May CET

[ukmoose]

Been away for a while...hmm, things don't change much. No rain, soaring temperatures, high pressure all over the charts. All rather depressing! Any chance of a return to something approaching normality? Doesn't really look much like it.

Therefore, 14 degrees for me please for May CET. thanks very much.

Moose

[kold weather]

It's intresting to note all these high CET's, some of them go for the seocnd highest CET ever despite the models and ensembles seemingly going for a set-up with a more northerly dominated set-up, the only reason I go as high as 12.1C is because of the warmth of this month, otherwise I'd have gone for something a good 0.5-1C lower then that.

[sub zero]

Im going for 10.6 please

[summer blizzard]

Because we have had such a large anomoly against the mean this month and also a very dry month across the continent, i am going to add 0.5C onto my prediction to take into account surface heat, which means that my May prediction is 11.3C, which is bang on average.

I should also point out that according to my teleconnection forecasts, there is a 30% chance of May being cooler than April.

Edited April 28, 2007 by summer blizzard

[The PIT]

Can I adjust mine to 14C????

[beng]

I will go for a CET 11.8c which is +0.5 above the 71-00 average. I'm also going for a wet month with slow moving low pressure systems running across (or to the South) the UK giving some fairly thundery conditions at times

[Terminal Moraine]

As a believer in the perverseness and fickleness of the British weather I am expecting a spell of weather during May which will be colder than anything we saw during April.

My guess is therefore; 11.5c

T.M

[Mark H]

13.4 for me this month.

[WBSH]

13.3

[The Penguin]

13.0 for me please.

[cheeky_monkey]

my gut reaction says 12.3c

[Optimus Prime]

According to the current GFS run the period 1st-5th of May will have an average CET off 11.9c (not so warm due to some cold nights later into the period)

11.9c is about 1.6c above the average for the first half of May and 0.5c above for the whole of May.

[Roger J Smith]

Warm start, continuing hints of a cold spell later in the month, probably warming back to above normal values later on.

With all that to consider and no really strong indications from research variables, most of which are showing a decline through near normal at this stage, I think I will hide in the middle of the group photo again at 12.8 ... not another "record breaker" if that's the case, but there may be some very warm days near the end of the month again.

[mk13]

According to Manley's monthly CET data, we are yet to record a 14c May, thus statistically it going happen some time and now seems the best opportunity with April being so mild/warm. My punt for May is 14.0C

[The underwriter]

I think the CET will be a bit higher than April, but not by much, virtue of warmer nights but not warmer days. I'm going for 11.5.

[phil nw.]

12.1C for me please.

[Calrissian]

okay, its time I got off the fence....

After a strong April, May will continue to advance, although not as fierce as April's increase. I foresee a tail off in the increase to around 2c above normal, so, something in the area of 13.8.

Calrissian: May CET 13.8

[Bottesford]

Right my turn now its almost May...

Similar to last year but a little warmer & less wet (although not dry) - 12.5c.

[Glacier Point]

Double regrets...

1) Missing the midnight deadline.

2) Not changing my April punt 3 days in to a high 10.

Time to make ammends..

The temperature and height anomalies over the polar region show signs of a decline of the polar vortex, and, with no hint of cold or warming trend in the stratosphere, I think we will not see any forcing of the pattern from this quarter (somewhat an unusual conclusion over the last few months).

The SSTA for ENSO Region 3.4 show a small -ve anomaly but the modelling is split on how far they will drop over the month:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/curre.../SST_table.html

Right now those models predicting a 0 to -0.5 MEI index value look about right and May ought to tell us whether we go down the La Nina route or not during the Summer. Bottom line, probably a La Nina but not right now and ENSO neutral conditions for May.

This leaves the Atlantic SSTAs as the main driver, allied to natural intra-month variations. With the eastern Alantic showing +ve values and the western Atlantic -ve anomalies, we should see a mean trough-ridge scenario but with some less settled periods typical to May - in other words, an Azores High, Icelandic low type scenario characteristic of a +ve NAO.

The SSTA in the Atlantic show values +1 to +2 in the SW approaches and this is where we should be looking.

With both ECM and GFS hinting at the Azores High taking a dive or flattening a little for a spell of less settled weather, there is some case for a slight downward correction but overall above average between +1.2C and+2.2C. I'll side with 1.7C above giving a CET of 13.0C. Thanks.

[JohnAcc]

13.2 for me please.

Rgds, John

[BornFromTheVoid]

Put me at 12.9C please

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Update from moi....Warmth continuing first week then less settled but decent warm up for last 3rd...so increase for me.....12.40c. Not much science to that, my son is 2 today and he was born at 1240am hence my figure

BFTP

[Thundery wintry showers]

Can't see it being anything other than warm; 12.8C for me.

[Joneseye]

I will plump for 13.4C.

[Summer of 95]

16C.

I actually think it's possible to get that in May nowadays, with all these record-breaking months of late and SSTs well above average- if we can get 16.6 in September when days are much shorter surely we can approach or even beat that in May; like the September record the May one has been there to be smashed for ages (1833, and that came after a January almost 6C colder than this year's, and a March and April both more than 3C colder- surely the SSTs must have been way below 2007's?).