06z model discussion - snowing now and what after?

[The PIT]

Well I'm just looking at Saturday a repeat event?????

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well I'm just looking at Saturday a repeat event?????

Saturday indeed looks interesting! In the longer term expect less cold and pretty stormy conditions next week as the Jet becomes southerly and flat across the US sending storms right into our path then a very very cold last 10 days of Feb. Hope all are enjoying this very marginal event....mind you AGW SW is up to 7C!!!!!

BFTP

[Duane S.]

I see very little to get excited about for the near to medium future. Everything is pointing to a reasonably prolonged return of the atlantic. Saturday will end up being a non-event for the vast majority.

And I disagree that the cold snap appeared at short notice, the charts have been showing (or at least hinting) this for a couple of weeks. I should know, I was harping on about it enough back then. Well, now they are doing the same with regards a not so cold spell of weather driven by a GL PV. Good prospects of some decent, if not unusual for February, storms to head our way though.

Enjoy today folks.

[memories of 63]

In the immediate future, and I agree that the next few days are critical, I think the GFS is underplaying the height rises to our North. I've been watching this and each run the height gets bigger and more macho. Wouldn't this tend to flatten the LP further, squeezing it into the narrow slice between the jet to our south and the northerly heights! Looking at the progression, this could allow the Scandi HP to encroach from our East giving rise to a beast over the w/e and reloading the cold/less cold battle, but this time over N mids and points north

PS tried to post this last night but was kicked off by the server going down

[Troubleatmill]

I see very little to get excited about for the near to medium future. Everything is pointing to a reasonably prolonged return of the atlantic. Saturday will end up being a non-event for the vast majority.

And I disagree that the cold snap appeared at short notice, the charts have been showing (or at least hinting) this for a couple of weeks. I should know, I was harping on about it enough back then. Well, now they are doing the same with regards a not so cold spell of weather driven by a GL PV. Good prospects of some decent, if not unusual for February, storms to head our way though.

Enjoy today folks.

yes the models picked up the greenie high a couple of weeks ago but at this time it was only progging a northerly , with not a lot hinting at what has actually going happen , i remember looking at the charts thinking normal places to be hit -northern scotland & east coast & then back to westerlies , it was infact the JMA who first picked up on the hight rises to the northeast , i think it was sunday/ monday? but it was mocked by one & all ( including myself)

Edited February 8, 2007 by arron123

[North-Easterly Blast]

The 00z GFS run is basically a stinker for the medium to long range, it develops a stinking Bartlett High at 216-240hrs, and most ensemble members back this up. This will be curtains for the rest of the winter as it will most likely lead to prolonged mild Bartletty weather later in February and early March. Just one degree of comfort there are a few ensemble members but not all, going for a return of northern blocking at 336hrs out. The ECM looks a little more comforting than GFS, its not very inspiring in the medium term but it does show a Scandy High developing at 240hrs, although the UK is not cold but has potential.

[Frosty.]

I see very little to get excited about for the near to medium future. Everything is pointing to a reasonably prolonged return of the atlantic. Saturday will end up being a non-event for the vast majority.

Pity you missed out on the blizzards which are raging across wales and the midlands as I type this. Better luck next time. As for the atlantic returning, that is inevitable in the even larger teapot. FI starts on saturday so nothing is set in stone yet.

[Weather-history]

, that is inevitable in the even larger teapot. .

And in most winters of the past

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Well I'm just looking at Saturday a repeat event?????

Do you think this is a possibility Pit ?, it looks so marginal as to be heading into the 'unlikely' category at present, except perhaps for the highest hills in N. England, (and of course Scotland !)

[Weather-history]

Do you think this is a possibility Pit ?, it looks so marginal as to be heading into the 'unlikely' category at present, except perhaps for the highest hills in N. England, (and of course Scotland !)

Upper air temps for 60hrs on UKMO 0z

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW60-7.GIF

Depends on what model you believe.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well, the Atlantic returning may be inevitable, but the stinking thing is it is nowadays almost always the zonal Bartlett type and not the cold zonal January 1984 type. Although the Met Office have hinted at the chance of further cold spells with snowfall during February and that these are likely to extend into March, it certainly looks poor for this on this morning's runs if a Bartlett develops at 240 like GFS is suggesting and most ensemble members back up. GEM is also a stinker too in the long range with a Bartlett in the latter stages. GFS offers a little more comfort right at the end and in most ensembles (336+) but that is way way out and the stinking Bartlett comes before it.

Right now, Scandinavia has become very cold, and we are going to miss the cold air YET AGAIN! Another case of close, but no cigar this month.

[kold weather]

Saturday is very intresting indeed, the UKMO 0z looks like a snow event north of S.Midlands with the air probably eing cold enough though the main focus will shift further north, for areas that missed out today you may well see snow on Saturday as it seems like it takes seveeral blows to finally knock the cold air out of the way.

northeasterly, wouldn't worry about the bartlett at 240hrs, accoridng to the GFS 10 days ago (240hrs we were meant to have a weak bartlett today:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/...ef34350a1493c24

just a touch off then!

Edited February 8, 2007 by kold weather

[Paul]

Have updated the thread title to reflect the fact we're heading towards the 06z's.

Don't forget all the models are available in the datacentre:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home

Please stay on topic. We've hopefully identified the problem with uploading images and should have that sorted soon..

[Mr Sleet]

Well, the Atlantic returning may be inevitable, but the stinking thing is it is nowadays almost always the zonal Bartlett type and not the cold zonal January 1984 type. Although the Met Office have hinted at the chance of further cold spells with snowfall during February and that these are likely to extend into March, it certainly looks poor for this on this morning's runs if a Bartlett develops at 240 like GFS is suggesting and most ensemble members back up. GEM is also a stinker too in the long range with a Bartlett in the latter stages. GFS offers a little more comfort right at the end and in most ensembles (336+) but that is way way out and the stinking Bartlett comes before it.

Right now, Scandinavia has become very cold, and we are going to miss the cold air YET AGAIN! Another case of close, but no cigar this month.

No Cigar ? I'm sitting here looking at 6 inches of snow , and still snowing, from a westerly frontal system ( which some on here had more or less said was never going to happen again) and I can assure you I have in my mouth the biggest , smoking Havana you have ever seen. One thing we should have learnt by now is that in this set up, the models don't cope well at all past 96 hrs.

And the 06Z gfs already has the colder air further south on saturday. More snow for us again I think, and hopefully , for everybody.

Edited February 8, 2007 by Mr Sleet

[R.P. McMurphy]

Upper air temps for 60hrs on UKMO 0z

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW60-7.GIF

Depends on what model you believe.

Rubbish in Irlam isn't it Mr Data.

Models were showing snow reaching us, and it barely has.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The models seem to have fallen into agreement now; we will have a snow event moving north today (significant accumulations in some central and western areas, but probably a wintry mix near the east coast due to the onshore wind- the temp here in Cleadon shot up from -2.1C to 4C when the wind picked up!). Friday looks like being a cold day with a good deal of cloud and scattered wintry showers in the east.

Saturday doesn't look to me like being a non-event for the vast majority; temps look to be about the same near the east coast, while in central and western areas they are only a degree or so higher, so still a chance of major snowfalls Saturday especially on high ground.

It looks like we will have to accept that the Atlantic will return to all parts by Monday. Re. North-Easterly Blast's post, it's ironic that when the models were showing the Atlantic returning for Friday, the westerly regime looked decidedly cool zonal; but due to the different airmass trajectories in the current setup, it looks like being average to fairly mild. However, the usual caveat of ">T+168 = FI" still applies, and a Bartlett is by no means guaranteed to see out the rest of February; those height rises to our north may yet make their presence felt later in the month. Remember that the event of 5-7 February 1996 was abruptly followed by the return of the Atlantic, and that the Atlantic didn't last too long as north Atlantic blocking and north-easterly incursions repeatedly cropped up during the rest of that month.

Yes, it would've been a more exciting event had the high built from the north ushering in those ENE'lys, with massive instability over the anomalously warm North Sea (we're even getting hefty showers from a SE'ly at the moment, which isn't that common), but at least some of us have seen some of the white stuff, and many more of us will see some more in the next three days.

[Weather-history]

Rubbish in Irlam isn't it Mr Data.

Models were showing snow reaching us, and it barely has.

Going off Rob McElwee's updated forecast last night it wasn't even supposed to be here by now. I'm surprised to see it snowing here after seeing that broadcast.

[memories of 63]

06z shows the cold front moving more south than before and then pivoting to give more of an E/W split. W. Yorks is under less than -5º C air (950HpA) until Sunday now. I think FI is still T+96 as the change seems too abrupt with what we've seen so far over the last couple of days.

edit - sorry I've just looked at the 500HpA charts and I mean FI is t+60

Edited February 8, 2007 by memories of 63

[PB22]

06z shows the cold front moving more south than before and then pivoting to give more of an E/W split. W. Yorks is under less than -5º C air (950HpA) until Sunday now. I think FI is still T+96 as the change seems too abrupt with what we've seen so far over the last couple of days.

I would place FI as being at Saturday at the moment to be honest, so T+54/T+60 hours. Cold air is never going to be far away from the north and east, and today's system will pull some of that back south and west later on. I suspect this will be hanging around still on Saturday. Where's Saturday's low tracks is still open to a bit of debate, but the key word again seems to be "south".

[johnholmes]

got to agree with you Paul. Its still very much open as to just what will happen Saturday.

The easy bit is something like this:-

cold at first with sleet or snow in places but turning milder over the next few days!

[January Snowstorm]

Far too many ifs and buts.

The atlantic is guaranteed to win through as it has done already over Ireland.

Great news for all who got snow but for Ireland even the highest hills got rain last night

There is no battle just the atlantic winning and next week looking mild.Where are we then??? The end of February and start of Spring(I object to saying end of Winter because what we got this year doesn't define a winter)

[Glacier Point]

06z leaves margin for error in terms of just how big a snow event we could be looking at...

On the face of it, 850 hPa values look a little too high for midlands south:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs482.gif

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs483.gif

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs542.gif

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs543.gif

But surface values likely to be underestimated given the blanket now falling and sharp frost tonight and likely Friday:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs484.gif

850 winds projected from the south but surface winds strong easterly which could draw in cold air from the near continent:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs485.gif

The placement of the 528 DAM line is pretty consistent with most recent UKMO Fax so at the moment it looks like a snow to rain scenario for the midlands but this will be very susceptible to tiny shifts and timing ahead of the front - especially that tongue of cold air to the east.

Fax updates should be quite informative, as they always are.

GP

[memories of 63]

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QUOTE(Paul B @ 8 Feb 2007, 10:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would place FI as being at Saturday at the moment to be honest, so T+54/T+60 hours. Cold air is never going to be far away from the north and east, and today's system will pull some of that back south and west later on. I suspect this will be hanging around still on Saturday. Where's Saturday's low tracks is still open to a bit of debate, but the key word again seems to be "south".

Interstingly, the jet shows some northerly bulges that dissipate just before getting to the Uk. This is allowing the heights over the north Uk to push the LP lower, flattening it and making a beast more likely. The third bulg in the jet (T+56 - 60) doesn't get dissipated as quick, thus catalysing the rapid change in the position of the LP the E of the UK. I can't see why this would happen so quickly and therefore I agree.

Model watching (especially for those unfortunates who are 40 miles too far north) will be enthralling obver the next couple of runs.

[philmes]

fairly diabolical FI again.

[snowingtequila]

GMTV ends at 9.25am?

Does anyone remember Dawlish?

Well he made a prediction a couple of weeks ago on The Weatheroutlook that there would be no widespread lowland snow this winter?

OOPS!!

[/quote

well we have gone past the SCOD so it cannot be snowing anywhere can it?