Day 5 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys, currently about 1130pm here at the Big Texan in Amarillo, tomorrow looks nothing short of awesome, this could be quite a big day on current model outputs. Insane Cape and pretty exceptional shear, tomorrow should see plenty of supercells and great photo opportunities. We are currently targeting Dodge City for lunch, and then see how the day goes, but with hodographs showing insane opportunities and Supercell Parametres at about 99.8%. This could be an amazing day for our team, we will be updating all throughout the evening via text messages.

Feel free to chat away.

Paul Sherman & Netweather Team

Miles so far # 1,518 Miles

Wildlife Hit # None

States Chases # 1 (Texas)

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Really hope the guys are up for this After tomorrows risk, Saturday and Sunday sees quite a big risk before another 2 days after that. Chase Heaven !!

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0351 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2007

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WRN U.S.

LONGWAVE TROUGH WEAKENING DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 /SUN AND MON/...BUT

DIFFER BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AS IT BECOMES MORE

PROGRESSIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE

TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NNEWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE SRN/

CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP

LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING DAY 4 /SUN

MAY 6TH/ ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH THIS THREAT POTENTIALLY CONTINUING

INTO DAY 5 /MON MAY 7TH/...BUT MAINLY ACROSS W TX.

BEYOND DAY 5...MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT

BECOMES PROGRESSIVE WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE

WEATHER THREAT AREA ACROSS THE PLAINS.

..PETERS.. 05/03/2007

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[Paul R]

Good luck for the impending chase, sounds like it's gonna be a good one.

[MAF]

certainly looks promising for you and the guys Paul. hopefully the risks prove right and some decent storms manifest. stay safe

[NL]

Yes Paul, after so much uncertainty looks like exceptional conditions are now showing, dewpoints over 70 and cape shooting

towards 4000-4500J/kg.. A huge possability of bagging ya first tornado, and increasing chances that it'll be a biggun',

hope its an EF5...

SPC upgraded to moderate could even go high me thinks!!

[Greyowl]

Good luck guys and girls. Looks like today could be a good one.

[BrickFielder]

Much less low level directional wind shear forecast for today than yesterday. 300hPa vorticity charts suggest storms may not fire all the way down to southern Texas today but amarillo should be OK. You could be chasing a little late in the day though so you might want to head north.

Saturday looks like a fairly widespread outbreak of storms. Further east than today and todays convection and cloud may cut down instability in some key areas. Oklahoma Texas border may well be a good starting place.

[NL]

.

Public Severe Weather OutlookPrint Version ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 040925 COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-041730- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 AM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE SURROUNDING THIS AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALL STORMS IN THIS REGION ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. SIGNIFICANT VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT INDICATE THE RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..HART.. 05/04/2007

[pottyprof]

Looking like a fantastic few days to come.

I'm just looking at the GFS for Saturday afternoon over the pond..

Certainly a large increase in the Jet for the target area.

I bet it will feel like being in a Turkish bath. Look at the temps and dew points.....

Wind convergence for the target area..

A small amount of CAPE... B)

And not a lot to stop it once the touch paper is lit..

All we need now is for the models to be right.. B)

[south_holland_uk]

you lot are soo damn lucky. enjoy the big one and hope to see some cool pics

SHU

[Polar Bear]

Have fun guys!...

BTW am no good at USA geography - how far are you from Houston? miles I bet? ..just wondered...shall look forward to posts B)

[NL]

They're roughly about 530 mile from Houston PB..

[pottyprof]

makes it easier to work out...

[NL]

Latest from NWS/SPC mod risk moves alittle further west into Colorado and a little further North too.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0744 AM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER

PARTS OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...NORTHWEST OK...AND

SOUTHWEST NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA AND MS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO

ROTATE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG

UPPER JET MAX NOW DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION

WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST

CO. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS

THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS STATES. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK...WHICH

WILL SPREAD/MIX QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO KS TODAY. STRONG SURFACE

HEATING IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS REGION TODAY AFTER MORNING LOW

CLOUDS BURN OFF...RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG

AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN OK. EASTERLY

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT 50S DEWPOINTS WESTWARD ACROSS MOST

OF EASTERN CO BY MID AFTERNOON.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT FIRST CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE

FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CO NEAR PUB. THESE STORMS WILL BE AIDED

BY EAST-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW. VERTICAL SHEAR

PROFILES IN THIS AREA SUGGEST STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME

SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING

AS STORMS SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST

NEB. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS STORMS

MOVE INTO MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

FARTHER SOUTH...SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST

KS NEAR DDC SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS

OCCURRING OVER THIS REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A

STRENGTHENING CAP AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE THREAT UNTIL

THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY ON WHETHER THE CAP CAN WEAKEN

SUFFICIENTLY DOWN THE DRYLINE FOR INITIATION THIS EVENING. HIGHEST

CONFIDENCE IS FOR STORMS TO FORM NEAR WARM FRONT-DRYLINE TRIPLE

POINT NEAR DDC AND TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST

SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MORE THAN

SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND STRONG TORNADOES. RIGHT NOW IT

APPEARS THAT DEVELOPMENT DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO OK WILL BE MUCH MORE

ISOLATED WITH A VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. ANY STORMS THAT CAN

FORM IN THIS AREA WILL POSE A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. PARTS OF

OK AND NORTHWEST TX MAY SEE CONTINUED THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LARGE

SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LEADING TO

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

[pottyprof]

Thought I'd add this from kfor. Now the team are in kfor's broadcast area, there's a good chance we could see storms that or team will be on, especially if there are tornadoes possible. Kfor are one of only a handful of TV stations in the states that chase live..

http://www.kfor.com/global/video/WorldNowA...playerVersion=7

[Roger J Smith]

Just looking at current satellite imagery, an area of cloud in southeast CO near Limon looks like the seeding for today's storm chase target, the most likely area for these to fire to severe levels (after 2 pm CDT or 1 pm MDT which is 19z) would be near the CO-KS border so would advise mid-day position near Garden City or a little further west.

The storms that develop today should remain severe well into the overnight before settling down, then Saturday's action should be from central KS through central OK towards the region between Wichita Falls TX and DFW. Probably Norman or Enid OK, Medicine Lodge KS area would be a good starting point.

[BrickFielder]

Sundays prospects are a little further south.

Reports of Fog across the region may hold back storms till later in the day.

[Gorky]

Team are now leaving Amarillo - Time is 9:30am. Wish us luck!

[pottyprof]

YaaaaY.. Good luck and stay safe peeps..

[NL]

Good luck and bag a few, Potty that link ya put up, it goes live when impending storms arrive ?

Edited May 4, 2007 by Northern Light

[pottyprof]

Sorree..

Live coverage is from the home page http://www.kfor.com and select the severe weather banner that appears in red when things kick off..

[kold weather]

This has a real look of being a bigge IMo over the next few days, things are very good looking and I'd be suprised if there weren't a lot of tornadoes over the next couple of days, really great chances for you guys out there.

Firstly you have a strong jet stream arching in from the Pacific digging underneath a upper low to the NW, which is the base of the pattern for the next 3-4 days and which offers some really tasty options. As Brick said the low level shear has been decreased a touch from yesterday for the set-up today but make no mistakes about it, the shear should be good enough for some pretty decent tornadoes I reckon.

Cape is massive over Texas and OK, the only slight issue is that the area of highest cape is just to the north of the best of the shear, but even in places like OK 3000kjs of cape is EASILY possible if the cloud can break up, which I'll talk about in a minute, there really is huge chances here IF everything can slot in to place, its not quite perfect but there are similatries to big events in the past. Worth noting though that the WRF has HUGE CAPE present, in fact just under 5000!!!!

Soundings from the 12z suggests the convective temp wil lbe around 26C (close to 80F) and that this should be reached pretty easily today, esp given tmeps are already upto 60-65F and given there is still some cloud present once this starts to break up as the dryline edges its way eastwards slowly. Dew-points are progged to be up around 55-70F with the dew-points dropping away rapidly to the west of the dryline. The models may be a touch high and also looking at the dew-points it looks like the dryline is actually just a touch further east then the models progged on the 0z run, not much but a little.

Right now there is a fair amount of cloud present over the target areas as the air is still fairly moist to the east of the drier airmass however saying that the models are progging quite a rapid dry out that should be on its way now, with current trends showing a drop of 2-4% in RH per hour. The cloud that is currently present over KA and eastern OK should, like it has done over West OK steadily erode away as the drier airmass comes in.

Also importantly ther eis some capping present which should prevent any early cells going up and reducing the instablity, so when the storms do form they should have real clout and could well remain fairly discrete, esp the further west given the drier airmass and RH progged at around 30-40%.

Intitation could be fairly late in the day given the CINH that is present but when it does get going it could be quite impressive.

to all of you, good luck today, this could be a really big one if it al lcomes together and even for you Paul this may be one of the best setu-sp you've ever seen, though that may only last 2 days...

[pottyprof]

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL

PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO

WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS

WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

SURROUNDING THIS AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTH

DAKOTA.

A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS

OF THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND

BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS VICINITY OF THE

SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AREA. INCREASINGLY STRONG

AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL

TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID

TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG

DAYTIME HEATING AND RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN

EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN

OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE

AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA DURING

THE EVENING. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS

PANHANDLE. ALL STORMS IN THIS REGION ARE LIKELY TO BECOME

SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND

TORNADOES. SIGNIFICANT VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT

INDICATE THE RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER

SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER

RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 05/04/2007

[Gorky]

We are sitting in Dodge City at the moment, after a testing morning. One of the fuses blew on our power converters and the spares which we'd been provided with didn't fit. Due to this we essentially lost all GPS and Baron's data. We eventually found replacements in Dumas but lost over an hour in time. WE are now contemplating moving elsewhere as the dryline has passed the area. Just going through data at the moment.

[Paul R]

Sorry to hear about that. Hope that this doesn't interfere too much with plans for the rest of the day.

[pottyprof]

I'd think about heading further north or east.. But that's just my thinking..