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Day 14 Discussion


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    From the SPC

    ...SRN MT/NRN WY INTO SWRN ND/NWRN SD...

    COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND INCREASING UVV AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING WA

    UPR LOW LIKELY WILL LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN

    OF WRN MT AND NRN ID A BIT LATER TODAY...WHERE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL

    LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY

    /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN AND SRN MT...WHERE

    STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN

    THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S F.

    CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF UPR SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION OF CIN

    SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP E ACROSS CNTRL MT BY MID TO LATE

    AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY

    FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW IN SERN MT/SW ND/NW SD AND

    PERHAPS FAR NRN WY. 40-50 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR ON SERN FLANK OF UPR

    SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WEAK BUT BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW NEAR SFC LOW WILL

    CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THIS

    REGION...WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO

    LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER E INTO

    THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...WHERE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO AN MCS OR TWO

    WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR

    WIND/HAIL.

    Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Yep

    No rest for the wicked, 3 Car convoy today rapidly heading towards Rapid City for Lunch and then hopefully intercept some Supercells, Mount Rushmore is not far so would be great to get a nice picture of the "Presidents Heads" in with something nice weatherwise around it as well. Team leaving in 20 minutes, better get Ian up I suppose!!

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    You must love driving Paul..!! Well hoping to see some action today as its been very quiet on the 2007 storm chase forum for the last few days, heading towards Mount Rushmore, just 15-20km further west is the ongoing sculpture of "Crazy Horse" and when completed will be the worlds largest sculpture http://www.crazyhorse.org/.

    Anyway good luck on the chase today we will be following..

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    Current location and radar..

    post-1669-1179070267_thumb.jpg

    Current Satellite image

    post-1669-1179070371_thumb.jpg

    CAPE levels seem to be highest around the N/S Dakota border from mid afternoon

    post-1669-1179070913_thumb.png post-1669-1179070984_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    No change to my outlook in the day 13 thread. Tomorrow still looking very good, today more isolated but think you are heading in the right direction there. Did you know that the "Devil's Tower" as seen in Close Encounters is just across the border in northeast WY, in case you're only sight-seeing today? But I think you'll have one or two storms building up in that general area, around the Black Hills or possibly a little further west to north.

    Maybe they should have a Mount Rushmore II for the four worst presidents. Hmm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Starting to see some convection over SErn Wyoming, in response to daytime heating, some storms should drift East into SWern SD later - ahead of cold front moving in from the West.

    post-1052-1179077810_thumb.jpg post-1052-1179077788_thumb.png

    Strongest deep layer shear from jet streak further West over MT, ID and WY when max heating occurs over South Dakota (00z UTC Mon), so the best parameters for severe weather not overlapping this evening over SD. However, deepening sfc low over the Dakotas and surface heating in warm sector suggest isolated upslope storms are possible in the West of SD - perhaps some drifting over from SE/Ern WY.

    Tomorrow looking like an outbreak of storms further SE over SEern SD, NE and KS - SD will be under right entrance of strong jet streak (where Vort max/strong PVA will be present) around 00z UTC Tues - also sfc low would suggest some strong verring of sfc winds:

    post-1052-1179078713_thumb.png

    However, Nebraska probably looking best spot for severe storms ahead and along of cold front moving SE where greatest CAPE in warm sector is likely, though risk of severe weather looks like staying SLGT with vort max further North over the Dakotas which doesn't quite overlap the best moisture/CAPE in warm sector further SE:

    post-1052-1179079396_thumb.png post-1052-1179079382_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    Latest satellite picture with the NWS warnings show that convection continuing Nick.

    post-1669-1179095504_thumb.jpg

    You didn't notice any strange luggage of Paul's did you coz this has all the signs of his storm shield.. :whistling:

    post-1669-1179095650_thumb.jpg

    I think it will be late in the day if anything kicks off and way past my bedtime.. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Think ya right there Potty, txt the lads earlier havent had a reply so i reckon they're out on the lash..!!

    Was lookin at those storms 80 mile to the south of their last known whereabouts...

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    Possibilities there NL.. Reading Nicks thoughts for tomorrow, they might have headed down that way to be in the right place after following the storms.

    Then again, it may be a sightseeing day... Who would blame them?? :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Would'nt blame them at all especially the amount of driving hours Paul has put in!!

    Off to the North west of Rapid City in Montana first line of storms producing a fair few meso,s

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Some sporadic non-severe thundershowers developed late today across west central SD but the front located a little further west in eastern MT and northern WY has recently expanded and reached severe limits in several places. This front is producing some large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. It seems likely to accelerate and move through most of SD overnight, would currently suggest a location in northeast NE or far southeast SD by mid-morning at latest, tonight's position may not matter too much as sleep will be interrupted by loud thunder and lightning with this frontal passage. The dynamics are rapidly becoming more favourable and could become quite violent across eastern NE, se SD, southern MN and western IA tomorrow (meaning Monday, it is still Sunday evening here). :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Hi Guys

    Bit of a nightmare of a Chase really, althought the scenery was breathtaking. Hardly got any photos at all, as we chased all the way to near Billings (Montana) and ended up in Gillette (Wyoming) at about 130am Mountain Daylight Time (7 Hours behind now) The highlight of the day was seeing a brief LP Supercell develop at about 7pm and feeling the temperature drop from 85f to 50f in about 20 minutes, we also took on some quarter sized hail of which I will upload video of (Just for Stewart) :D when the Internet connection is a little stronger. Really tough to chase up here and would have to cross Montana off my list of States to Chase, no roads for 100's of miles and mountainous Pine forests do not make for good chases. Totalled about 650 miles yesterday taking the 3 days since Friday to 1,756.

    Will upload the pics i did get in a few days.

    Regards

    Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Better get a ten-gallon take-out coffee, hit the interstate and get across SD to eastern NE for today's action, I think the best tornado spot today could be close to Omaha NE, possibly a little north towards Norfolk NE, as well as Sioux City IA.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Lol,

    At least we are Interstate 90 Roger, that should speed things up a bit!

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Hey, you're not that far from the Devil's Tower, I got stung by a bee driving along the road out of Gillette on the way in there one fine day in 1984. Hurt like hell for about five minutes, probably led to the brain alterations so evident in later life.

    Keep yer windows closed. :D

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    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-15 09:37:16 Valid: 15/05/2021 0600 - 16/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 15TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

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      Cool with heavy thundery downpours through the weekend & next week

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