June C.E.T

[Lettucing Gutted]

The Graph section on Climate UK illustrates the impact of high night time minima:

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0706.htm

Unfortunately high night time minima benefit very few people, which doesn't help with the perception of June not being all that great temperature wise.

I don't like high nighttime temperatures ether. They only benefit those who want to have a party outside at night. I can't sleep very well with muggy nighttime temperatures.

[TEITS]

The Graph section on Climate UK illustrates the impact of high night time minima:

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0706.htm

Unfortunately high night time minima benefit very few people, which doesn't help with the perception of June not being all that great temperature wise.

Spot on.

[Weather-history]

For Eastern Scotland and perhaps NE England April being sunnier than June is looking almost a certainty now. There is an outside possibility that April may also be warmer than June in the most Easterly parts of the North

I think its a dead cert now for England and Wales as well. Also looks highly likely the first June since 1999 where nowhere records a maximum of 30.0C+ and also to be the wettest June since 1999 for England and Wales.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just out of interest, I wonder if many places managed a sunnier February and/or November than July in 1988?

[West is Best]

I think its a dead cert now for England and Wales as well. Also looks highly likely the first June since 1999 where nowhere records a maximum of 30.0C+ and also to be the wettest June since 1999 for England and Wales.

April was a truly freakish month though Kevin - a complete outlier. What was the final sunshine hour figure in the CET zone for April?

At the moment, apart from the mean temp, there's nothing particularly out of the ordinary about this June.

Edited June 20, 2007 by West is Best

[SP1986]

Looking at the past 5 months, and the first half of June, there does seem to be a massive warming trend. To see June way above average it terms of CET yet no real driver, no extremes of warm temperature, lack of sunshine, more rain, even night time minimas rarely push a month up to 2C+ (up to this point), so are we looking at a more balanced climate which = constant warming or is this year just a freak occurrence so far, I wonder... After all nothing seems to be out of the norm. (perhaps we're all getting too used to the warming?)

[West is Best]

Looking at the past 5 months, and the first half of June, there does seem to be a massive warming trend. To see June way above average it terms of CET yet no real driver, no extremes of warm temperature, lack of sunshine, more rain, even night time minimas rarely push a month up to 2C+ (up to this point), so are we looking at a more balanced climate which = constant warming or is this year just a freak occurrence so far, I wonder... After all nothing seems to be out of the norm. (perhaps we're all getting too used to the warming?)

Yes I think this is spot on Stephen (nice to see!).

It is remarkable that there's nothing out of the ordinary in terms of high maxima, sunshine, rainfall and yet we are 2.3C above average. It's not even just the minima (which are 3C above). Even the maxima is just under 2C above average.

I do think the west did very well out of the earlier spell so I'd be very interested in a sunshine and temp breakdown of east vs west. The cloud cover off the north sea though, which pegged back the maxima in the east, also kept the minima there up.

[SP1986]

Yes I think this is spot on Stephen (nice to see!).

It is remarkable that there's nothing out of the ordinary in terms of high maxima, sunshine, rainfall and yet we are 2.3C above average. It's not even just the minima (which are 3C above). Even the maxima is just under 2C above average.

I do think the west did very well out of the earlier spell so I'd be very interested in a sunshine and temp breakdown of east vs west. The cloud cover off the north sea though, which pegged back the maxima in the east, also kept the minima there up.

Getting the East v West would be interestingly. Historically of course west has lower day maxes and higher night mins (at sea level), whereas the east has higher day maxes and lower night mins. Also I may be wrong as I was on holiday for a good portion of mid-June, but the main wind direction has been SE? but not within any particularly warm airmass (850hPa averaging around 6-8C). The only other place I know that can keep a high temperature profile in just 6-7C 850hPa is the Azores. Lots of questions to be asked (but not necessarily answered) here.

[Weather-history]

April was a truly freakish month though Kevin - a complete outlier. What was the final sunshine hour figure in the CET zone for April?

It was but April has been sunnier than June in the past, I was merely pointing out a fact about this June will join that list.

Just out of interest, I wonder if many places managed a sunnier February and/or November than July in 1988?

Had a quick look and I don't think so unless it is at a very local level.

[Stratos Ferric]

The Graph section on Climate UK illustrates the impact of high night time minima:

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0706.htm

Unfortunately high night time minima benefit very few people, which doesn't help with the perception of June not being all that great temperature wise.

It is easy to over emphasise this. Yes, minima are high, but it is very from from being the whole story. 40% of the anomaly this month is still daytime, and at +2C above norm it's very noteworthy, the moreso given that the sets ups and conditions for most of this month have not, on the face of it, been particularly warm. Yet more grist in the "it's hard to get a remotely cool month any more" mill.

[snowray]

I cant help but think that its the higher sea temps that we have these days that are causing a lot of this "Extra" warming, simple as that, and all the extra energy which is created in the atmosphere as result of this creates more in the way of weather extremes like last week and last nights storms.

In this small part of the country I must say I that I can't complain so far this June, no heat waves but none the less lots of dry weather, the garden is always bone dry, yesterday was very warm at 25c max, today sunny spells and up to 21c so far, even last nights storms only produced a 10 min heavy burst, would have liked a bit more then that realy.

Edited June 20, 2007 by snowray

[Stratos Ferric]

Looking at the past 5 months, and the first half of June, there does seem to be a massive warming trend. To see June way above average it terms of CET yet no real driver, no extremes of warm temperature, lack of sunshine, more rain, even night time minimas rarely push a month up to 2C+ (up to this point), so are we looking at a more balanced climate which = constant warming or is this year just a freak occurrence so far, I wonder... After all nothing seems to be out of the norm. (perhaps we're all getting too used to the warming?)

The main point is nowadays that we don't get cold any more. The warm is no warmer than it ever was, but when it's all you get it's all you end up with. Even a cursory glance at Philip's charts shows how rarely we get a day when the max and min are both below average. What's more, particularly during winter, there are occasions when the minima breaches the mean max line; seldom as never is the reverse true nowadays.

I say it again, it's not that the warm is getting warmer, it's just that we never get sustained cold, and rarely even point instances.

I cant help but think that its the higher sea temps that we have these days that are causing a lot of this "Extra" warming, simple as that, and all the extra energy is created in the atmosphere as result of this creates more in the way of weather extremes like last week and last nights storms.

...

There's no doubt that that's part of the story, however, with temps in the NA falling back as low as they've been for a while this coming summer represents an interesting test. Mild and wet may well be a strong candidate for prevailing conditions this summer.

[Weather-history]

Could be the dullest May-June period for England and Wales since 1991.

[Stu_London]

The anomoly for June (and to a lesser extent May, also) is in my opinion down to a combination of a number of factors, all of which have been discussed in the last few posts and I will list again for ease of reference: -

1) Average sypnotics = slightly above average temperatures

Don't want to get into an argument as to why this is - some say it is down to SSTAs and others to GW generally - probably down to a bit of both in my opinion.

2) High Night time minima

Whilst remembering that the days are warmer too and not getting this point out of perspective, it cannot be disputed that May and June have been in the well above average for night time temps. My subjective view on this is that our weather is becoming more humid and whilst this generally affected July to September generally, this is spreading to months either side of this window. It may have a bearing on why June/October have warmed later than other months if this is a relatively new phenomenom and is something I intend to research further.

3) Not as many cold snaps

It would be unusual indeed for an average month to be average all the way through - you would expect some colder interludes and some warmer interludes. It does seem that in the warmer period we are experiencing (which I consider to be post 1988) that cooler/colder than average interludes have become much more of a rarity. This has been unevenly progressive since 1988. There are varying views why this is for another conversation, but it does seem to be fact. For example, most years would have produced and air frost in the CET zone in May and a ground frost in June - not this year.

4) Showery regime

Perhaps slightly tenuous this one, but a showery regime does seem to promote spikes in the maximum temperature if the sun happens to be out during the warmer part of the day. It may be a factor in considering why the Net Weather tracker has been between 0.3 and 0.6 below the Manley figure this month.

If we turn to why things do not seem out of the normal (if you asked most non weather studiers, I am sure they would say June is average or even below - temperature wise), I do not think it is because we have become acclimatised (after all June has only warmed up very recently indeed). The reason why it feel so weird that June is above average is because whilst all of the above points are true to a large degree, none of them are dominant drivers therefore we can't quite get our head around why June is warm, when it doesn't really feel so.

July 2006 was the hottest month ever because we had 3 heatwaves - all dominant drivers in the statistics and therefore memorable. Winter 2005/6 was below average but because it didn't snow for some and there was no really severe spell it felt average or above for many.

Therefore it's all in the mind.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My punt of 15C looks a touch too low, I should have stuck with my orginal 15.4C punt, that looks like it'll be close.

Not with the current charts it isn't Kold....I'm right with you on 15C...looks quite achievable now.

BFTP

Edited June 20, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[West is Best]

Not with the current charts it isn't Kold....I'm right with you on 15C...looks quite achievable now.

BFTP

As there is unlikely to be any drop in the next 24 hours some pure mathematics would be useful on this point. Let's suppose the CET is 16C tomorrow.

21 x 16 = 336

To get to 15C by the end of the month on the Manley figure would require a CET of 12.5C from 22nd onwards. This is fantastically unlikely for so late in the month.

Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if the CET nudges upwards today and tomorrow under yet more warm nights. The overall CET is more likely to be nearer than 16C than 15C I'd have thought.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Also I may be wrong as I was on holiday for a good portion of mid-June, but the main wind direction has been SE? but not within any particularly warm airmass (850hPa averaging around 6-8C). The only other place I know that can keep a high temperature profile in just 6-7C 850hPa is the Azores. Lots of questions to be asked (but not necessarily answered) here.

It is possible that the Southeasterly was warmed by the anomalously warm North Sea. Hence sea level air temperatures were still above average despite the 6-7C 850hPa temperatures.

[DR Hosking]

I reckon 15.2 or 15.3 are deffinately achievable, if the forecasts are correct then lower 15's are looking more likely than higher 15's, looks like there could be 4 or 5 days where highs struggle to get to 15 or 16 degrees and lows of 7,8 or 9 overnight. This could cool the CET substancially.

[West is Best]

I reckon 15.2 or 15.3 are deffinately achievable, if the forecasts are correct then lower 15's are looking more likely than higher 15's, looks like there could be 4 or 5 days where highs struggle to get to 15 or 16 degrees and lows of 7,8 or 9 overnight. This could cool the CET substancially.

If there are 4 or 5 days where the CET doesn't get to 15C I will take off all my clothes and run naked through Exeter.

Not the slightest chance of it.

[Don]

Well, my punt of 15.7C for June doesn't look like it will be miles off this time after two very poor attempts at April and May!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I went for 15.7 right at the beginning as well- and stuck with it in the midmonth update to the forecast as well; I'm still happy with my estimate. I think 15.7 will be around the mark by 26 June; what happens in the last few days will then decide the final outcome.

[Don]

I went for 15.7 right at the beginning as well- and stuck with it in the midmonth update to the forecast as well; I'm still happy with my estimate. I think 15.7 will be around the mark by 26 June; what happens in the last few days will then decide the final outcome.

I was pleased you went for 15.7C, TWS. It gave me some comfort about my estimate!

[shuggee]

Interesting stats by Philip at http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

Eastern Scotland +0.6ºC

101% rainfall

62% sunshine

I can see that temperature anomaly being wiped out in the days ahead.

[West is Best]

Interesting stats by Philip at http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

Eastern Scotland +0.6ºC

101% rainfall

62% sunshine

I can see that temperature anomaly being wiped out in the days ahead.

Yes I'd love to see more of this regional breakdown point Shuggee and others. It may partly explain why some on here have been moaning at the same time as others have been wondering what all the fuss is about. I'm particularly keen to see if there has been a massive east / west split as well as that more normal south / north one.

[mushymanrob]

Yes I'd love to see more of this regional breakdown point Shuggee and others. It may partly explain why some on here have been moaning at the same time as others have been wondering what all the fuss is about.

i think thats obvious, with messy synoptics you get messy weather, some getting lucky and others missing out... its obviously frustrating if you want some sun/heat and others get it but not you!