Day 7 Discussion.

[NL]

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ON

SUNDAY...THOUGH THE UPR LVL FLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN A BIT OVER

SATURDAY. NONETHELESS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST

WITH UPR 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG F DEW POINTS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE

CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. STRONGEST HEATING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM

THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF W TX NEWD INTO CNTRL KS WITH MLCAPES

APPROACHING 2500-3000 J/KG BY MID-AFTN. IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE

SUBTLE JET MAXIMA ROUNDING THE WRN TROUGH...BUT HEATING ALONE AND

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAP.

TSTMS WILL EITHER INITIATE ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT/ DRYLINE OR

STRENGTHEN ALONG EXISTING MORNING CONVECTION FROM CNTRL KS SWWD INTO

THE ERN TX PNHDL SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. ROUGHLY 45-50 KTS OF SSWLY

MIDLEVEL FLOW ATOP SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR

FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

[the-human-man]

hi, its me, if any of you remmeber me... does anyone know how the team is doing over in america???

[NL]

hi, its me, if any of you remmeber me... does anyone know how the team is doing over in america???

Allo young un, youre Paul Shermans nephew are'nt you?

Ya uncle and the team are doing just fine, talked to Uncie Paul last night

and he's having a good time if not a little tired of chasing 12 hrs yesterday.

[NL]

12z forecast

12 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0744 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK...THE

EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST CENTRAL TX INTO

EASTERN SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN GA ACROSS THE FL

PENINSULA...

...ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF KS/OK/TX...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS

MORNING...WHILE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS AZ INTO

NM. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE PLAINS WITH

ANOTHER SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SEVERE STORMS...

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND

ONGOING STORMS.

...OK/KS/WEST TX...

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM EASTERN KS - NORTHWEST OK - THE

SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY WEAKEN

THIS MORNING...ALLOWING ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO RETREAT

NORTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE

VARIES WIDELY IN WHERE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION WILL FOCUS THIS

AFTERNOON...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN FROM

DDC AREA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS

AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE

DRYLINE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S PROVIDING MLCAPE VALUES

OVER 2500 J/KG. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS BGS AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ISOLATED

STRONG TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH CAPE VALUES...LOW

LCLS...AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF GREATEST

SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HAVE THEREFORE FOCUSED THE MDT RISK OVER

SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

FARTHER EAST OVER EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL OK...FORCING MECHANISMS ARE

HARDER TO FIND. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST

CAP WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY

ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS JUST

SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR

ISOLATED TORNADOES.

[tinybill]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

alwa tornadoes high risk

[kold weather]

The uncertainty is because of the cloud cover that may be left over from the last batch of storms because the cloud cover that is coming from the huge line is bound to limit the amount of solar heating that can occur and so wil ltherefore peg the tmeps back and also therefore rather peg the CAPE back as well. The cap looks a little stronger as well thanks to subsidence from the storm line though given just how unstable the atmosphere is in the end it may not be much of a factor still. Also the outflow issue is already mentioned in the forecast so no point in going over old ground.

Still looks like a very unstable set-up nonetheless and like the lase 2 days the set-up is severe for sure.

Edited May 6, 2007 by kold weather

[pottyprof]

Looking like similar areas again...

[tinybill]

http://www.thekansascitychannel.com/wxmap/...298/detail.html

looks like kancess is in the fireing line again to-day

[pottyprof]

A tornado watch is now in force..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 243

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

920 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS

MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 920 AM UNTIL 600

PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

CHANUTE KANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SCENTRAL KS TO SWRN OK

CURRENTLY...WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO A

VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG

AND 25-30KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.,.POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS

WILL INCREASE AS THE STORMS CONTINUE EWD...PARTICULARLY BY MID

AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

...HALES

[AudMun]

Going to leave Ellsworth (Ks) in a little while and head west on the I70 & Then drop south through Dodge City going towards the Panhandles for later, Paul is taking us this way to avoid all the Tornado Damage into Central Kansas, currently have a Severe Storm about to hit us.

Stewart

[NL]

Lets hope for earlier storms , no more midnight storms, ....afternoon and evening storms will be ideal,.. ..Hows it lookin as far as cloud cover is concerned, if surface heating has a chance then i reckon the cap will be easly broken and large supercells will emerge. . Upper jet is progged to weaken but with midlevel coming in from the ssw at about 52mph and low level coming in 15mph from the sse we should see cells spinning into action..

Edited May 6, 2007 by Northern Light

[fantasyes]

hi Paul and team, this is Lianne, Ians niece. I hope you are all having a good time chasing stroms please be careful! WE ALL MISS YOU UNCLE IAN! okay well be careful and please dont go too close to the stroms ie, TORNADOS

love Liannexxx

P.S have lots of fun

[pottyprof]

Looks like things are smokin'

[NL]

Shmokin, .. behave yasell Potty otherwise Teits will get on ya case!!

Welcome Ians niece.. i'm sure he'll be careful being the sensible chap he is..

[TEITS]

Looks like things are smokin'

Yeah behave yourself lol.

[Roger J Smith]

Conditions appear most favourable for severe storm development today in western OK and south central KS. The front is showing signs of activation further south today and I would recommend heading for a spot west of Enid OK possibly the small town of Lahoma about 20 miles west of there. Panhandles likely to be well behind the activity developing.

This front will be intense from noon CDT (currently 11:00 am) to well after midnight, dropping slowly south and east to reach a line from about Tulsa to OKC by this evening and southeast OK overnight. Monday's storm chase potential may be maxed closer to DFW, I believe the basic idea with this developing situation will be to stay ahead of a slow-moving but intense line of storms. Opportunities to observe or film from the back end of this may be limited by its structure with heavy rain behind the zone of strong winds, tornadoes and hail. However from the west or northwest aspect this evening there would likely be dramatic views of sun-lit towering anvil cloud from about 50-100 miles away.

I suspect that today's activity will generate more F3-4 tornado activity around Wichita, Enid and later on just north and west of Oklahoma City. Although the complex will have cells moving ENE, the severity will be tending to drift south along the line with time. This is based on research parameters and the better dew point environment forming over southeast OK at present time.

[fantasyes]

Yes well NL, you obviously don't know my uncle very well, lol, and my mum reckons the american food looks like it agrees with him, he looked very at home in that bar they were in!!

[BrickFielder]

Not all that impressed with the set up today compared to yesterday with the low level jet a bit weak. Prime area is probably Kansas again although I think I would be tempted to head south to Oklahoma for tomorrow.

Monday could be a bit of a surprise package across Oklahoma with a surface low developing which is will create some large amounts of wind shear. A low level jet , upper jet not too far away and plenty of Cape. Not much Convective inhibition so I would be seriously considering this area tomorrow.

[tinybill]

Not all that impressed with the set up today compared to yesterday with the low level jet a bit weak. Prime area is probably Kansas again although I think I would be tempted to head south to Oklahoma for tomorrow.

Monday could be a bit of a surprise package across Oklahoma with a surface low developing which is will create some large amounts of wind shear. A low level jet , upper jet not too far away and plenty of Cape. Not much Convective inhibition so I would be seriously considering this area tomorrow.

reg Kansas just looked at the traffic cams looks like there a huge thundestorm looks like a lot of flooding there at the moment

[Stuart]

reg Kansas just looked at the traffic cams looks like there a huge thundestorm looks like a lot of flooding there at the moment

have you got the link

[tinybill]

have you got the link

http://www.kctv5.com/Global/story.asp?S=1035755&nav=1PuZ

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a terrific link for you today,

www.weatherimages.org/radar/kict.shtml

this will give the updated live radar between Wichita KS and Enid OK but if you click on "short-range loop" in the toolbar menu top left, you'll get the updated animation and warning boxes too.

Edited May 6, 2007 by Roger J Smith

[rc28]

Here's a better controllable webcam

Here

[Paul Sherman]

We are heading south to get the warmer temps, grungefest here in Central Kansas, the tornado damage we have passed on the way is pretty spectacular, trailers rammed into the side of buildings, snapped trees and power lines sheared off, roads flooded and fields have turned into lakes. Devastating scenes here in Kansas it has to be said. State of Emergency in Greensburg, we had to let a Supercell go yesterday as it tracked near to the town again, we later caught it near Pratt and had the most spectacular chase down red dirt roads, this is one video you have to watch, wall cloud and rotation crossing the road in front of us.

Paul Sherman

[kold weather]

There is a low level jet present according to the models but the 12z obs confirm that as Brick was aying, direction shear really isn't that noteable however right through the atmosphere, though as i said there is a jet with winds of about 30-35kts. cape is still pretty impressive and the cap isn't going to be too much of a problem once your on or to the west of the dryline. right now its not really shpwing itself BUT according to the models this cap is forecast to strengthen to the east of the dryline so that may limit the chance sof cells to the east but given the huge instablity that is present and already given the fact there is a lot of cells that are present anyway right now should mean another round of severe weather, maybe not quite so severe as the last two days BUT still very much on the severe side.

Right now i'd watch the Ok area, esp on the southern side, Satelite shows a line of CU developing along the frontal line over NW Texas which are feeding NNE in the same direction as the supercells that are already present, looks like the most photogenic route into these storms is from the south given the huge anvils along the whole front will make things quite messy.

As for Monday, well the models don't agree on this yet so best not to make the call, because the GFS has a 50kt jet streak at 850hpa while other models barely have a jet streak at all.

To all you lot out in the states right now, feel very lucky because this is one of the most active spells for a while!

Edited May 6, 2007 by kold weather