Easter Week 2007

[johnholmes]

hi

Just as a little exercise on how GFS, or any other model, seems to be shaping up 2 weeks ahead of the event.

Currently, and for a day or so, GFS has 'toyed' with the idea of a cold northerly. Today is no exception as the 06Z chart from this morning for 06Z on Good Friday 6th April shows.

It will be interesting to see if GFS has done(as our ex Devonian post would say) got a 'spot' that is accurate?

I'll try and put the chart for each day at 06Z for the Good Friday posted up to see how the event ends up.

John

[memories of 63]

Great idea John, looking forward to see how the 06z changes as we approach the event

[Gavin P]

I'm thinking cold and showery.

It'll have to be some spell to beat the cold and wetness of Easter 1998, though!

Edited March 22, 2007 by Gavin P

[Bottesford]

Shall keep an eye on this one. Having a party that night so got to decide if we can get the barbie out or get take away in! Hopefully the barbie...

[Costa Del Fal]

I think it will be quite warm and sunny.

[Stuart]

not sure yet

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my guess is anticyclonic dull and dismal with a temp of around 12oC like the coming days

www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.html, Easter Saturday also shows a high to our West

[Snowyowl9]

I wouldn`t be surprised to see a N-ly around easter with wintry showers about.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A northerly with snow showers would be quite typical of a varied spring; Spring 1982 was mostly warm but had cold northerlies coinciding exactly with Easter and May Day Holidays. 1995 followed a slightly different pattern, with heatwaves early in the holiday weekends, cooler cloudier ends, and then wintry spells straight afterwards.

As Gavin P said Easter 1998 would take some beating; I actually woke up to a snow cover on Easter Sunday that year, and Saturday, Sunday and Monday all featured sun and snow showers.

[The PIT]

Well since it's an Bank Holiday plus I may get a rest from looking after my Mother one of two things will happen.

1) It'll be cold and wet

2) or I'll be ill.

[Frosty.]

I was starting to think it would be a cold and showery Easter but now i'm thinking it will be warmish and settled as the Azores High ridges across britain and brings lots of sunshine and temps in the high teens to possibly low twenties in the south as we pick up a southerly flow eventually.

[Bobby]

I hope it's warm and sunny, I am fed up with our recent weather, let's get summer started.

[sundog]

i think it will be cold for easter with some heavy snow showers about and also some hard frosts,the last hard frosts of the season not that weve had many

[Don]

I hope it's warm and sunny, I am fed up with our recent weather, let's get summer started.

Lets have Spring first! Summer can wait till June.

[Thundery wintry showers]

As far as I can see, Easter could be pretty much anything; there is so much uncertainty. The GFS is consistently showing northerlies, and I reckon that there will be northerlies somewhere close by around that time- but they might miss Britain itself, or be timed prior to the Easter weekend.

As for my preferences, I'd be equally happy with a warm settled sunny Easter, a spring mix of sun & April showers, or an Arctic regime with sunshine and wintry showers, or any combination of the three; I should thus be relatively easily pleased, though I'd be dead against a cloudy Easter esp. if cool and drizzly.

[sunny scunny]

Hopefully a Greenland High and it will be very cold with strong and blustery northerly veering north east winds and frequent heavy wintry showers and night time frosts.

I think there is actually a realistic chance that this may not be too far wide of the mark!

Tamara

I would be happy with that as i enjoyed the last cold spell which brought a covering of snow 2 night running.Theirs plenty of time for mild weather during the year so why not have one more cold spell.

[grab my graupel]

Great Idea John, I shall look forward to that.

My personal view, although not my preference is that we will have a Northerly.

The reason I say this is because the other models are showing signs of something colder

developing, and also a Pattern has appeared frequently on the ensembles.

I think the GFS is performing badly ATM but we will start to see a Northerley

appear on a more frequent basis very soon.

Brian

[Frosty.]

I'm still going for an early heatwave, except for shetland where we never get heatwaves, we get lots of coolwaves up here for 12 months a year.

[Thunder Snow]

I'll go for a cold northerly with snow on high ground. Sleet/rain to lower levels and a slight frost by night.

[Weather-history]

It'll have to be some spell to beat the cold and wetness of Easter 1998, though! :o

We were very unlucky that the cold spell coincided with Easter. Spring 1998 was in the top 20 warmest springs on record with a very mild March and a warm May. The first and last third of April was pretty mild, it was the middle third that was cold and it just so happen Easter was in that period!

It got to 29.4C on Good Friday 1949.

[Frosty.]

It got to 29.4C on Good Friday 1949.

All you need is an early spanish plume and you will have 29.5C on Good Friday 2007. Simple innit. Intersting to see that in the day's before all this nonsence global warming the temperature could rise so high in 1949 during the pea souper industrial smog years. :o

[johnholmes]

the 06z GFS today for T+336=Good Friday 6 April 2007

Pretty similar to the run at the same time yesterday.

John

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm probably in a small minority here, but I enjoyed the Easter of 1998 up here in the North East- we'd had hardly a glimmer of sunshine during the first ten days of the month (3rd and 9th being the only two days to have so much as sunny intervals); and come Easter Saturday though Monday, we ended up with plenty of sunshine in between the snow showers and some towering Cb cells. I do remember sources around that time talking of "worsening weather" as the cold bright snowy conditions replaced the dull wetness and flooding, but regardless of what the media say, "worsening" is a subjective term.

At the moment, as John shows above, still a tendency with the GFS to toy with a cold northerly for Good Friday...

[Stuart]

I think we will see sunshine and snow showers becuse gfs been showing it for a few runs now

Edited March 23, 2007 by Stuart H

[memories of 63]

the 06z GFS today for T+336=Good Friday 6 April 2007

Pretty similar to the run at the same time yesterday.

John

John,

Don't you think that today's run is a little colder? Also, what's your opinion of the aAtlantic blocking strength?