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May CET


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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
there appears to be a recent and noteable trend to a "rising norm" in the climate of the UK [P.S. and woefully ot: did ou see recipes for 2 salads as requested in the CWA thread?]

Fantastic salads! Many thanks!

My problem aside from the very good reasons for care that you also put (e.g. the less reliable nature of the much shorter mean) is in the word 'appears'. How do we know this unless we measure it against the longer mean?!!!! In other words, we're forming a hypothesis on the basis of another hypothesis, which is only proven by the first hypothesis. It's a bit like filling up bucket A by using bucket B which is gradually filled by bucket A.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

The England and Wales rainfall total for May 2007 has been published as 119.5mm, making it the wettest May since 1967.

More significantly, the 27th of May was the wettest May day recorded in England and Wales with a daily total of 25.1mm beating the old record of 19.7mm set on the 21st of May 1932.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I agree that the most recent 30-year period, ending in a year that ends with zero, is the standard "normal" to use in any discussion of climate statistics like the CET.

This average will always change somewhat every time it's updated and that's never been seen as an astonishing thing in the past.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
I agree that the most recent 30-year period, ending in a year that ends with zero, is the standard "normal" to use in any discussion of climate statistics like the CET.

This average will always change somewhat every time it's updated and that's never been seen as an astonishing thing in the past.

Hard to disagree there! I find the current disillusionment with the CET readings quite interesting. I don't know why these figures have suddenly become so controversial. We're comparing temperatures in roughly the same area over a long period of time. If we change the recording areas then the records are no longer comparable. The CET does not record temperatures in Scotland or Ireland; it records what it says on the tin. The CET is to meteorology what the headline inflation rate is to economics: entirely unrepresentative of specific price rises in specific regions, but an indicator of changes on a macro (or certainly UK) level. Why the controversy? If I want to see house price changes in the Midlands I look at the Midlands figures, not the overall UK house price changes. If I want to see the changes in temperatures in the North East I look at the North East temperature figures. Why the hang-up with the CET being unrepresentative?

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Guest Mike W

That's weird, becasue it was the 2nd warmest Spring on record, and thats using their own CET figures. It is joint 2nd with 1945 at 10.1, the record is 10.2 set in 1893. Here's the proof 1893: Mar: 7.2, April: 10.3, MAy: 13.1. 1945: Mar: 7.9, April: 10.1, May: 12.2.

2007: Mar: 7.2, April: 11.2, May: 11.9. Do the Maths, you should find that 1893 is the waarmest Spring on record with 1945 and 2007 both 2nd warmest. I find it strange that they would say otherwise when their own figures say different. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

Edited by Mike W
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Just been reading the official met office summary for the month and 2 things stand out of quite notable observation in these warmer times, the first

1. The cold day of the 28th, Heathrow recording its second lowest maximum temperature since records began in 1949 that is some feat.

2. Scotland recorded a CET only 0.4oc above the normal. This at least for Scotland meant that the month will be remembered for being preety average.

Other factors in some places it was one of the wettest May's on record.

All in all very different to April, if you had taken bets on any of the above happening at the start of the month i bet you would have been offered some preety woeful odds. I think we can say thankyou May you are some salvation in maintaining what little hope us lovers of seasonal conditions wish for.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I think the media are hyping it, if you read, it says that three of the last four seasons were record breakers and that winter was the 2nd warmest on record, this is not true, Autumn was the warmest on record, however last summer and this spring contained record months, not a record season.

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