Day 8 Discussion

[pottyprof]

well how about a few chasers in the bar

I'd go with that.. one possible Supe that is just north of Lubbock.. Doesn't look to be getting its act together at the mo..

[MAF]

[pottyprof]

Its breaking up.. Get to the bar..

[MAF]

looks like the main theme is the stuff coming in from the west, nothing too significant at the mo though. so i agree

head for the bar!!

[Nick F]

Looks like being a bustola crapola today guys and gals, looks like a bar chase around Childress, TX and a steak Meal after bagging our tornado yesterday. Been sat hear at Best Western watching Barons with nothing forming towards Red River area to East where outflow boundary and surface low were expected to trigger something. Stuff developed West near Lubbock, but has died out, some storms further South of Abilene don't look up to much either and too far to be woth chasing. Some interesting cells over Mexico border again.

EDIT: seeing some towers gone up very recently to the North, so maybe we may see something afterall, the bar chase could be called off for now, just gonna watch this one beforewe call bustulo just yet!

[pottyprof]

Looks like being a bustola crapola today guys and gals, looks like a bar chase around Childress, TX and a steak Meal after bagging our tornado yesterday. Been sat hear at Best Western watching Barons with nothing forming towards Red River area to East where outflow boundary and surface low were expected to trigger something. Stuff developed West near Lubbock, but has died out, some storms further South of Abilene don't look up to much either and too far to be woth chasing. Some interesting cells over Mexico border again.

Go fer it!! The bar chase I mean..

[Nick F]

EDIT: seeing some towers gone up very recently to the South, so maybe we may see something afterall, the bar chase could be called off for now, just gonna watch this one before we call bustulo just yet!

Think we may go down the Highway to heaven 287 towards Witchita to have a look.

[MAF]

EDIT: seeing some towers gone up very recently to the North, so maybe we may see something afterall, the bar chase could be called off for now, just gonna watch this one beforewe call bustulo just yet!

will keep a look out too.

how far north nick? you still in childress?

[Nick F]

Sorry meant towers are to the South/SE of us, heading off very soon down the 287 to investigate.

[Mammatus]

Sorry meant towers are to the South/SE of us, heading off very soon down the 287 to investigate.

Great stuff Nick, keep us informed of any developments.

[MAF]

OK Nick. will try to see if anything developes further down the 287 for you

[pottyprof]

Sounds like sleep could be a bonus..

[NL]

Yeah i was lookin at that down there started to look like something ,but sadly looks likes its collapsing too by the radar image anyway, but you have best view..

[MAF]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...111&loop=no

latest NOAA radar for Lubbock area

[pottyprof]

The one near Lamesa is on the make..

Heading your way too Nick..

Bar still looking best move though......

[NL]

Think it could be bustulo my friends, bar it looks like..

[MAF]

latest from NOAA

[NL]

The one near Lamesa is on the make..

Heading your way too Nick..

Bar still looking best move though......

Those group of cells seem to be getting their acts together, reckon team might go an investigate.

[pottyprof]

Aye.. that says it all Mick..

Tomorrow's outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0301 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OZARKS TO SW TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM DAKOTAS SWWD

ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL BAJA. TWO PRIMARY

CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THIS TROUGH -- OVER CO/SWRN

NEB AND OVER NRN SONORA/NRN GULF OF CA. CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

PERTURBATION IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING

AND ACROSS SD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE NWRN MEX VORTEX WILL DRIFT ENEWD

ACROSS NRN SONORA. BROAD/LONG FETCH OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL

CONTINUE E OF THESE LOWS...FROM N-CENTRAL MEX TO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER ATLANTIC -- ABOUT 300 E CHS --

WILL RETROGRADE WSWWD TOWARD GA COAST THROUGH REMAINDER

PERIOD...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN OFFSHORE.

AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM NRN MN SSWWD ACROSS

WRN/CENTRAL OK TO W-CENTRAL TX...AND IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER TX AND

OK. SEVERAL MESOBETA SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT E OF

FRONT FROM ERN MO SWWD ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND N-CENTRAL

TX...AND SWD THROUGH HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.

...OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO BIG BEND REGION...

COMPLEX OF STG-SVR TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS

CENTRAL/SERN OK...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INVOF OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY NEAR RED RIVER. REF WW 252 AND LATEST RELATED MESOSCALE

DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM INFO ON SVR POTENTIAL OVER SRN OK.

WEAKENING CINH...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING OF POST-OUTFLOW AIR

MASS...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES

WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL NEXT FEW HOURS OVER PORTIONS

EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS LOWER PECOS RIVER REGION SWWD

INTO BIG BEND AREA. THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT

HOURS...EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY RETREAT WWD ACROSS LOWER PECOS

AND W-CENTRAL TX AREAS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE SFC...AS ORIGINAL POOL OF

OUTFLOW AIR WEAKENS AND SELY/ELY LLJ CONTINUES ABOVE SFC. ELY

COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ENLARGED LOW

LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOW EVIDENT IN DFI VWP...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL

POTENTIAL.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SHOULD REMAIN ENHANCED INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

NEAR RED RIVER...AS IT LIFTS/MIXES NWD INTO SRN OK. FARTHER

W...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED SOUTH

PLAINS/PANHANDLE REGION...HOWEVER 18Z MAF RAOB AND RUC FCST

SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE

SHEARS 50-60 KT...INDICATING HAIL POTENTIAL FROM MOST

PERSISTENT/INTENSE ACTIVITY.

DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN PRE-STORM SECTOR GENERALLY WEAKENS WITH

NEWD EXTENT THROUGH ARKLATEX REGION...WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS

LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE. SVR POTENTIAL THEREFORE WILL BE MORE

SPORADIC...BUT STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DENSE TO WARRANT

CONTINUING CATEGORICAL RISK.

SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS LOWER/MID MS VALLEY SHOULD

REMAIN ALONG AND W OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC ISODROSOTHERMAL

GRADIENT...ANALYZED FROM SRN IL SWD ACROSS WRN MS. THIS GRADIENT

SHOULD REGIN REINFORCED FROM E BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS EMANATING

FROM BOUNDARY LAYER CYCLONE OVER SERN CONUS...WHICH IN TURN IS BEING

REINFORCED AROUND NWRN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC VORTEX.

..EDWARDS.. 05/07/2007

Almost sounds like they've been forced into eating a dictionary considering their posts over the last week. I preferred last weeks posts.

Those group of cells seem to be getting their acts together, reckon team might go an investigate.

Hmm.. cooking with gas again.. Not sure that they will get far though NL.. would be nice if they did..

[NL]

Think ya probably right, about 70-80 mile away, bit of a hike like, but they've got

Paul Mcrae' Sherman at the wheel ya knaa!!

[Nick F]

Well we gave up heading SE down the 287 in the end -nowt developing, we turned back and are now booking in at the Best Western in Childress, some cells South and East of Lubbock that may head this way for a light show after dark. Bustola for the chase today - but was never looking great, but we will not have too far to go tomorrow for a possible chase - perhaps position ourselves further South.

Steak meal and beer beacons in a while

[NL]

Yeah Nick those beer beacons are something else,!! How much do they hold..?

[MAF]

Well we gave up heading SE down the 287 in the end -nowt developing, we turned back and are now booking in at the Best Western in Childress, some cells South and East of Lubbock that may head this way for a light show after dark. Bustola for the chase today - but was never looking great, but we will not have too far to go tomorrow for a possible chase - perhaps position ourselves further South.

Steak meal and beer beacons in a while

well get a rest mate, and the others too. plenty of good food and a few beers and recharge the batteries for tomorrow eh?

[pottyprof]

Steak meal and beer beacons in a while

You mean you found an abattoir?? Good move.. :lol:

Sorry.. I've been watching Twister again and the "we have cows bit".. OK its not funny..

[Louby]

You mean you found an abattoir?? Good move..

Sorry.. I've been watching Twister again and the "we have cows bit".. OK its not funny.. :lol:

I am watching Cat' 7 end of days and what a pile of poo it is too.

Just wondering how much sleep are you guys getting out there?