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Mark Bayley

June C.E.T

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Stu 24 x 16 = 384

30 x 15.2 = 456

Ergo you need 72 / 6 = 12C for the remainder of the month. I think that's really unlikely personally, but we'll see!

I do think 15.2 looks a tad too low but IF it stays wet and cloudy Mon / Tues then a big drop is possible. Even though I thought it unlikely a couple of days ago there's even a chance of the max tomorrow not exceeding 13. A drop of 0.6 by Thursday is possible, but I doubt well see any net drop thereafter.

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I have attempted to run the CET until the end of the month based on model output (with some human input) - I will refer back to it during the next few days to monitor its accuracy - sorry if that is a bore for people - if it is wildly incorrect, I won't persist with it into July

These are my predictions

22/06 16.0 - Actual 16.1

23/06 16.0 - Actual 16.0

24/06 15.9 - Actual 15.9

25/06 15.7

26/06 15.5

27/06 15.3

28/06 15.2

29/06 15.2

30/06 15.2

Lets see if these are accurate

Still on track although the cooling over the next 2-3 days won't be anywhere near what I expected (I thought a late May bank holiday type event may be on the cards) - Also WIB's little ridge for and the low minima it would have brought for Thursday am is now downgraded so I think we will now run out to about 15.4C or maybe 15.5C

Rainfall figures should be kept an eye on. Todays rain is mainly over the CET zone, so it could be a very high daily total - pushing the month into the top 10% category with around a week to go

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Rainfall figures should be kept an eye on. Todays rain is mainly over the CET zone, so it could be a very high daily total - pushing the month into the top 10% category with around a week to go

The rainfall totals represent the whole of England and Wales and not just the CET zone. :)

By the end of today, going of Philip's value, it will be in the top 50 wettest Junes recorded.

If it records 100mm, it will be the first time since 1830 that May and June have both recorded at least 100mm.

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The rainfall totals represent the whole of England and Wales and not just the CET zone. :)

By the end of today, going of Philip's value, it will be in the top 50 wettest Junes recorded.

If it records 100mm, it will be the first time since 1830 that May and June have both recorded at least 100mm.

OK - i though that was just the sun - still be a wet day i think

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Still on track although the cooling over the next 2-3 days won't be anywhere near what I expected (I thought a late May bank holiday type event may be on the cards) - Also WIB's little ridge for and the low minima it would have brought for Thursday am is now downgraded so I think we will now run out to about 15.4C or maybe 15.5C

Rainfall figures should be kept an eye on. Todays rain is mainly over the CET zone, so it could be a very high daily total - pushing the month into the top 10% category with around a week to go

Not sure Stu re temperatures, I don't think it's that clear cut yet. I certainly don't see any early ridge, though there is some modification in the flow: precisely the kind of detail that is only ever detected at the last minute (we have seen it repeatedly in N'ly projections for months and months now). I think 15.2 was always over egging it slightly, but 15.3 is still on the cards (15.2 can't positively be excluded yet), particularly if we happen to get a clear night with slow air. The other factor is the location of the divide between polar and tropical air from Thursday on. It's straddling CETland on current projections, as and when it moves either way from this things may move up or down the odd tenth. The form book says mild, so 15.3-15.4, but past performance isn't any absolute indicator.

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I certainly don't see any early ridge,

No it's gone now but it was there on Saturday for Thursday morning and was predicting very low temps for Thursday morning followed by a nice sunny day, promting WIB to declare summer started on Thursday.

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Some high temps today 17 at Staverton and 18 at Birmingham. Trying to figure out what will happen to the CET today will be tricky as it will all be down to local synoptic conditions at the 3 sites.

Anybody's atm.

Matt

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Some high temps today 17 at Staverton and 18 at Birmingham. Trying to figure out what will happen to the CET today will be tricky as it will all be down to local synoptic conditions at the 3 sites.

Anybody's atm.

Matt

One of the sites is probably just about in that warm sector tongue; that will probably put the composite at around 14 max, and 11 min. Today and tomorrow should see the month to date drop by 0.3 or 0.4, depending on where we are with rounding at present.

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I'm still happy with my mid-month punt of 14.9C to 15.3C, this looks reasonable to me, though on the upper end of the prediction.

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I'm still happy with my mid-month punt of 14.9C to 15.3C, this looks reasonable to me, though on the upper end of the prediction.

Though like me you went for 16C+ in the real competition (I like the idea of having halfway corrections, but not really part of the rules!).

Yes, today warmer than expected in some locations so could be curious (Pershore also took 18C). A definitie downward spell but perhaps by not as much as one might think.

David Snow - just saw your earlier message. Completely unnecessary young man. Let's stick to CET discussions on here.

The rainfall levels are going to be astonishing I suspect Kevin?

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Though like me you went for 16C+ in the real competition (I like the idea of having halfway corrections, but not really part of the rules!).

Yes, today warmer than expected in some locations so could be curious (Pershore also took 18C). A definitie downward spell but perhaps by not as much as one might think.

David Snow - just saw your earlier message. Completely unnecessary young man. Let's stick to CET discussions on here.

The rainfall levels are going to be astonishing I suspect Kevin?

W.I.B. Cant see a problem with david snows accurate comment, nor did the moderators it would seem. Anyhow, :) my guess at 14.5, looking too low now

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nor did the moderators it would seem

They wouldn't unless someone complained. It was too childish for that, but also inaccurate. My comment about the hours of sunshine was completely reasonable, as I think you know full well deep down.

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They wouldn't unless someone complained. It was too childish for that, but also inaccurate. My comment about the hours of sunshine was completely reasonable, as I think you know full well deep down.

That is totally inaccurate,the moderators will remove posts without a complaint, if they deem them to be off topic or unfair. Q.E.D.Comments regarding sunshine hours are fine. I think you know deep down the problem stems from your attitude.ps. Could you show john holmes the respect he thoroughly deserves.

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Though like me you went for 16C+ in the real competition (I like the idea of having halfway corrections, but not really part of the rules!).

The rainfall levels are going to be astonishing I suspect Kevin?

My Mid-Month punt was not an official change, so no points deductions will be nessesary, it was mearly a reflection of what was happening.

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W.I.B. Cant see a problem with david snows accurate comment

Well, I can, but originally decided not to comment as I though it best ignored. However, since it has now been raised again.....I thought it was not only unfair but very strange.

WIB had just accepted - with humility, good grace and humour - a correction from two of us on a stupid error in his sunshine calculation. David Snow's response was a complaint about WIB being "such an irritating, argumentative person (who) constantly disparages other opinions". A rather odd reaction, I thought, to someone admitting a mistake?! :unsure:

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Only a 0.1 drop yesterday now down to 15.8C, but approaching the 200% mark for rainfall.

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WIB had just accepted - with humility, good grace and humour - a correction from two of us on a stupid error in his sunshine calculation. David Snow's response was a complaint about WIB being "such an irritating, argumentative person (who) constantly disparages other opinions". A rather odd reaction, I thought, to someone admitting a mistake?! :unsure:

Thanks osmposm.

As pointed out above the CET on Manley is at 15.8C with rainfall at just under 200%. The CET maxima yesterday was 15C. There's now a big discrepancy between the minima (2.8C+) and maxima (0.9C+). Not sure how much it will fall from here.

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Thanks osmposm.

As pointed out above the CET on Manley is at 15.8C with rainfall at just under 200%. The CET maxima yesterday was 15C. There's now a big discrepancy between the minima (2.8C+) and maxima (0.9C+). Not sure how much it will fall from here.

Agreed, I stated yesterday that yesterdays event whilst very wet, was knowwhere near as cold as originally predicted. We still have a couple of days of where it should come in below the baseline, so I would expect around 15.5C to be par from here.

As for rainfall - unlikely to be the wettest June ever nationwide, although the nature of the downpours has been as such that many local stations will see records broken. Here in London, whilst we have seen wet weather, it has felt mainly dull as we have avoided the real deluges.

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The only reasomn why the GFS was a little low for some places was because it rather overdid the size of the frontal zone and had the area of heavy rain far too wide, hence why it ave some places maxes of 13-14C that in truth weren't actually in the frontal system and so got the higher maxes, thats all, it was very close to what was predicted in the frontal system.

Min temps are a good 2C higher then progged today and so the min mean will probably be about 9C while the beeb/UKMO both were about 1-2C too high generally, so the average overall will probably come out very close to yesterdays, maybe a touch down.

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.... Here in London, whilst we have seen wet weather, it has felt mainly dull as we have avoided the real deluges.

Although, when it comes to any of the key variables, London (and the SE corner) tends to be much more temperate than the rest of the UK. It is sunnier, drier and milder: fair reflection of proximity to the continent and being very much in the shadow of uplands to the W and NW.

As you say, nothing like as cold yesterday as GFS progged, and though I very much doubted the degree of cold crudely projected by the GFS max-min (which I suspect many refer to) I am surprised that it was quite so "uncool" yesterday. That warm tongue to the SE just ahead of the LP area probably did the damage in the SE station.

From here Friday and Saturday don't look like dragging things down any lower, they might even nudge things back up by 0.1 cumulatively. Wed-Thur-Fri mathematically will struggle to impact by more than 0.5, so 15.4-15.5 is perhaps the window at present: the error from there is definitely downside, not upside, though. 15.3-15.5 is the broad window.

I don't believe this is true at all regarding temps - places like Plymouth, Southampton actually came in below expectation, whilst the areas in the unfortunate rain/flooded zone were very much as predicted. The areas with slightly higher temps (around 16c) were, predictably, in the brighter areas - but such temps ares still very much below normal for late June. On this overall basis I don't think a claim can be made that the coolness didn't materialise.

The only innacuracies from GFS were in depicting exactly where the rain zone/lowest temps were to be found - but in any given situation there are bound to be slight variations. Whilst the wettest areas in the north of England were called correctly the fact that the (still relatively wet) rain zone fell further SW than expected explains neatly why south coast areas were cooler than expected.

Temps look to continue rather on the cool side of average for the forseeable future

Tamara

Tamara, reading that I'm starting to think I occupy a parallel universe. The GFS at the weekend had extensive 9,10,11s for much of England. Yesterday was in no way a reflection of that generally. At my northern, upland location, in very much the worst of yesterday's weather, we still managed 11. It was NEVER likely to rain everywhere, all day. The fact is that the GFS temperature grid is at best a cruse indicator, and defending it as if it had, or ever could have, slide rule accuracy just perpetuates the problem / myth / delusion. Of course it was milder where it was brighter, but I'm fairly sure that if you go back and peruse the discussion over the weekend, and before, that was precisely the point hat WiB, myself, and one or two others were making when we said that GFS (on the max-min plot) over progged the cold. Applying a rough mix of art and science to the 850 projection tends to provide a more representative, if broader, window, particularly given the fact that GFS, out of necessity, will use linear programming to derive a surface grid. The reality is ALWAYS much more complex, and fickle.

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Just to clear up the confusion between Tamara and SF and myself,

I was basing my predictions on the progged temps from 4-5 days ago - not just the min/max charts but the contoured temperature charts also.

These were showing a May bank holiday type of event, which temperature wise, clearly this wasn't that type of event.

However nearer the event, the GFS temps rose and were not that far off at 1-2 days notice although there were local differences.

In summary, all your comments are noted and I don't disagree with any in particular.

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Just to clear up the confusion between Tamara and SF and myself...

...I'm not "confused"! nonplussedlooksmileythingy...

To be honest Stu, ANY temperature charts are going to be loose projections, be they the 2m, the max-min or the surface contour. The various charts are ALL derived from the same data, so they will all contain the same inherent fallibility, not least of which by the way, at 5 days out, is the appearance of late but fundamental detail. As we often observe with winter marginal events (or we did, when we used to get them), 100 miles here or there can make all the difference, but 100 miles at 5 days is like trying to shoot a golf ball into a standard hole from about a mile away.

The tendency for GFS to over-egg cold is perhaps better illustrated by what happens (or not) today. The set up today definitely IS very similar to what was progged afew days ago, and then the projection was around 12-13. I haven't checked what's going on today yet, but I would bet it tops out at 14 or 15 in the Midlands through 16-17 fairly widely across central and southern England.

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Met Office Hadley site down to 15.6C today (Jun 1 - 25)

What does it take to get a below average month these days? I would imagine that in the not to distant fute anything below 16c in June will be considered way below average, crazy!. :)

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