January was the warmest globally ever recorded

[West is Best]

Apologies if this has been mentioned, but I noticed this news released on Sunday: that it was the warmest January ever recorded globally http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2007/02/18_ur.htm

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...jan/global.html

It's getting too ridiculous this, but then it looks like we're going to keep saying that.

[Bobby]

Blimey, look at those anomalies in Russia. Hugely above average. Bit scary.

Edited February 20, 2007 by Magpie

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not too surprised given the extent of the anomalies- I flagged up the NCDC article in the environment section.

February should be less warm globally looking at the temperature anomaly patterns and the decline of the El Nino, but there's no denying that January was astoundingly warm. There has been some strange anomalies with January recently; January 2005 was also exceptionally warm globally, while January 2006 stood out for only being slightly above the long-term average. I think there's much behind the view that positive NAO setups, characterised by a high-powered jet running through the continental landmasses, tends to produce higher +ve anomalies than negative NAO setups. This is because greater anomalies are possible over continental masses than over the oceans, due to SST modification.

What the past three Januarys show is that the NAO signal cannot explain all of the warming, and in any case, I subscribe to the view that the warming has, in itself, contributed to globally warm synoptics.

[Glacier Point]

Q: Which climatic index was also at ridiculously high (record breaking) values during this time ?

A: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ndex_ensm.shtml

We are building towards the winter conclusions and I think the state of polar field will figure highly in our discussions. It is not the only factor, but we should remember that this is largely influenced by Stratospheric conditions, which have similarly broken records for extent of cold conditions.

[kold weather]

Exactly GP, i said that to JS reently. El nino may not have helped but by far away the biggest reason for the N.Hemipshere warmth was that stupidly strong +ve AO phase we went through in December.

This effectivly severely limited the size of the cold pool over the Arctic as the jet was placed so much further north then normal and so a larger area of the N.hemisphere had the mild SW flow that we ourselves see quite often.

Couple to that was the fact that there was hardly NO blocking at all between the 1st Dec and the 15th of Jan. in fact its sad but the furtherest north high thorughout December globally was actually the high over the UK bwetween the 18-26th!!!

This meant that there was no jet amplication at all which obviously meant that no-where could get the cold air that was over the Arctic down, then you have to remember that the summer of 06 had a monsterly amplified pattern, to the extent that we had a record -ve NAO at one point, with Europe stuck very much on the warm side (hence record temps!!!) and all this massivly warm air powered its way into the Arctic and must hav had a impact on it as it tried to cool-down in autumn.

Eventually we got a more amplfied pattern by mid-late Jan but of course the problem was as we al lknow it takes a little while to establish colder feed, because the warm had dug in to such a extent that any cold air was modified far more then what you'd normally see. when you couple the first 25 days of really stupid warmth anyway (only by the 25-30th of Jan did the cold air really begin to dig down (note, the one area that saw blocking before was the wes tof the USa, whichg ot help from the Pac.Block fgrom the 15th, its not by chance that this area was one of the most below average globally.) but we also had a decaying El nino to deal with as well at this time which only further warmed things above what would otherwise be the case.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, I didn't factor the AO into account- that, too, may affect the global temperature anomaly patterns.

Before WIB points out the obvious, I'll also mention that I'm well aware that the NAO and AO are primarily measures of the mean pressure difference between certain regions and are thus largely measures of how the jetstream is behaving within those regions. The main point is that the NAO and AO can contribute either way to global temp anomalies- but it's hard to dispute the notion that the baseline is a good 0.5C or so higher than about 50 years ago.

Perhaps it can be said that January 2007 featured an exceptionally strong combination of AO and NAO for generating a positive global anomaly, while January 2006 featured such a combination that would ordinary lead to a negative anomaly. The baseline for mean global +ve temp anomaly is somewhere between the two, but closer to the January 2007 one due to the shifts in Northern Hemisphere circulation patterns. In any case, given that global circulation patterns have changed and we have a large cold pool over Asia and eastern Europe, the exceptional anomaly of January 2007 is unlikely to be repeated in February.

[kold weather]

Yep I think thats about right, i suspect the super +ve AO added about 0.45-0.65C on top of that from GW in the N.Hemipshere, El nino impacts also probably added another 0.2-0.3C globally on top of that so its not suprising when you add that to the GW baseline that you've got a record breaking outcome. By the way those values above are only rough!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yep I think thats about right, i suspect the super +ve AO added about 0.45-0.65C on top of that from GW in the N.Hemipshere, El nino impacts also probably added another 0.2-0.3C globally on top of that so its not suprising when you add that to the GW baseline that you've got a record breaking outcome. By the way those values above are only rough!

Yet ice coverage is not at or reach record minima!!!

BFTP

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes- this is probably because the inner Arctic has not been as warm as in the past couple of winters.

[Interitus]

The warmth of December and January was far too extensive to be explained by any jet oscillations. The finger points towards late freezing of the Arctic sea ice.

[Upgrade]

The warmth of December and January was far too extensive to be explained by any jet oscillations. The finger points towards late freezing of the Arctic sea ice.

Pretty damn scary that the world seems to be warming at .2 degree per decade and at an accelerating rate. What happens if in 20 years it is warming by .5 degrees C per decade? what do we do then? and will people still be in denial?

[DAVID SNOW]

Apologies if this has been mentioned, but I noticed this news released on Sunday: that it was the warmest January ever recorded globally http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2007/02/18_ur.htm

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...jan/global.html

It's getting too ridiculous this, but then it looks like we're going to keep saying that.

Januarys of the middle ages were a lot warmer than this years january.FACT.So i wonder who the viking settelers on greenland were blaming?They were probably very happy that greenland was a LOT warmer than it is today, otherwise their farming and crops would fail, then they would start to worry.Come the 1300s they did start to worry though because it became a lot colder, and they left.Too cold for farming and grazing.Very basic historical example i know, but i think we have been here before regarding warm januarys.

[Don]

Apologies if this has been mentioned, but I noticed this news released on Sunday: that it was the warmest January ever recorded globally http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2007/02/18_ur.htm

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...jan/global.html

It's getting too ridiculous this, but then it looks like we're going to keep saying that.

Well there's a surprise!

Seriously though, it is a tad worrying really.

[TEITS]

It's getting too ridiculous this, but then it looks like we're going to keep saying that.

Im sure your enjoying it though

Make the best of it though Richard it won't always be like this!.

[Don]

Pretty damn scary that the world seems to be warming at .2 degree per decade and at an accelerating rate. What happens if in 20 years it is warming by .5 degrees C per decade? what do we do then? and will people still be in denial?

I think we'll have to think about colonising Mars. At least with it being further away from the sun we wouldn't have to worry about GW so much!

On a more serious note, I think most people are starting to face up to global warming now. Although I believe we could well have entered a natural warming cycle at present, the fact that we are polluting the atmosphere with CO2 is probably accelerating which could lead it to get out of control. I think within the next 10 years, plans will be in place to tackle this problem.

Don

[Nick F]

Very worrying stats indeed, and comes on the back of an extraordinary year of warmth.

For a bit of balance, January 2006 saw well below average temps across large parts of Russia, Asia and Eastern/Central Europe:

During January 2006, temperatures were more than 3°C above average across Canada, the U.S., Scandinavia and the majority of China. Cooler than average temperatures were observed in the Iberian Peninsula, Algeria, Alaska, Eastern Europe, and most of Asia with some anomalies exceeding -5°C.

In Russia, a severe cold wave which arrived during January 17-18 brought some of the coldest temperatures to the region in decades. Moscow temperatures plummeted to -30°C (-22°F), or the coldest readings since the winter of 1978-1979, when temperatures dropped to -38°C (-36°F). The coldest temperature on record is -42.1°C (-44°F), set in 1940. There have been numerous cold-related deaths, primarily the homeless (Reuters). Snow and cold weather penetrated unusually far to the south in eastern Europe, with heavy snow forcing the closure of the Acropolis in Athens, Greece on the 25th. Cold weather was blamed for 66 deaths in Ukraine, 27 in Romania, 14 in Poland, 10 in the Czech Republic and three in Bulgaria (Reuters). Temperatures in eastern Europe dipped to -35°C (-31°F) in mountains of northeast Italy.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...rds.html#Winter

However, for land and ocean Jan 2006 was 13th warmest globally.

[Lettucing Gutted]

For a bit of balance, January 2006 saw well below average temps across large parts of Russia, Asia and Eastern/Central Europe:

I bet the overall mean temperatures even in those places were still above the 1960-1991 overall winter mean temperatures. Certainly the hot summer of 2006 would have offset those anomalies.

[Interitus]

Yet ice coverage is not at or reach record minima!!!

BFTP

Since 1979 ice coverage is about 10% less in winter and 20% in summer - it reached record lows for November and December last year. More alarmingly between 1958 and 1997 its thickness reduced by 40% - though this may have averaged more like 10-15% if it had been measured at different times - it's hard to be consistent as the ice is constantly moving.

There is an interesting article about this on the wunderground site at the moment.

[Upgrade]

Since 1979 ice coverage is about 10% less in winter and 20% in summer - it reached record lows for November and December last year. More alarmingly between 1958 and 1997 its thickness reduced by 40% - though this may have averaged more like 10-15% if it had been measured at different times - it's hard to be consistent as the ice is constantly moving.

There is an interesting article about this on the wunderground site at the moment.

with the sea now starting this spring a good 2 degrees warmer than normal , we could get an amazing heatwave this summer and an even milder winter next year!

[DAVID SNOW]

with the sea now starting this spring a good 2 degrees warmer than normal , we could get an amazing heatwave this summer and an even milder winter next year!

or we could have a cool wet summer and sea temps could drop back to normal come the late autumn, and we could have a cold/average winter.

[kold weather]

Nic,, as amamzingly beow average as Asia was, note just how warm the USA was as well as parts of Africa, this in itself would balance out that cold mass that was no doubt present.

I don't think that Jan 07 will have as severe extremes as the 06 charts, just that it will be more uniform warmth I suspect across the N.hemisphere, though Feb 07 may well be a little more mixed because of a much more amplified jet patterns thanks to blocking upstream.

[Optimus Prime]

Just look how cold parts of the USA was last month...

34th coldest February ever. Six states were warmer then average. Alaska was 42nd warmest on record (0.8c above normal)

Two states were tied in the 4th coldest February on record.

[summer blizzard]

Do we know what March was in referance to global anomolies, and could a moderator change the title of this thread to something like global temperatures??

[Don]

Do we know what March was in referance to global anomolies, and could a moderator change the title of this thread to something like global temperatures??

I imagine that March was another warm month globally.

I also think it would be a good idea to change the thread title.

[summer blizzard]

Does anybody have data for February, March and April?????