June C.E.T

[Scorcher]

Why are people so surprised about the current CET? It's only more northern and eastern districts that have experienced predominantly cloudy and cool conditions so far this month. For those on the west side of the country this month has been very pleasant so far, with North West England around 3C above average for the month so far according to Philip Eden (this figure will have dropped today however). While many eastern districts have been plagued by cloud spilling in off the North Sea, London for example has still managed a rather warm and dry month so far. Don't forget that the cloudiness in the east has kept minima at or above average so the temperatures in the east have not been low enough to offset the above average temperatures in areas away from the cloud.

Edited June 14, 2007 by Scorcher

[PersianPaladin]

Does anyone know what the CET so far this month in Newcastle is? I would be very interested to compare with the national

Newcastle doesn't have 'a CET'. The CET is for the CET zone only. Newcastle has its own averages which the MetOffice collates - these can be compared with the CET to get a varied statistical relationship.

Edited June 14, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Thundery wintry showers]

Quite surprised to see the CET so high at this stage, however i now appreciate how mild the nights have been in the CET zone and the sustained above average maxima though nothing dramatic just sustained.

I can't help but feel cheated though by the figure as the first two weeks of June here in Tyne and Wear have been preety miserable and maxima really have been woeful.

It looks like the final CET for the month is not going to be a true reflection of conditions countrywide, maxima of about 11 and 12 is for June what we had yesterday and today and by the look of it tomorrow is useless...Perhaps the prospects of the azores high ridging polewards may ensure some cooler nights as we head into the second half of June, but who wouldn't bet at this stage of us perhaps recording a top 5 CET for June.

Does anyone know what the CET so far this month in Newcastle is? I would be very interested to compare with the national

Not sure about Newcastle, but Cleadon's stats are:

Mean Max 15.7

Mean Min 11.1

Mean Temp 13.4

In particular, the average maximum temperature here is lower than the CET!

[Stu_London]

Jun 01-14

16.3C

All eyes on the rainfall totals for the moment - still below average but rising fast

[Stratos Ferric]

...It looks like the final CET for the month is not going to be a true reflection of conditions countrywide, maxima of about 11 and 12 is for June what we had yesterday and today and by the look of it tomorrow is useless...Perhaps the prospects of the azores high ridging polewards may ensure some cooler nights as we head into the second half of June, but who wouldn't bet at this stage of us perhaps recording a top 5 CET for June.

Does anyone know what the CET so far this month in Newcastle is? I would be very interested to compare with the national

There's no such thing as a "CET for Newcastle". CET is Central England Temperature, and it's a composite value. It might seem like a pedants point but the juxtaposition of CET for "mean temperature" is a fairly basic misunderstanding.

Re CET being typical of the whole of England, it's never going to be. Quite why this chuntering goes on and on I really don't know. You might as well open a tin of beans and complain that the can doesn't contain oranges! I suspect that the CET so far is actually typical of much of an area S of Birmingham and E of the A1. At the best of times CET isn't going to represent the far north of England. A cursory check of the climatic mean for the UK (go see the UKMO climate pages) would show that much. This month, with occasions when the plar front has straddled the country, this has, admittedly, been exacerbated. It's unusual at this time of year, but not unprecedented.

[Iceberg]

Still 16.2 (+2.6C) at the halfway mark.

And before people complain of an east/west split.

SE England +2.2

E Anglia +1.8

Even NE England +1.3

Basically it's been warm everywhere.

[Glacier Point]

Looks like we're loosing 0.1 C per day. At this rate, a sub 15C finish is quite possible although the last few days of the month will tend to bump up the final value I think.

Edited June 16, 2007 by Glacier Point

[West is Best]

Looks like we're loosing 0.1 C per day. At this rate, a sub 15C finish is quite possible although the last few days of the month will tend to bump up the final value I think.

Certainly an extremely mixed model picture. There is still a lot of warm in the mixture, but 16+ won't be sustained even in the sub-tropical conditions, so you might be right. The interesting thing though is that in sunshine and showers the maximum can spike quite quickly at this time of year - which is one of the main reasons I suspect that the hourly NW tracker is so much lower than the Hadley/Manley figures this month. It'll be interesting to see how this pans out, but a cooler second half of the month than the first half looking pretty likely from here.

All eyes on the rainfall totals for the moment - still below average but rising fast

120% of normal now Stu http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0706.htm

Edited June 16, 2007 by West is Best

[Snowly does it]

Hadley appears to be dropping out quicker than Manley.

Manley 16.2 to the 15th but Hadley down to 16 on the dot to the 14th, so probably around 15.8 (poss 15.9) to the 15th

A finish in the 15s looks quite likely, we may see a 14 point something June if the minima tail off (this is looking highly improbable) - regardless I anticipate a monmth in the 'well above average' category - June is unrecognisable from its 90s and earlier incarnations these days.

[Stu_London]

120% of normal now Stu http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0706.htm

So well on course for 6 of the last 7 months to be wetter than average. With a bizarre saharan April in the middle of them

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think we'll look back upon 2003 (possibly 2002 for Shetland and NE Scotland) as the year marking a step-change to warmer Junes in line with the other months of the year. June, remarkably enough, was the only month that showed no warming at all between 1659 and 2002 in the CET series- the 1990s were actually cooler than the 1659-2002 average (14.1 as opposed to 14.3)

[Cymru]

I am right in the CET zone and can tell you that here it's been really muggy at night. Even when daytime temps are only just above average the nightime ones are very high. It's sure to have an effect on the CET.

[The PIT]

Outside the CET zone but we're still on the mild side as the overnight mins hardly moved. Rainfall wise we're now the 4th wettest ever recorded at 134.3mm. Missing out on the Showers today it seems and I think only a huge storm would bring us near the record but it's a remarkable month.

[summer blizzard]

Mr Data, could you tell us of any July's cooler than June or if there are not any, could you list July's that were within 0.5C of Junes vale??

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not Mr Data, but I'm pretty certain that July was cooler than June on quite a number of occasions in the mid-20th century up to and including 1970.

[Stu_London]

Mr Data, could you tell us of any July's cooler than June or if there are not any, could you list July's that were within 0.5C of Junes vale??

20th Century Occurances

1910

1919

1920

1922

1930

1940

1950

1960

1965

1966

1970

You will have to ask the real Mr Data for pre-20th Century occurances.

Bizarre that: -

i) out of 11 occurances in the 20th Century - 7 of them were with years ending in zero (did Spurs win the cup the very same years also)

ii) something that was roughly a one in 7 year event abruptly ended in 1970

[summer blizzard]

While i wont back it in the CET thread, some people may be intrested to know that one of my forecasting methods calls for a 60% chance of July being cooler than June, possibly by as much as 0.6C.

[The PIT]

While i wont back it in the CET thread, some people may be intrested to know that one of my forecasting methods calls for a 60% chance of July being cooler than June, possibly by as much as 0.6C.

Somewhow I think you're going to be wrong on that one.

[Weather-history]

Mr Data, could you tell us of any July's cooler than June or if there are not any, could you list July's that were within 0.5C of Junes vale??

Pre 20th century Junes that were warmer than July

1672, 1676, 1683, 1685, 1724, 1726, 1743, 1755, 1758, 1786, 1798, 1802, 1804, 1817, 1822, 1840, 1842, 1845, 1846, 1858, 1877

Julys that were within 0.5C of June

1662, 1674, 1679, 1683, 1685, 1693, 1695, 1710, 1711, 1713, 1723, 1724, 1726, 1728, 1741, 1758, 1775, 1785, 1788, 1790, 1802, 1804, 1806, 1829, 1836, 1840, 1851, 1861, 1866, 1877, 1888, 1889, 1891, 1895, 1896, 1910, 1913, 1915, 1919, 1920, 1922, 1930, 1950, 1963, 1966, 1968, 1988, 1992, 1993, 2000, 2004

Edited June 16, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Scorcher]

While i wont back it in the CET thread, some people may be intrested to know that one of my forecasting methods calls for a 60% chance of July being cooler than June, possibly by as much as 0.6C.

No chance I'm afraid. June looks like it might end up the wrong side of 16C and in today's day and age I just can't see a sub 16C July.

[summer blizzard]

No chance I'm afraid. June looks like it might end up the wrong side of 16C and in today's day and age I just can't see a sub 16C July.

Have you seen the latest model runs and ensemble agreement, June will be looky to come in above 15C.

Two of my four methods now call for a below average July, i will be backing a CET of 16.5C or 17C in next months thread however.

[Scorcher]

Have you seen the latest model runs and ensemble agreement, June will be looky to come in above 15C.

Two of my four methods now call for a below average July, i will be backing a CET of 16.5C or 17C in next months thread however.

If June comes in at or below 15C then your prediction of July being cooler than June by up to 0.6C looks even less likely. A sub 15C July?

[Iceberg]

Still 16.2, I think people are overestimating the coming decline of the CET, With temps around 19/20C at day and nights around 10-11 It will only very gradually come down to a mid 15's figure (assuming GFS is right)

[Snowly does it]

Still 16.2, I think people are overestimating the coming decline of the CET, With temps around 19/20C at day and nights around 10-11 It will only very gradually come down to a mid 15's figure (assuming GFS is right)

Whats more interesting is the drop in Hadley is out of sync with the drop in Manley - when Manley dropped 0.1 (actually just 0.05 but rounded down) Manley fell 0.2, then Manley dropped 0.2 and Hadley stood still..... Its at 16.0 to the 15th, lets see where it goes today when they update

[Stu_London]

Whats more interesting is the drop in Hadley is out of sync with the drop in Manley - when Manley dropped 0.1 (actually just 0.05 but rounded down) Manley fell 0.2, then Manley dropped 0.2 and Hadley stood still..... Its at 16.0 to the 15th, lets see where it goes today when they update

Manley did drop slightly (it is rounded up today) however to get any where near 15C we will need some really unseasonally cold minima or another May bank holiday event.

The rain average continues (and will continue) to soar ahead - now at 131% - remarkable because 5 days ago it was next to nothing

Sun is below average and looks like remaining so however there will be pleasant weather around at times.