Cool April 2007?- A 'busted' forcast?

[Lettucing Gutted]

The original spring forcast called for a Cool April 2007 however it looks like it could be a 'busted' forcast because http://www.lse.co.uk/ShowStory.asp?story=Y...nue_into_spring claims that the all of spring 2007 will be warm than average. Again more warm months...

[Calrissian]

Well, yes, more likely mild than not. It does amuse me how people are still getting surprised by this. Its not like its just happened in the last year or so. We're not into the tenth year of so of regularly higher than normal temps...and people are still surprised.

I look forward to some good early summer soon.

Calrissian: LOST

[WhiteFox]

The original spring forcast called for a Cool April 2007 however it looks like it could be a 'busted' forcast because http://www.lse.co.uk/ShowStory.asp?story=Y...nue_into_spring claims that the all of spring 2007 will be warm than average. Again more warm months...

Recent trends would suggest a warmer than average month, but why believe one forecast so much more than another? I don't see how a forecast can be bust when we are still more than three weeks away from the start of the month being forecast!

[Paul]

Lol, it's a tad early to suggest a forecast could be busted, the month hasn't even started yet!

[MAF]

well as others have said, it seems a bit early to knock down the forecast. things are not very accurate in LRF's, agreed, but that inaccuracy just amplifies the need to break down the LRF on a weekly basis. only then can you say it has been "busted"

[WhiteFox]

Perhaps he's forecasting that it is busted?

[Snowly does it]

We are in a warming trend, a month slightly above an historic average would be expected on more occasions than one below it so I wouldn't be at all surprised if its a warm one again.

Having said that, way too early to call, the MetO changed its mind a number of times over winter and may yet do over spring.

[Gavin P]

I would have thought its quite possible to get a cool April in an otherwise above average spring. Just look at 1998, for instance.

Edited March 11, 2007 by Gavin P

[summer blizzard]

Looks like a busted April forecast indeed.

[Gavin P]

The April CET isn't going through the roof though, summer blizzard. The cool nights are keeping it at a sensible level, and if the weather turns a lot cooler after mid-month I would say theres still the outside chance of at least getting an average April.

Edited April 7, 2007 by Gavin P

[Red Raven]

The April CET isn't going through the roof though, summer blizzard. The cool nights are keeping it at a sensible level, and if the weather turns a lot cooler after mid-month I would say theres still the outside chance of at least getting an average April.

I'd agree. The daytimes are very pleasant but the nights are frosty here, so much so that my average temp is 1 degree lower than the norm! With an mean of 6.4, mean max of 13.8 and mean min of -0.8.

[SP1986]

Is it really that warm though? The night are cold and the days are warm - to me that's average. If the nights were warm as well then it would be a different story!

[Gavin P]

Nights look like warming up quite a bit next week and with days getting even warmer, I expect that by this time next week to CET will be above 9c. However, that will still leave plenty of room for it to drop back again in the second half of the month, should we get any cooler/unsettled weather.

This week has just shown what a massive differance low minimums can make to the CET, even when your having maximums that are up to 5c above average.

Edited April 7, 2007 by Gavin P

[Lettucing Gutted]

I an dreading another long string of plus 10C "subtropical" nights this summer.

[summer blizzard]

Ironic, a slightly below average April was predicted, and we saw the warmest April on record.