Met Office Summer Forecast

[kar999]

LONDON (Reuters) - This summer is very likely to be hotter than average across western Europe and there is a 1 in 8 chance of another heatwave like 2003, which killed thousands of people, the UK's Met office said.

"There is a high probability (at least 70 percent) that mean summer temperatures will be above the 1971-2000 long-term average over much of western Europe, including the UK," Britain's national weather forecaster said in a statement.

"Indications for this year suggest the odds for a particularly hot summer, similar to those experienced in 2003 and 2006 across the UK, are around 1 in 8," it said

Reuters report here: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20070411/tuk...er-fa6b408.html

Met Office press release here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20070411.html

Full Forecast here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...2007/index.html

[Calrissian]

1 in 8 ?

I think they have it backwards. Surely it'd seem to be 8-1 against it being not a heatwave...again?

--

Ohh, and why are they using a 1971-2000 average? If they are looking at a 30yr average, does it not move by 1 year each year?

Why not the 1976-2006 average ?

Calrissian: curious

[acbrixton]

Ohh, and why are they using a 1971-2000 average? If they are looking at a 30yr average, does it not move by 1 year each year?

Why not the 1976-2006 average ?

Calrissian: curious

For no better a reason than the accepted meterological convention is to measure against set and not rolling 30 year averages! 1971-2000 is the current base-line and will be superceded by the 1981-2010 data from about 2012.

That said there is something to be said for the use of rolling 30 year averages especially where as now in the UK recent warming makes comparisons withg a fixed mean arguably misleading,

Regards

ACB

[Calrissian]

Hmm, ahh, thanks for that.

*maybe a topic in itself...but....

If it doesn't roll forward gradually, but only in jumps...then that makes no sense at all. One year temps are considred 'below average', but the next year, the temps are suddenly considered 'average'.

--

With April likely to have a CET of 10+, makes the 1 in 8 look ever more of a bizarre 'sit on the fence' comment.

[johnholmes]

as pointed out it is the accepted manner of referral with meteorology. 30 year averages as the base line, changed each ten years.

There is something to be said for a rolling average, be it 10, 20 50 years or even 200 years but I suspect it then gets more diffcult trying to get the figures.

[kold weather]

I'd have thought at least one heatwave is likely, even in some of the cooler ones ther eis usually at elast one day with really above average temps so not quite sure why they are saying 8-1 in that regards for. If they are talking aobut summer...wlel then heatwave is not the right way to talk about the summer, unless it truely is a never ending hea\twave like July 06, but with all three summer months and I don't think its what they mean by that either.

[Snowly does it]

I'd have thought at least one heatwave is likely, even in some of the cooler ones ther eis usually at elast one day with really above average temps so not quite sure why they are saying 8-1 in that regards for. If they are talking aobut summer...wlel then heatwave is not the right way to talk about the summer, unless it truely is a never ending hea\twave like July 06, but with all three summer months and I don't think its what they mean by that either.

Kold, as they specifically mention both 2003 ad 2006 I would guess they are referring to exceptional month long heatwaves such as the aforementioned August or July, and its a relief to know that there is only a limited chance of one of those!

I think they are calling a summer perhaps a half to a degree above the 71-00 (I.E slightly above average) which makes it actually 'average' of one takes out the GW effect - when we consider that they have clarified the fact that warmer than 71-00 summers are now commonplace with the accumulated warming and bearing in mind the relatively low 70% chance of 'warmer than 71-00' plus the long odds on a heatwave I think we can say that the MetO do not expect much of the summer heat-wise.

Whether they are correct is another matter

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some newspapers are saying we will have an even hotter summer than last year- again, quoting the Met Office entirely out of context.

[Mark Bayley]

Some newspapers are saying we will have an even hotter summer than last year- again, quoting the Met Office entirely out of context.

News papers exaggerate a lot. The daily express was saying we will be on standpipes soon :lol: . I hope the met office are right and there 1/8 chance of a Record breaking summer is correct :lol:

Edited April 13, 2007 by mark bayley

[Snowly does it]

Some newspapers are saying we will have an even hotter summer than last year- again, quoting the Met Office entirely out of context.

Quite, ridiculous misquoting for sensationalist purposes.

The BBC forecast last night had a different tale to tell, the forecaster stated summer looked like it might be 'slightly above' the 71-00 average.

[J10]

So 70% chance of being above the 71-00 average, considering the recent summers compared to average, I'd say the chances are higher than that.

[Stuart]

the metoffice have just update the summer forecast

30 May 2007

Latest update to Met Office summer forecast

The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office, updated today, still indicates that this summer is likely to be warmer than average.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

Current rainfall indications suggest that over the summer as a whole southern parts of the UK are more likely to experience average or below-average rainfall, while the north is more likely to see average or above-average rainfall.

Trevor Bishop, Head of Water Resources Management at the Environment Agency said: "Although water resources are generally in a healthy position, there's still no room for complacency. As summer approaches we shouldn't forget about saving water. An extended period of hot dry weather could start to put water supplies and the environment under pressure."

The Met Office works with the Environment Agency for England and Wales to review the water situation as we head into the summer. As well as water resource planning, the Met Office seasonal forecast is used in a wide range of sectors including the energy and financial markets.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20070530.html

[The PIT]

Ah well the new updated forecast improves the chances of a hot summer. Now at 6 in 1.

[johnholmes]

well this is what they actually gave out to everyone, we, the media etc.

The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office, updated today, still indicates that this summer is likely to be warmer than average.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

Current rainfall indications suggest that over the summer as a whole southern parts of the UK are more likely to experience average or below-average rainfall, while the north is more likely to see average or above-average rainfall.

the words they use are as above.

Any other words, 70%, temps of 0.5-1C above are an interpretation of what they mean.

I have no idea what they mean by 'high probability'. Presumably that means above 50% but whether that is 60, 70, 80 or 90% who knows other than the meteorologists who put together the press release.

If we use the summer values actually recorded for the country for the two years they quote then that gives a base.

Again what we do not know is are they implying any long hot spells by using those years as comparisons?

Maybe Mr Data can come to our aid with the relevant 'hot' spells, dates and durations, rainfall type etc?

Edited May 31, 2007 by johnholmes