1 In 8 Chance of Record Breaking Temps this Summer...

[Costa Del Fal]

Any more thoughts?

[summer blizzard]

The Met Office official forecast decreased the odds to 1/6.

[Roger J Smith]

If you've done any sports betting, these odds, one in six now, one in eight before, are pretty conservative -- and the Met Office presumably are not trying to make money for the house, so to speak.

Let me explain. If you're not familiar with sports betting, the odds you would be offered on a nearly sure thing, like Man U beating Watford at home, would be something like 1.2, or a 20% return on your bet. You would probably get about 5 to 1 for a tie and 10 to 1 for Watford to win, and the only reason the betting houses give odds that low would be to invite bettors in without giving away the shop, just in case. They probably figure the real odds are more like 1.1, 6 and 15, if you follow my drift.

Now the Met Office is saying that the chances of a significant heat wave like last summer or 2003, for example, is about in the same ball park as Watford tying Man U at Old Trafford.

That does not jibe with my assessment. If it were strictly a probabilistic assessment without any implications for public concern, potential egg on face later, etc, I would suggest the real odds are more like one in three.

And that's without access to any specialized research, any one of about 20 gurus on NW here would have their own odds worked out, either higher than one in three (meaning less likely) or lower.

My odds are virtually 100% certainty. I think the non-heat-wave bus has broken down on the M1 and isn't going to arrive at Old Trafford at all. Put another shrimp on the barbie and enjoy it, sooner or later you'll be basking in the heat like last July.

Think it will come a bit later this summer, at least the core of the heat, into early August more than July. I'm told that's when it can be the hottest and most humid in Europe, as with that 2003 heat wave.

I'm sure the Met Office believes their one in six assessment to be realistic, but then you have to accept that there is, according to them, a five in six chance that the summer won't produce significant heat. After the past twelve months, how many would want to put a lot of money down on that proposition?

[mushymanrob]

heatwave this summer?.... .

[Bottesford]

I'm sure heat will arrive. It's pretty rare to not reach 25c in a summer and I haven't as yet so it's gotta come at some point right? I'm often suprised by the speed of pattern changes - I mean take April. We were locked in a reloading pattern giving endless dry, sunny (mostly) weather. We all thought it was set for summer. Then May came and bang, a new pattern switched on which we've been stuck with ever since. Stalled lows & southerly tracking jet. So keep an eye out for that flip...

[noggin]

So they have increased the chance of a record breaking Summer, have they? Seems a bit of an odd thing to do, given that the first half of Summer (June and the first half of July) are turning out to be a bit ropey.

[The PIT]

Well with a warm June it's possible. It'll mean July and August will have to push on a bit it's certainly possible.

[West is Best]

Certainly been some extreme heat in eastern Europe and Italy. But aren't I right in thinking that wet conditions make absolute heat rise less likely? Don't you need a very dry run-up?

[Weather-history]

Certainly been some extreme heat in eastern Europe and Italy. But aren't I right in thinking that wet conditions make absolute heat rise less likely? Don't you need a very dry run-up?

My understanding is that dry ground/soils increases your chances of higher maxima. I'm not 100% sure on this

[DR Hosking]

lates met office forecast:

Forecast for the remainder of Summer 2007

Temperature

The Met Office continues to predict a high probability that mean temperatures for the remainder of Summer 2007 will be above 1971-2000 averages over much of Europe including the UK.

June temperatures so far have been above normal over most of western Europe. For the UK, despite an unsettled start to summer in many areas, the mean temperature to 24 June is 1.5 °C above the 1971-2000 average.

Although some warm and sunny weather is likely, forecasting models continue to signal that weather patterns of the type that can bring particularly hot and sunny spells to the UK will be fewer than in some recent hot summers (e.g. 2003 and 2006). This may be partly a consequence of the expected development of moderate or strong La Niňa conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Precipitation

Many regions of the UK have experienced well above normal rainfall during June. Indications for the remainder of summer favour average or drier than average conditions over central and southern Europe and wetter than average over parts of northern Europe. This suggests that in the UK a trend towards average rainfall is more likely for southern regions, while average or above average rainfall is more likely in the north.

cant see anywhere here where it mentions a 1 in 6 chance of a hot summer?? Al it says is that it will be above average for temperature. As we have seen for June which has been well above average temperature wise, this doesn't mean long hot summer, just that it will be milder than normal, indeed with the projection of average or above average rainfall you could say that a long hot spell is less likely. As already discussed on this forum it is now rare for the CET average for a month to be below average, so I cant see anything in this forecast other than the summer will be normal.

[beng]

Yes a wet ground will lead to lower maximums since for the water to evaporate, it must take energy from the atmosphere.

If heat is sustained for long enough though, the ground would dry and this could allow very high maximums into Aug if synoptic conditions allow (not that I see a particularly dry spell during this coming July).

Edited June 27, 2007 by beng

[Bottesford]

Certainly been some extreme heat in eastern Europe and Italy. But aren't I right in thinking that wet conditions make absolute heat rise less likely? Don't you need a very dry run-up?

Yes true. It takes energy (from the Sun) to evaporate water on or in the ground and this cools the ground (in much the same way evaporating sweat/moisture off your skin makes it cooler) leaving less energy available to heat the ground itself thus lower maximum temperatures. With all the moisture around it'll take a while to reach higher temperatures but it'd only take a few days to a week to dry the top layer of soil right out.

[Essan]

9 out of the last 10 summers have been warmer than average.

I think the original prediction was for a 70% chance of this happening again this year - meaning near enough a 3-1 chance that this would be a colder summer than we've been used to in recent years.

Note: it can be an above average summer and still colder than 9 out of the past 10 summers

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With slight tweaking I think the warm[hot] weather will arrive start of second week in July. This 'generally' will be the theme lasting into early August [but with blips mid July] but expect major breakdown second week of August with very high rainfalll totals for the rest of the month and unsettled theme, pretty much like this month. I quite like the METO summary....looks good

BFTP

Edited June 27, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gavin P]

The Met Office's dynamic model is going for a COLDER than average July-September period;, with the extreme heat remaining in the south-east of Europe

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso...terce_cat2.html

The MO dynamic model has a good record as well, so if your thinking this summer will have extreme heat, I think this is a very concerning development. Of course, that doesn't preclude warm or even moderatly hot spells at times, but with the Atlantic the way it is and increasing La Nina developments in the Pacific, I really don't think this summer is going to have any intense hot spells. Just my opinion.

Edited June 27, 2007 by Gavin P

[Gavin P]

Agreed Tamara. The met have gone against their model, in that they are still forecasting an above average remainder of summer, and with the residual warmth in the seas around the UK, that seems a good call, but otherwise I think the general pattern will remain very similar to the one we have had so far. Thats until the end of August, when I'm not sure what will happen.

The big unkown of course, is the hurricane season. That will have an impact, one way or another.

[noggin]

lates met office forecast:

Forecast for the remainder of Summer 2007

Temperature

The Met Office continues to predict a high probability that mean temperatures for the remainder of Summer 2007 will be above 1971-2000 averages over much of Europe including the UK.

June temperatures so far have been above normal over most of western Europe. For the UK, despite an unsettled start to summer in many areas, the mean temperature to 24 June is 1.5 °C above the 1971-2000 average.

Although some warm and sunny weather is likely, forecasting models continue to signal that weather patterns of the type that can bring particularly hot and sunny spells to the UK will be fewer than in some recent hot summers (e.g. 2003 and 2006). This may be partly a consequence of the expected development of moderate or strong La Niňa conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

.

It is easy to see where the media get their silly headlines from, it's by taking OUT OF CONTEXT things that the Meto have said.

The first sentence of the forecast refers to the probability of mean temps in comparison to the 1971-2000 temps but the silly journalists involved probably don't go so far down the forecast to read the bit which says that 2003 or 2006 type weather patterns are likely to be fewer (from which anyone with half a brain can infer that it probably won't be as hot!)

Journalists, eh?

[kold weather]

Very interesting to see the dynamic model ther eGavin, I think the sole reason why the Met offic ehave gone for above average is because of the remaining heat that is left from last summer/autumn/winter, the dynamic model looks very similar to my tohught, I really wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in eastern Europe sees record breaking temps, best chance looking like the SE Europe region right now as the jet has so far been a little too strong to allow the heat to get much further north like I thought it might.

[summer blizzard]

Their original forecast at the end of May said 1 in 6, this is the 27th June update, effectively hey are sayin its not going to happen.

[kippure]

With such a strong jet i dont think any heat in europe will have an impact on us this year.

[androcles]

I really hope it doesn't happen, like last July. It was an absolute pig to work outside in and I had to pack up at about 1300, go home, take all my clothes off, have a cool shower, set-up the fan for the wife(who was off work with a new knee for three months), and blob out for four hours whilst the fan cooled us. We were convinced Streak the rabbit was a gonner - all he did was lie down in his sleeping area. He wouldn't even come out for his run round the garden if we let him.

Hey Ho There You Go!

Andy

[Stratos Ferric]

With such a strong jet i dont think any heat in europe will have an impact on us this year.

Kip,

I think it's less a case of the strength of the jet than of it's unusually southward displacement.

[kippure]

Kip,

I think it's less a case of the strength of the jet than of it's unusually southward displacement.

Been noticing a change in the direction of these low pressures. Normally they swing from a west , south west direction, how ever they seem to be coming in from a more north west direction. Its been showing up on alot of the gfs runs. Is that why the jet is more south in postion.

[mushymanrob]

I'm becoming convinced that there will be no major hot spells either this summer. I think it will continue slightly above average and unsettled with a few drier interludes

Tamara

yay!...we agree! lol.. unfortunately as i want heat!

bottesford:- 25c must come? tbh it wouldnt surprise me if september recorded our highest years temperature, as the pattern is set for some time and it doesnt include anything settled and sunny.

Edited June 29, 2007 by mushymanrob

[Cymru]

yay!...we agree! lol.. unfortunately as i want heat!

bottesford:- 25c must come? tbh it wouldnt surprise me if september recorded our highest years temperature, as the pattern is set for some time and it doesnt include anything settled and sunny.

A record breaking September? Who knows it may carry on through October. Although we lose the light then I wouldn't mind the heat.