not sure how this is the case as looking at the hadley figures for that period they average out at 14.6 degrees?!

DR, I've posted this before, but it's a useful link for those who missed it - I keep it in my "favourites"!

The full monthly/yearly CET figures since 1900, together with the averages for both 71-00 and 61-90, can be found here:

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley...av_temperat.htm

Edited June 29, 2007 by osmposm