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April CET


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Whatevr happens the first 5 days or so looks rather on the warm side, so we may well start off with a decntly above average first 5 days. Tommorow looks fairly warm but its really monday that looks most impressive, the beeb are progging 16-18C quite widely acorss England.

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL

The ten year rolling mean is 8.7C, and I'm seeing nothing to sugest a cold April, though the recent pattern of mild months with a single cold incursion may well persist as winter finally loses a fingerhold and slips away.

SSTs are falling back, and El Nino is now a memory, perhaps explaining some of the downward trend in (still positive) anomalies over the past 2-3 months.

The jet is still generally to our north and the first week or so seems above par, though clear nights may mix that up a little. March fell comfortably within the recent corridor, I'd back April to do the same, though perhaps slightly more top end, therefore:

9.6C

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

I'm not sure the CET for the first few days of the month will be that high. Yes the days do look quite warm, but depending on cloud amounts, nights could still be quite chilly. Much as we've experianced during the last few weeks this month, infact.

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
I'm not sure the CET for the first few days of the month will be that high. Yes the days do look quite warm, but depending on cloud amounts, nights could still be quite chilly. Much as we've experianced during the last few weeks this month, infact.

I agree, you can never quite tell, but if the breeze stays up then frost / cold is unlikely in any case unless we get polar source air. Also, the nights are shortening quickly now.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The first third of the month is likely to be rather warm, with a mean of approximately 9.5C CET. I give such a high figure because I think warm southerly influences may well turn up for Easter, giving warmer nights as well as warm days.

The middle of the month should be colder; I wouldn't rule out a brief cold northerly during this period, with a CET of about 7C for 11-20 April.

Final third of April should be warm again, with 9.5C CET.

So, my monthly prediction is 8.7C

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Posted
  • Location: colchester
  • Location: colchester

I have decide to base my April's CET on statical percentages, based on Hadley Centre's CET data. The last time Hadley recorded a 10 or above CET was in 1987 - 10.3, before that 1961 - 10.0, and remarkably there were 4 years in the 1940's with 10.0C or above! So it appears we are overdue a +10c April!

Also considering the model runs from this morning, my guess is...

April 2007 CET 10.1C

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
The first third of the month is likely to be rather warm, with a mean of approximately 9.5C CET. I give such a high figure because I think warm southerly influences may well turn up for Easter, giving warmer nights as well as warm days.

I think even with fairly cool nights (say mins of 2-4C) I think the maxes may wlel be so high on some days that the average may well come out close to that anyway, at least for the first 7 days anyway. I think what you say tohugh about the southerly is a good point though, such flows tednt obe more cloudy whuich help to prop up min temps. Its these mins have managed to keep March's CET below 8C IMO.

At least your going with 8.7C as well, makes me feel a touchbetter against my guess.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

I think a settled month mainly and quite warm,especially later.i will plump for 9.4C

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Well now here's a thing. SSTAs to our SW have started to drop off and continue to do so. I fancy this trend to continue over the next month which means I would place the upper bar at +1.5 (9.6C).

Change in SSTAs over the last month:

The decline of El Nino continues apace, so much so that La Nina looks iminent but for what it's worth the composites favour low pressure in the Atlantic and a strong SW'ly flow which almsot certainly deliver the 9.3 - 9.6 range.

However, the switching of the equatorial upper zonal winds and cold pooling associated with a solar minima tend to indicate much more blocking to our NW and a greater -ve height anomaly over Scandinavia delivering something of a NE'ly anomaly to the 850 hPa wind flow pattern:

Meantime, the upper Troposphere and Straotosphere continue to look cold although there is a hint that this cold and -ve height anomalies are beginning to fall back a little and the latest trend for polar height anomalies is for blocking over NE Canada which will prevent rampant warmth from taking hold.

Putting all these together, and taking account of the lastest ECM outputs, I favour an above average return but not excessively so.

Therefore.....

9.0C

GP

Edited by Glacier Point
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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

9.1c for me please

nigel

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Sorry that this may seem late but technically it is still March here in the US! I will go for 9.4C if that's possible. I forgot to make a guess last month so I've probably thrown away my good position in the table!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Scorcher, i am afraid you will be deducted some points for you officially late entry, i'll update the list tommorow.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I realize it is middle of the night there, but the sun is still up here, and it has obviously changed its fundamental structure, pumping out vast amounts of extra heat, also I am fairly sure your government will not be telling people about this but of course you will find out shortly after you wake up, so any prediction below 14.5 is bound to fall short.

BTW, April fool !!! :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

According to the lastest GFS run the 1st-5th will have an average temperature of 8.7c. 0.8c above the 61-90 average and 0.6c above the 71-000 average.

Average MAX; 14.4c (1.4c above normal)

Average MIN; 2.8c (3.2c below average)

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Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK

9.4C

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Posted
  • Location: Buckingham
  • Location: Buckingham

The final count for April is:

7.2: Tamara G

7.2: nin9inch9nails

7.5: Duncan McAlister

7.6: Rollo

7.7: Pudsey

7.8: Gavin P

7.8: Kentish Man

7.9: Blast From The Past

8.0: fishdude

8.1: sundog

8.2: The Pit

8.2: Great Plum

8.3: Snowyowl9

8.3: kelly F

8.3: Mr Maunder

8.3: Terminal Moraine

8.4: snowmaiden

8.4: Stu London

8.4: The Penguin

8.5: Don

8.5: senior ridge

8.6: Cymru

8.6: ukmoose

8.6: Bottesford

8.7: eddie

8.7: Cheeky Monkey

8.7: kold weather

8.7: Thundery wintry…

8.8: Mr Data

8.8: Optimus Prime

8.8: Paul Carfoot

8.8: osmposm

8.8: mark bayley

8.9: windswept

8.9: Stargazer

8.9: The Calm before…

9.0: PersianPaladin

9.0: slipknotsam

9.0: North-Easterly Blast

9.0: Joneseye

9.0: Glacier Point

9.1: Steve B

9.1: Anti-Mild

9.1: Somerset Squall

9.1: JACKONE

9.1: WBSH

9.1: stormchaser1

9.1: Megamoonflake

9.2: Intrepid

9:2: David Snow

9.2: Paul B

9.2: West is Best

9.2: fine wine

9.2: acbrixton

9.3: Paul Sherman

9.3: reef

9.3: JohnAcc

9.4: dapick2002

9.4: Mark H

9.4: phil n.warks

9.4: Duncan McAlister

9.4: Scorcher

9.4: Mammatus

9.5: Stephen Prudence

9.6: Breezy Brum

9.6: Stratos Ferric

9.9: snowfluff

10.1: Roger J Smith

10.1: mk13

10.3: Timmy H

10.6: summer blizzard

10.7: Snow-Man2006

10.8: Bessy

11.2: Vince

11.2: Gray-Wolf

12.5: Craig Evans

It's a bit early in the morning so if you spot a mistake or an omission let me know! A couple of late entries may get penalised I fancy...

Regards,

Moose

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