Day 6 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys, Possible upgrade to HIGH Today, this could be a very dangerous Situation, do not think i have ever seen a discussion like this, could be 12-14 hours of chasing with dangerous Long Track Tornadoes Possible.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL

SD...MUCH OF NEBRASKA...MUCH OF KS...AND NWRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM

WEST TX...INTO SOUTH ND AND PORTIONS OF IA/MO...

...ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS

EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SUCH THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. EARLY

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION

WITH 4-CORNERS LOW IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS AZ/NM

AND WILL SOON EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE

WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID DEEP CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE

CNTRL PLAINS...MUCH OF IT SHOULD BE SEVERE. THIS EARLY MORNING

CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS NNEWD

ACROSS NEB INTO SD. ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE

SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN NATURE...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS

THE TX PANHANDLE...NWD INTO WRN KS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO

BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEFORE 18Z AND THUS THE TORNADO

POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY MID

DAY. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG AND

STORM MOTIONS WILL BE QUITE FAST...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT ACROSS

THE MDT RISK REGION. LATEST THINKING IS INITIAL CLUSTER OF SEVERE

SUPERCELLS WILL BE HEAVILY CONCENTRATED ACROSS NRN KS...NWD INTO NEB

AND SRN SD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DISRUPT

AIRMASS RECOVERY...HOWEVER SOUTH-NORTH STORM MOTIONS WILL PROVE

FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY STORMS TO ORGANIZE OVER KS THEN

SPREAD INTO THIS REGION. TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX IS

SUCH THAT DRYLINE ACROSS SWRN KS INTO NWRN TX WILL BE WITHIN WEAK

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG HEATING

ALONG/WEST OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. NEEDLESS TO

SAY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH ACROSS

KS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE WILL DO SO

WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND

VERY LARGE HAIL.

DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...A SECONDARY SPEED MAX WILL

EJECT ACROSS SRN AZ/NM TOWARD THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE

OVER WEST TX. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WEST TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL

THEN DEVELOP/MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG FAVORABLE SFC BOUNDARY INTO WRN

OK/CNTRL KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...THOUGH STORM MERGERS MAY BE COMMON. LARGE

HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS

CONVECTION.

[MAF]

morning Paul. certainly looking good for some potential severe storms.

...ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS

EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED...

hope the vehicles are covered for hailstone damage

i like the comment

ANY STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE WILL DO SO

WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND

VERY LARGE HAIL.

hope the team stay safe

[Mad Murdoch]

Morning chase team,

Look very good for today, keep safe and keep them reports and photos coming..

[Greyowl]

Good luck for today guys. Hope you get to see some awesome weather. Take care.

[angela lynne]

good luck for today ,and stay safe

[NL]

SPC have issued high risk for severe storms today across Kansasand southern Nebraska

Wow , what a weekend, the team could'nt have picked a better time to chase the plains..

This weekend may go down in history!!

Be extra careful out there..

Edited May 5, 2007 by Northern Light

[Paul Sherman]

Guys, We are in a great position for today, Stevestorms team are just up the road in Pratt (Ks) and today could be VERY Dangerous, we have some amazing pictures from yesterday which i will try to upload inthe next hours.

Paul Sherman

[Greyowl]

Good luck Paul. Its looking good for you if a little hairy.

[MAF]

looking forward to them Paul

Well done to all the storm chasing team for keeping us glued to the progress of the current storm season out there

[Paul R]

Looking explosive today, good luck you lot, and stay safe!

[Roger J Smith]

Posted some ideas about today on the day 5 discussion, basically would say current satellite imagery showing new development in west central OK moving northeast, thinking that Medicine Lodge KS may be close to the best place to be for storm chase today. Good luck and stay safe.

[Paul R]

Might be interesting for some here:

http://www.ksn.com/news/local/7166856.html

Live feed from KSN weatherlab.

[rc28]

Might be interesting for some here:

http://www.ksn.com/news/local/7166856.html

Live feed from KSN weatherlab.

I cant get the feed to play anything, is it working for you?

*EDIT: It's working for me now*

Edited May 5, 2007 by rc28

[tinybill]

I cant get the feed to play anything, is it working for you?

*EDIT: It's working for me now*

cant hear a thing

[rc28]

cant hear a thing

If you read the text underneath the streaming box it mention sthat sometimes there is no audio. I was watching it a few moments ago and they just had a quick 30second broadast to mention a tornado watch had been issued.

Edited May 5, 2007 by rc28

[Paul R]

Another update then, very short one. Said that a PDS tornado watch had been issued, so there must a very bad day of weather ahead.

What are the CAPE values for today? Reason for asking is that last night I was looking at stuff about the May 3rd 1999 outbreak and apparently the CAPE values were up at around 6000 j/kg.

[Paul R]

First storms of the day starting to develop in NW Kansas.

[Paul Sherman]

Cape values of about 4,500 to 5,000, we are just about to leave Alva, we have an enhanced Cumulus field just out to our west, we cannot go near to Greensburg today, National Gaurd pretty much have the whole area cordoned off, also the roads North and East of there are pretty devastated, so will initailly head towards Pratt (Ks) and see how things develop, but expect explosive storms within the next few hours

Paul Sherman

[MAF]

looking forward to the next update Paul

Keep safe, and don't go upsetting those National Guards :o

[Paul R]

Good luck to you. CAPE seems bloody impressive today. Hope you can get some good footage. Happy chasing.

EDIT: Something just popped up on KSN live feed. Storm in NW Kansas, Norton County area is showing signs of weak rotation and could produce a tornado at any time. The watch still stands, but the forecaster said that this could change to a warning within 30 minutes.

Edited May 5, 2007 by emerson

[MAF]

NOAA currently issuing this for Pratt

Pratt (Kansas)

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

1008 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL CONTINUE

TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE DAY

PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION, FAST MOVING WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND

WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES. THE

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

[MAF]

NOAA Warnings page link > http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0232.html

[NL]

Yahow,thats some lengthy watch man!! 12 hours 5 mins!! Probably be extented like it was last night..

[Paul R]

Yahow,thats some lengthy watch man!! 12 hours 5 mins!! Probably be extented like it was last night..

Probably will be, already more storms breaking out in Western Kansas, a clear line of storms visible starting to intensify.

Edited May 5, 2007 by emerson

[NL]

Probably will be, already more storms breaking out in Western Kansas, a clear line of storms visible starting to intensify.

With temps in the mid 70's and only mid-day, can see some beasts developing quite rapidly..