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noggin

Winter 2007/2008

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Didn't a lot of people say we were in for greater freaquency of sleet and snow last year :)

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Most people got it wrong last winter, I do remember West is Best doing quite well mind you. My own forecast wasn't too great though the Feb CET forecast was very close indeed, Jan was way out!

For what its worth John I don't think that was the 06-07 forecast, because of this phrase:

It is very likely to be much cooler than last winter, which saw the domination of mild, zonal conditions.

Seems to me they are talking about the 07-08 winter, with the line in the quotes summing up the 06-07 winter nicely.

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They are talking about winter 2007-2008. If you look closely at the top of the page you will see it was posted on June 4th 2007

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They are talking about winter 2007-2008. If you look closely at the top of the page you will see it was posted on June 4th 2007

my apologies I got it wrong his/her forecast is indeed for the coming winter.

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Does anybody think that all the rain and the cooler tempratueres we have recently experianced will have an effect on the up coming winter. Things are changing the heavy rain we have had in the midlands and also on the east coast has been the kind of rain that has not been seen for years. My girlfriend said to me in mablethorpe 2 weeks ago that she had never seen rain like that in her life and she was origanally from weston-super-mare in somerset. My inital thoughts were that we were experiancing a late spring with april being so dry. If the seasons are out in the uk but not in the rest of the world this could be the problem were having. If our winter is now in spring then there is no cold air left when we get the chance. Alot of this is just ramble but gw in the uk seems to be happening alot quicker than elsewear. Maybe this is cause were reallly just a small isle and we notice it more.

The thing that anoys me the most is winter is usually one of the following:

Cold and Dry.

Warm and Wet

why cant we have cold and wet. The cold pooling to our north usually starts to build in late september and october. If you look back through the archive there is some majour differences to our winters the earlier this cold pooling starts to build, some years in the past pockets of cold air remained throughout the year.

The other point is hurricane season is in my oppinion slow to start this year, given the predictions that were made. I know it is still early in the season but if a below avarage hurricane season was to happen again like last year that wouldn't help our winter. I'm going to look at the gulf sst's in a minute and if I find anything intresting will post later.

Regards

Chris

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Didn't a lot of people say we were in for greater freaquency of sleet and snow last year :whistling:

Yes i saw that and predicted it myself but we had lots of percipitation just the temperatures never cooled as expected... but most people got a decent snowfall :)

As for this winter i think there is a 85% chance of it being colder than last year and a 45% chance of being similar to that of 2005/06. This winter is a very long way off but i think there will be a few cold snaps but mostly dominated by average wet spells.

SM06

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We've already had two named storms, we are already off to an above average start.

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We've already had two named storms, we are already off to an above average start.

really i wasn't aware of two named storms , I was aware of a storm that just made tropical storm status and then rapidly weekened. The slow start was quoted on hurricane city in there tropical video update.

An above avarage season would be great for me and would get rid of the long boring summer by following some of these majour storms.

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http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

The PDO anologues which matched the April and May 2007 values are:

2000

1970

1966

1965

1961

The following winters of those years saw PDO values ranging from 0.6 to -2.7, so from a PDO point of veiw, things are very good at the moment.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/mei.data

The MEI anologues which matched the April and May 2007 values are:

2004

1995

1979

The following winters of those years saw MEI values ranging from -0.6 to 1, so from a MEI point of veiw, we look to be seeing the required neutral or weak values.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data

The QBO anologues which matched the April and May 2007 values are:

2003

1998

1970

1954

The following winters of those years saw QBO values ranging from 6 to -17, so from a QBO point of veiw we look to see neautral or weak QBO values giving a bias towards weak statospheric warming events and a negative AO.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ent.ascii.table

The AO anologues which matched the April and May 2007 values are:

2006

1970

1955

The following winters of those years saw QBO values ranging from 2.3 to -2, so from a AO point of veiw there are mixed signals however all anoloogues saw negative AO values during February.

Given the anologues above, we have a high possibility of reaching the ENSO and PDO reqirements as they look perfect and i think that we can say with 70% confidence that we will have the required QBO values however the AO is a completle mysery, the winter of 1956 saw a <0C February while the winter of 2007 was one of the mildest on record however given the weak link between the PDO, MEI and QBO values with the AO, assuming that the QBO plays ball then i would say that we are looking at a negative AO winter, with the negativity increasing throughout.

DECEMBER

My call right now would be for a very mixed December, with the best chance of a build of pressure over Scandinavia during the first ten days of December, though i think that the Jet Stream would win out around mid-month resulting in a mild and wet end...

Temperature: Average (within 0.5C of 5.1C)

Rainfall: Slightly below average (within 25% of 75%)

JANUARY

My call right now would be for frequant spells of cold zonality dominating January, with the Jet Stream over the British Isles and pressure building over Greenland resulting in a lot of westerly weather but winds from the north becoming frequant with Europe becoming very cold...

Temperature: Average (within 0.5C of 4.2C)

Rainfall: Above average (within 25% of 150%)

FEBRUARY

My call right now would be for strong blocking over Greenland, with the Jet Stream pushed south of the British Isles resulting in cold zonality at the begging, but low pressure being pusheed further south bringin the prospect of Channel Lows and a lot of northery winds..

Temperature: Below average (within 0.5C of 1.2C)

Rainfall: Slightly below average (within 25% of 75%)

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Interesting call SB, todays long range CFS forecasts looks very close to your forecast for Feb for what its worth!

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From having looked at early autumn teleconnection ensembles and their history of somewhat erroneous projections....I can safely say that it is fruitless merely attempting to predict the winter until you are in the month of November (no earlier). One can then make speculations on the likely affects of NH sea-surface temps and current polar stratospheric\tropospheric temp profiles and their relationships to the prevailing synoptics observed at the present time. Until we start seeing the result (at the back-end of autumn) of NH oceanic peak temps and their effects on N-S temp gradients and the jet-stream as well as oceanic gyres\vortex migration....we can only make experimental crude guesses. Changes in jet-stream oscillations and net effects of suppressed convection over the MJO-migration zones are likely to affect the northward expanse of subtropical high pressure belts which often help steepen temp-gradients closer to our latitude as well as flatten the jet-stream. Less warmer mid-level air by these subtropical belts often means a less zonal situation and a more broken, meridional and often bifurcated flow. The whole set-up of interactions is insanely complex....and really, if we get bogged down in any particular synoptic pattern in late autumn...it is likely to screw up any 'forecast' conceived of later. There quite simply isn't enough data-capture distributed over the world to collect information suffice to cover real-world feedback mechanisms when they happen...particularly enough to input into the model runs. This data-gap is filled-in by what is affectivley computerized hypotheticals (a.k.a. 'guesses').

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From having looked at early autumn teleconnection ensembles and their history of somewhat erroneous projections....I can safely say that it is fruitless merely attempting to predict the winter until you are in the month of November (no earlier). One can then make speculations on the likely affects of NH sea-surface temps and current polar stratospheric\tropospheric temp profiles and their relationships to the prevailing synoptics observed at the present time. Until we start seeing the result (at the back-end of autumn) of NH oceanic peak temps and their effects on N-S temp gradients and the jet-stream as well as oceanic gyres\vortex migration....we can only make experimental crude guesses. Changes in jet-stream oscillations and net effects of suppressed convection over the MJO-migration zones are likely to affect the northward expanse of subtropical high pressure belts which often help steepen temp-gradients closer to our latitude as well as flatten the jet-stream. Less warmer mid-level air by these subtropical belts often means a less zonal situation and a more broken, meridional and often bifurcated flow. The whole set-up of interactions is insanely complex....and really, if we get bogged down in any particular synoptic pattern in late autumn...it is likely to screw up any 'forecast' conceived of earlier. There quite simply isn't enough data-capture distributed over the world to collect information suffice to cover real-world feedback mechanisms when they happen...particularly enough to input into the model runs. This data-gap is filled-in by what is affectivley computerized hypotheticals (a.k.a. 'guesses').

Also would like to add that amongst all the hypothetical winter LRF's....the METO seem to have had the most forecast reliability (if you can use such a word with lrf's lol).

Btw...I also fixed my original post (see above quote).

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The whole set-up of interactions is insanely complex....and really, if we get bogged down in any particular synoptic pattern in late autumn...it is likely to screw up any 'forecast' conceived of later.

A good example of how propagation weather patterns for a cold winter can change for the worse is from late 1988.

The year of 1988 consisted of 5 months that were consecutively though not exceptionally (other than July) below the 1960-1991 C.E.T average. Those months were:-

July 1988 14.7

August 1988 15.2

September 1988 13.2

October 1988 10.4

November 1988 5.2

However this pattern which promised a great winter was dramatically reversed with December 1988 kicking off the second warmest winter on record. Most of the period of December 1988 to October 1989 was way above average.

December 1988 7.5

January 1989 6.1

February 1989 5.9

March 1989 7.5

April 1989 6.6

May 1989 13

June 1989 14.6

July 1989 18.2

August 1989 16.6

September 1989 14.7

October 1989 11.7

November 1989 6.2

December 1989 4.9

April 1989 was the 5th coldest month of this period. It was colder than December 1988 and March 1989. It was not much warmer than January 1989, February 1989 or November 1989.

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I thought this thread was a little odd for this time of year - then I saw it was started last winter ;) Desperate times indeed!

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http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/mei.data

The MEI anologues which matched the April and May 2007 values are:

2003

2000

1978

1966

Current anologues suggest neutral or weak ENSO conditions this winter.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data

The QBO anologues which matched the April and May 2007 values are:

2005

2003

2001

1998

Current anologues suggest a moderately negative QBO this winter.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ent.ascii.table

The AO anologues which matched the April and May 2007 values are:

1998

1997

1993

1987

1971

1963

1957

Current anologues suggest a weakly negative AO this winter.

Current anologues would suggest a clyclonic, northerly winter.

Lookin good folks..

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but SB as has been explained many times, the big players, ie Met O UK do not use this system as its never been shown to give a good enough 'signal'.

Also look back at the 'signals' foretold last summer/autumn, not much help there with the winter which actually occurred !

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Well it's pretty much all speculation at this stage. Anything can and will happen betweeen now and Winter.

:D

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Well it's pretty much all speculation at this stage. Anything can and will happen betweeen now and Winter.

:)

And no signs of any major volcanic eruptions yet either :D

** stands back to await loads of volcanic possibilities from volcano watchers** :D

Dave

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but SB as has been explained many times, the big players, ie Met O UK do not use this system as its never been shown to give a good enough 'signal'.

Also look back at the 'signals' foretold last summer/autumn, not much help there with the winter which actually occurred !

Actually, i did post that anologues indicated all three months to be above average in temperature.

Right now i am not looking at individual anologues, i am trying to determain what phase each of the teleconnections will be in, and right now, i would say that the worst case senario is a slightly above average winter, best case, a true 1980's winter.

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http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/mei.data

The MEI anologues which matched the June and July 2007 values are:

2003

2000

1978

1966

Current anologues suggest neutral or weak ENSO conditions this winter.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data

The QBO anologues which matched the June and July 2007 values are:

2005

2003

2001

1998

Current anologues suggest a moderately negative QBO this winter.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ent.ascii.table

The AO anologues which matched the June and July 2007 values are:

1998

1997

1993

1987

1971

1963

1957

Current anologues suggest a weakly negative AO this winter.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

The PDO anologues which matched the June and July 2007 values are:

1989

1985

1979

1953

Anologues suggest a weakly positive PDO this winter.

Current anologues would suggest lower than average pressure, higher than average rainfall, lower than average temperatures, with the mean wind direction being northerly.

Lookin good folks..

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LRF's for winter are near on impossible to determine this far out, we are still in supposidly what is meant to be summer!

My best guess for the forthcoming winter is. " Possibly colder than summer was! " LMAO :doh:

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We have a +AO at the moment with the all important jet stream in the infamous GIN corridor again. Also the SSTS around us are above average again. These are definitely not good signals for the end of 2007 and the start of 2008.

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