Return for the Atlantic Lows [Next week}

[johnholmes]

tested it once

I'm sorry but 1 test is absolutely of no use mate. 10 perhaps, 100 yes.

Edited May 16, 2007 by johnholmes

[Zenarcher]

tested it once

I'm sorry but 1 test is absolutely of no use mate. 10 perhaps, 100 yes.

Well i only found it in january and ive only really found it now that it is accurate.

[johnholmes]

great you got an accurate steer from it, but as they say 'one swallow does not a spring make'.

When it is right 8 out of 10 times on a regular basis, even 7 out of 10, then it will be pretty good.

[Zenarcher]

Im going to test it on friday and saturday and see if it dose well.

[johnholmes]

keep a record of how it does, good and bad, and then with facts to prove or disprove it would be a good talking point to post your findings after, say mid October, so a 5 month checking period.

[Zenarcher]

Ok will do.

[johnholmes]

my own take, at the moment, largely from GFS guidance is that the W Isles may be the windiest with speeds Friday into Saturday, at times, of 50+ mph.

Models are quite good at giving an idea of windiness 3-6 days ahead, sometimes further out than that, but for fairly accurate ideas of speeds then its 48 hours that should give the best guidance.

Remember also that the speeds quoted are USUALLY for MEAN speeds. Gusts can be considerably higher than that. values are dependent to the overall 'roughness' of the surface, so anything from about 1.3X over sea and flat open country to as high as 1.7-2.0 for city centres.

Its the gustiness of the wind that causes the damage not the average speed.

This is partly why buildings in the exposed parts of the country often suffer less damage, apart from tile damage into walls et(!) than in cities. Also the building regulations are somewhat more strict for exposed areas other than tower blocks etc. By that I don't mean that they lax in cities.

Edited May 16, 2007 by johnholmes

[Mondy]

try the blog I did advertise for you yesterday Mondy. it will keep you up to date on what one 'so called' expert thinks!

and read what Paul B has posted, another one from the team!

How many 'expert' posts do you want chum?

Ta, jh. This is just an opinion, but i think you you should stick to posting your thoughts, like you have just a minute ago, on the actual thread. It'll get more views and people can easily identify the thread and views of others by keeping it all together. Your blog is a good idea, but it's only got 3 views, mate. Much more views are probably taking place on here,where people expect to see forecasters noting things with their expertise!

12z run

+39hrs. Big squeeze on the isobars off Ireland

+45 First winds affecting W.Ireland, NI

+48 Severe gales W.Ireland/NI?

+51 Western Isles turn

+54 Ireland looks like it'll be having a rought time

+57. 12z is the worst run i've seen so far particularly for NI/Ireland, western Isles. It looks like the return of a winter low. That's severe looking for the west.

+60. Midnight (Friday night). Theheight of the storm for many?

All in all, quite a bit different from what we've had since early January when the last of the severe gales blew away. A little out yet, but the models have consistently shown a deep area to lie west and north of the UK. The squeeze on the isobars at some stages looks quite worrying actually, but we'll see nearer the time.

Edited May 16, 2007 by Mondy

[johnholmes]

lets just agree to disagree Mondy.

I'll keep my blogs running and also we have the forecasters blogs.

The 'meat' of my thoughts for what they are worth will be in the blogs, either my own or the forecast blog thread.

[Snowyowl9]

This does look more like a winter storm looking at the GFS lots of cool air coming into the atlantic too.

Just hope it`s bark is worse than it`s bite looking at NI in particular.

[VillagePlank]

Beans make me windy!

[Zenarcher]

Update,

At 12am friday in the Atlantic 72mph and will move closer to the UK and the winds will ease down but the stormy weather will hit west and north of Ireland at 3am on friday to 6am on sunday bring 54mph gusts and for western scotland it will start getting windy at 9am on friday to 12pm on sunday and brin

g gusts up to 46mph.

But on sunday evening another low pressure will come from the north west with wind speeds of 64mph and will hit western scotland at 12am on monday to 9pm on monday bring gusts up to 54mph.

[Snowyowl9]

The strongest wind in May here in recent years is this with strong-gale force S-lys.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2002/...00120020522.png

That must of been unusual aswell as I`ve never seen a severe gale in May so that was the strongest winds since 1990 as I`ve just checked, even the later half of the 70s and 80`s no more than strong or gale force as I can remember.

Does anyone upnorth remember severe gales in May past years?

May is usually remembered more for heatwaves/thunderstorms and late snow.

Saying that here`s the fax no gale here anyway.

NI/NW Scotland could well be in the fireing line though.

Friday could be squally in the south too might just end up as windy as last week.

[johnholmes]

I've not got the stats to hand but Shetland has gales in every month of the year including May but again I have no idea when the last one occurred in May.

The more exposed parts of the W Isles are probably not that different either, again I have no data to prove that.

[Mondy]

High Seas.

Storm warnings

Storm warnings, issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.

Last updated on Wednesday 16 May 2007 at 2002.

All storm warnings currently in force

West Northern Section, issued on Wednesday 16 May 2007 at 2000

At 161200 UTC, low 54 north 36 west 992 expected 59 north 32 west 974 by 171200 UTC. Winds expected to reach storm force 10 at times up from 170600 UTC to 300 miles from the centre, except in the eastern quadrant. Winds in the western quadrant up to 200 miles from the centre could reach violent storm force 11 at times from 171800 UTC. from 171200 UTC, winds in the north of West Central Section could reach storm force 10 at times.

West Central Section, issued on Wednesday 16 May 2007 at 2000

At 161200 UTC, low 54 north 36 west 992 expected 59 north 32 west 974 by 171200 UTC. Winds expected to reach storm force 10 at times up from 170600 UTC to 300 miles from the centre, except in the eastern quadrant. Winds in the western quadrant up to 200 miles from the centre could reach violent storm force 11 at times from 171800 UTC. from 171200 UTC, winds in the north of West Central Section could reach storm force 10 at times.

It's obviously high seas, but there's not been many V11's mentioned for a few months on the high seas forecast. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine..._printable.html

Friday midnight - 18z run -

Friday midnight - 12z run --

Edited May 16, 2007 by Mondy

[Cookie]

looks like it could be an intresting end to the week

[Cookie]

I think I have a problem

Im finding myself getting excited by windy weather and its getting worse!!!

since finding out that thier was potintal for windy weather at the end of this week I have been really looking forward to it!!

I hope Im not the only one

[Coopsy]

New thread for May 17th onwards here http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=38147