June C.E.T

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I backing WIB running naked in the Glorious SW of England! Lol Tourism will reach record levels!! I think the CET will drop below 15.5C with 15c a real chance! Signs in early July that summer as some like it may arrive? :o

BFTP

[snowray]

I backing WIB running naked in the Glorious SW of England! Lol Tourism will reach record levels!! I think the CET will drop below 15.5C with 15c a real chance! Signs in early July that summer as some like it may arrive? :o

BFTP

Agreed, looking at tonights charts, if anything the cold snap is going to intensify with lots of PPN around and last longer too. Interestingly night skys could become quite clear in some inland and Western locations as shower activity retreats to Eastern coastal areas and some pretty low temps could be recorded ( Dont catch a chill now WIB ). If anything the AH is moving further away westwards with each run.

Edited June 21, 2007 by snowray

[sundog]

I wonder what the coldest recorded temp in june is for the uk?

[snowray]

I wonder what the coldest recorded temp in june is for the uk?

I was thinking the same thing, particularly for the 2nd half of June....Mr Data would know I'm sure. :o

[West is Best]

I wonder what the coldest recorded temp in june is for the uk?

-5.6C apparently http://www.torro.org.uk/severeweather/brit...es/mintemps.htm in both Scotland and Norfolk

(below 500 metres)

Edited June 21, 2007 by West is Best

[damianslaw]

Yes tomorrow and Saturday may well be rising CET days. Sunday will probably be a holding day. So no real tail off until Monday.

It's the same old story (or rather new story) that we so easily overlook: the minima. There are no cold minima in CET zone until at least Sunday night. Even if the max only goes to 18C, if the min is 14C it ain't gonna drop from 16C! Warm nights are the story here.

There should be a drop from Monday, but I can't see it getting down to 15C from here.

The word 'amazement' gets used to readily, but it is remarkable how warm this month is turning out given how relatively poor the synoptics are.

Yes if somebody was to glance at the charts for this month and who had not been in the country at the time, they would probably be quite surprised at the CET as it currently sits. But once again i re-iterate it is the cloudy mild nights we have had, thnakfully never too humid but just persistantly well above normal that have made the CET figure it is.

Some quite tropical air seems to have been wrapped around much of the low pressure systems that have affected us this month particularly for southern areas, and other parts namely the east have so far often seen the cloud building in from the coast.

I expect the CET to drop quite markedly from Saturday onwards thanks to some colder than normal nights.

[West is Best]

I backing WIB running naked in the Glorious SW of England! Lol Tourism will reach record levels!! I think the CET will drop below 15.5C with 15c a real chance! Signs in early July that summer as some like it may arrive? :o

BFTP

4 or 5 days with the CET max averaging below 15C? No chance at all. Might at the most get one or two days near or below that, but not 4 or 5.

Edited June 21, 2007 by West is Best

[sundog]

-5.6C apparently http://www.torro.org.uk/severeweather/brit...es/mintemps.htm in both Scotland and Norfolk

(below 500 metres)

Thanks wib

[Weather-history]

Hi Mr.Data do you know since 1995 what the latest date 30c has been achieved? If we pass June without a single station recording 30c it must be quite something?

Even June 1998 recorded a 30C somewhere in the British Isles. I'm not 100% sure about this but I don't think a 30C was recorded during July 1997 either.

PS. The chances of June 2007 being duller than March 2007 is increasing in possibility for England and Wales. Last occasion that happen was 1990. It very much depends on next week.

Edited June 21, 2007 by Mr_Data

[West is Best]

PS. The chances of June 2007 being duller than March 2007 is increasing in possibility for England and Wales.

.

I reckon the sunshine level could finish at 100% i.e. entirely normal Kevin. It was at 85% up to the 20th, and the northerly won't diminish the sunshine potential that much. What do you think? 160 hours is average in the CET zone I think? If so, very easily possible.

[Stu_London]

.

I reckon the sunshine level could finish at 100% i.e. entirely normal Kevin. It was at 85% up to the 20th, and the northerly won't diminish the sunshine potential that much. What do you think? 160 hours is average in the CET zone I think? If so, very easily possible.

Looking at Philip's graph the average would appear to be in excess of 190 hours, so getting up to 100% will be difficult, especially with the trough so close to the east

[West is Best]

Looking at Philip's graph the average would appear to be in excess of 190 hours, so getting up to 100% will be difficult, especially with the trough so close to the east

That's very peculiar isn't it?

If 107 hours up to the 20th = 85% I can't see how 190 hours = 100%? But you are absolutely right that on the graph http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/200706.htm

... it looks nearer 190 hours. Very odd. I suppose it might partly be explained by a difference between the CET and the E&W series but I wouldn't have thought so. Can it be explained by the mean rise over the final third of the month? Perhaps so.

CET still 16.1C by the way.

Edited June 22, 2007 by West is Best

[Stu_London]

That's very peculiar isn't it?

If 107 hours up to the 20th = 85% I can't see how 190 hours = 100%? But you are absolutely right that on the graph http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/200706.htm

... it looks nearer 190 hours. Very odd. I suppose it might partly be explained by a difference between the CET and the E&W series but I wouldn't have thought so. Can it be explained by the mean rise over the final third of the month? Perhaps so.

CET still 16.1C by the way.

Here is the maths

If 107 is 85% to the 20th

Then 126 hours would have been needed to get to 100% (107/85*100)

100% for the whole month (on a flat line graph) is therefore 189 hours (126/20*30) - roughly where Philips graph is

I think you may have only done the second computation to reach 160.

[West is Best]

Stu ... the art of telling someone they are completely wrong in a gentle way is one I could usefully learn. Thank you for pointing out my idiocy, with such grace! I did indeed completely forget to add the total to the 100%, rather than the 85%. Doh.

[osmposm]

If 107 hours up to the 20th = 85% I can't see how 190 hours = 100%?

Doesn't look far off mathematically, WIB:

If 85% = 107 hours, then 100% = 107 X 100/85 = 126 (rounded)

And if 126 hours is 100% for 20 days, then 100% for 30 days = 126 X 30/20 = 189

For the new figure to the 21st it's spot on:

85% = 113 hours, so 100% = 133. And for the whole month, 133 X 30/21 = 190

(Mind you, I don't know if Philip's calculation is just based on a straight-line from zero to monthly average, with notional expectations at points along that line. If it's in fact based on actual recorded avs up to the various dates, then you would tend to have higher daily avs from the 21st-30th than from the 1st-20th, as the mean distance of the days from the longest day is less. And if you understand that, perhaps you could try and explain it back to me !!!)

Edit: DAMN - I see I spent so long writing that last paragraph that I got beaten to the line by Stu in showing off my arithmetic

Edited June 22, 2007 by osmposm

[West is Best]

Edit: DAMN - I see I spent so long writing that last paragraph that I got beaten to the line by Stu in showing off my arithmetic

Well you were nice too!

9 days left to attain just over 80 hours to bring it up to average. Certainly wouldn't completely rule that out you know ... probably on balance unlikely but in some ways the synoptics are pretty favourable for sunshine now (after today!)

Edited June 22, 2007 by West is Best

[Weather-history]

9 days left to attain just over 80 hours to bring it up to average. Certainly wouldn't completely rule that out you know ... probably on balance unlikely but in some ways the synoptics are pretty favourable for sunshine now (after today!)

The next 9 days would need to record I think about 135% of the expected sunshine, to get to average. Doesn't look likely and today is certainly not going to help.

Sunshine totals are based on the whole of England and Wales not just the CET area by the way.

[Stu_London]

I have attempted to run the CET until the end of the month based on model output (with some human input) - I will refer back to it during the next few days to monitor its accuracy - sorry if that is a bore for people - if it is wildly incorrect, I won't persist with it into July

These are my predictions

22/06 16.0

23/06 16.0

24/06 15.9

25/06 15.7

26/06 15.5

27/06 15.3

28/06 15.2

29/06 15.2

30/06 15.2

Lets see if these are accurate

Edited June 22, 2007 by Stu_London

[Weather-history]

, I won't persist with it into July

These are my predictions

22/07 16.0

23/07 16.0

24/07 15.9

25/07 15.7

26/07 15.5

27/07 15.3

28/07 15.2

29/07 15.2

30/07 15.2

Lets see if these are accurate

But Stu........you dated it as July!

[Stu_London]

But Stu........you dated it as July!

I did indeed

[snowray]

I did indeed :lol:

B) You might not be far out there for July Stu if this lot carrys on much longer!

[Don]

I did indeed :lol:

B)

Sorry Stu!

Those figures for the rest of June look like they'll be pretty accurate.

[Joneseye]

13C: Noggin13.1C: Jim AFCB14.2C: Eddie14.3C: Paul Carfoot14.4C: Cheeky Monkey14.5C: Snowfluff14.5C: Mk1314.5C: Kentish Man14.6C: Terminal Moraine14.7C: Fishdude14.7C: Stu London14.7C: Phil N.Warks.14.7C: The Calm Before The Storm14.8C: Stargazer14.8C: Snowray14.9C: Optimus Prime14.9C: Mr Data14.9C: Somerset Squall14.9C: Ghrud15C: Anti-Mild15C: Kold Weather15C: Blast From The Past15C: Acbrixton15.1C: Mark Bayley15.1C: Tamara G15.1C: The PIT15.1C: Sunshine15.1C: Sub Zero15.1C: Great Plum15.2C: Jhon Acc15.2C: The Penguin15.2C: Mark H15.2C: Joneseye15.2C: The Underwriter15.3C: Steve B15.3C: Sundog15.3C: Jemtom15.3C: Jackone15.3C: Osmposm15.3C: Glacier Point15.4C: Snowmaiden15.4C: Geordie Snow15.4C: Beng15.4C: Soaring Hawk15.4C: Bottesford15.5C: Snowyowl915.5C: David Snow15.5C: Magpie15.5C: Thundery Wintry Showers15.6C: Reef15.6C: WBI need to control my language5.7C: Don15.7C: Mac15.7C: Pudsey15.8C: Vizzy200415.8C: Village Plank15.8C: Bessy15.8C: Paul B15.9C: Norrance16C: Cymru16C: Ukmoose16C: Duncan McAlister16C: Strattos Ferric16.1C: Summer Blizzard16.1C: Atlantic Flamethrower16.2C: Windswept16.3C: Calrissian16.3C: Summer of 9516.4C: West Is Best16.4C: Mammatus16.4C: Gray-Wolf16.6C: Iceberg16.9C: Ashley Nelis16.9C: High Pressure17.2C: Gavin P17.4C: Roger J Smith18.5C: Vince19C: Craig Evans24.5C: Disco-Barry15.9C: Parmenides3 2days l815.7C: FilskiDone lol

Evening all - thought it might be time to revisit this... I found this on page 9 and there were a couple of late entries that weren't included and I will add in a mo..Stephen Prudence 15.2 3rd JuneTWS 15.7 not 15.2rob28081991 17.2 3rd JuneRollo 13.9 3rd June

I have attempted to run the CET until the end of the month based on model output (with some human input) - I will refer back to it during the next few days to monitor its accuracy - sorry if that is a bore for people - if it is wildly incorrect, I won't persist with it into JulyThese are my predictions22/06 16.023/06 16.024/06 15.925/06 15.726/06 15.527/06 15.328/06 15.229/06 15.230/06 15.2Lets see if these are accurate

Seen as that is my punt - I hope so! Edited June 22, 2007 by Joneseye

[Stratos Ferric]

Looking likely we will end up somehwere between 15.5-16C now, I think the biggest drop will easily be on Monday. SF said about 20C in clear skies...problem is the models are progging quite an active front to be sat right acorss England and swinging southwards on Monday. with thickness down to 543-546 generally plus with quite heavy rain and uppers barely above 0C in some parts GFS probably won't be that far out on its maxes, maxes of 12-13C likely in the CET zone, mins anywhere between 7-11C would be my punt.

A very slow drop down to 15.7C after a slight rise tommorow would be my call now.

If it's cloudy, wet and miserable everywhere all day perhaps, but as things sit I'd still be surprised if the CET max drops below 15 on any day, and particularly so if it stays as low as 13. By the way, I didn't only say clear skies: the more critical factor, given this, is slow moving air. That stops the boundary form mixing and allows the near surface to warm more considerably than would probably otherwise be the case.

[Optimus Prime]

I would say my 14.9c looks very good at this stage.